AkashicIowa — Governor
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 67% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 17-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Rob SandDNominee |
| Zach LahnRNominee |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) declined to seek a third term. Primary held June 2, 2026. SURPRISE: businessman Zach Lahn upset Trump-aligned U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra in the GOP primary; Democrat Rob Sand (state auditor) was unopposed. Libertarian Nicholas Gluba was disqualified from the general ballot. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the IA state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kim ReynoldsR | R+19 |
| 2018 | Kim Reynolds/Adam GreggR | R+3 |
| 2014 | Terry BranstadR | R+22 |
| 2010 | Terry BranstadR | R+10 |
| 2006 | Chet CulverD | D+10 |
| 2002 | Tom VilsackD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 377 LV | Sand 51·Feenstra 39 | D+12 |
| GBAO StrategiesD | Mar 10–16 | 1,200 LV | Sand 50·Feenstra 42 | D+8 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →