AkashicConnecticut — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Ryan FazioRPresumptive |
| Ned LamontDIncumbent |
| Josh ElliottD |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Ned Lamont (D) is seeking a third term; he won the May 16 Democratic convention endorsement (74.6%) but Josh Elliott qualified to force the Aug 11 Democratic primary. Ryan Fazio won the GOP convention with 92%; Betsy McCaughey failed to reach the 15% threshold and endorsed him, so Fazio is the de facto Republican nominee with no contested GOP primary, though the statewide primary date has not yet passed. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CT state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Ned LamontD | D+13 |
| 2018 | Ned Lamont And Susan BysiewiczD | D+3 |
| 2014 | Dannel MalloyD | D+2 |
| 2010 | Dannel MalloyD | D+1 |
| 2006 | Jodi RellR | R+28 |
| 2002 | John G. RowlandR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →