AkashicVermont — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 90% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 6-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Phil ScottRIncumbentPresumptive |
| Aly RichardsD |
| Amanda JanooD |
Declared candidates. Not an open seat: Vermont has 2-year terms with no term limit; popular moderate incumbent Gov. Phil Scott (R) announced May 28 2026 he is running for a 6th term, with no serious primary challenger (presumptive). The Democratic primary (Aug 11, not held) is contested with no clear front-runner (declared Democrats include Aly Richards, Amanda Janoo, and Jeffrey Wilson). Scott routinely wins this blue state by wide margins. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the VT state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Phil ScottR | R+50 |
| 2022 | Phil ScottR | R+47 |
| 2020 | Phil ScottR | R+41 |
| 2018 | Phil ScottR | R+15 |
| 2016 | Phil ScottR | R+9 |
| 2014 | Peter ShumlinD | D+1 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →