AkashicCalifornia — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
No prediction market is trading California — Governor yet.
When a liquid two-party market opens on Polymarket for this race, its implied odds will appear here beside our model. We show only real market prices — never an estimated one.
| Candidate |
|---|
| Xavier BecerraDNominee |
| Steve HiltonRNominee |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Gavin Newsom (D) is term-limited. California top-two primary held June 2, 2026; Democrat Xavier Becerra (former HHS Secretary / ex-state AG) and Republican Steve Hilton (Trump-endorsed, ex-Fox host) advanced to the November general. Becerra led (~28%) with Hilton (~25%). Results certify July 10, 2026, but the top-two finishers are settled. Tom Steyer and Katie Porter did not advance. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CA state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Gavin NewsomD | D+18 |
| 2018 | Gavin NewsomD | D+24 |
| 2014 | Jerry BrownD | D+20 |
| 2010 | Jerry BrownD | D+13 |
| 2006 | Arnold SchwarzeneggerR | R+17 |
| 2002 | Gray DavisD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →