Akashic
1876–2024
Governors / Governor

California — Governor

ForecastA single, locked expectationas of June 22, 2026. Predicted outcomes, never results.

The call

Safe D

We expect Democratic to win 91%.

RatingSafe D
Win probabilityD 91%
Predicted marginD+20.1
The substrate
2024 baselineD+20.1
2022 resultD+18.4
Seat held byDemocratic

The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CA state page.

On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →