Akashic
1876–2024
Governors / Governor

Arkansas — Governor

ForecastA single, locked expectationas of June 22, 2026. Predicted outcomes, never results.

The call

Safe R

We expect Republican to win 98%.

RatingSafe R
Win probabilityR 98%
Predicted marginR+30.6
The substrate
2024 baselineR+30.6
2022 resultD+28.0
Seat held byRepublican

The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AR state page.

On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →