AkashicArkansas — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 2%; raw Republican YES price 95%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Sarah Huckabee SandersRIncumbentNominee |
| Fredrick LoveDNominee |
| Colt ShelbyLibertarianNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is running for re-election and won the GOP nomination unopposed. Primary held March 3, 2026. Democrat Fredrick Love (state senator) won his primary with ~81%. Libertarian Colt Shelby also on the general ballot. Sanders heavily favored. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →