HarrisDemocratic33.6%396,905TrumpRepublican64.2%759,241KennedyOther1.1%13,255
R+30.6- Lead
- 362,336
- Total
- 1,182,676
- vs nation
- R+29.2
- Turnout
- 52.7%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+30.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 3,049,3912024 5-year
- Population density
- 59 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 51,992 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $60,7732024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 67.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 14.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+73.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+38.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Tennessee, TN · twin score 86.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 52.7%1,182,676 participants ÷ 2,245,940 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 37.9%–38.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 1,095,195 | 2,175,338 | 50.3% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 790,656 | 2,195,870 | 36.0% | E/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 1,219,069 | 2,219,479 | 54.9% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 896,423 | 2,233,468 | 40.1% | E/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 1,182,676 | 2,245,940 | 52.7% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 147/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:lower bound:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 278/137.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 151/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:lower bound:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 284/182.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 155/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
86.4%
189,529 votes · D+73.9
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 81.8%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
68.8%
445,751 votes · R+38.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 64.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1992
505,823votes
53.2% of the vote · D+17.7
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 499,614 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
760,647votes
62.4% of the vote · R+27.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 759,241 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+57.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+31.9 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · +56.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+32.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+27.6 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +29.9 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governor
Sarah Huckabee SandersnomineeFredrick LovenomineeColt Shelbynominee
Incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is running for re-election and won the GOP nomination unopposed. Primary held March 3, 2026. Democrat Fredrick Love (state senator) won his primary with ~81%. Libertarian Colt Shelby also on the general ballot. Sanders heavily favored.
U.S. Senate
Tom CottonnomineeHallie ShoffnernomineeJeff Wadlinnominee
Incumbent Tom Cotton (R) won the March 3, 2026 primary (81.6%) seeking a third term. Hallie Shoffner won the Democratic primary (78.3%). Jeff Wadlin was nominated by the Libertarian Party of Arkansas convention (Feb 22, 2026) and is on the general ballot.
U.S. House elections · 100 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R 4 | 31.3% | 66.8% | 1,144,800 | |
| R 4 | 30.4% | 66.8% | 895,102 | |
| R 4 | 28.0% | 70.2% | 1,179,396 | |
| R 4 | 35.2% | 62.6% | 889,298 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 1,786,840 |
| 2020 | 1,831,414 |
| 2022 | 1,805,777 |
| 2024 | 1,835,723 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+14,475 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +89,955 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +5,996 |
| 2012 | −1,293 |
| 2013 | −2,150 |
| 2014 | −3,371 |
| 2015 | −106 |
| 2016 | +1,069 |
| 2017 | +3,981 |
| 2018 | +2,294 |
| 2019 | +2,515 |
| 2021 | +16,218 |
| 2022 | +18,583 |
| 2023 | +17,825 |
| 2024 | +13,919 |
| 2025 | +14,475 |
The only state to give either party a majority in 1992 went to Donald Trump by 30.6 points in 2024.
- The lone majority, 1992
- Clinton 53.2% — the only state either party cleared 50% in the Perot three-way · MIT Election Lab
- Swing since 1992
- D+17.7 (1992) → R+30.6 (2024), a 48-point reversal in margin · MIT Election Lab
- Solidly Republican now
- All seven statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and all four U.S. House seats · Akashic officeholder roster, 2026
- Among the poorest
- Median household income $60,773 — 47th of 50; bachelor’s degrees 48th · ACS 2024 5-year
- Bible Belt
- 38.2% Evangelical adherents — 4th-highest of any state · 2020 U.S. Religion Census
- Springdale’s Marshallese
- The largest Marshallese community in the U.S., drawn by poultry work · ACS 2024; Encyclopedia of Arkansas
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Tennessee
Tennessee
86.4twin score
% Evangelical2016–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
86.1twin score
% Evangelical2008–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Alabama
Alabama
80.0twin score
% Evangelical2008–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/AR/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Arkansas at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Arkansas
Frequently asked questions
How did Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arkansas voted Republican by 30.6 points (R+30.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,182,676 votes cast, 396,905 went Democratic and 759,241 went Republican.
When did Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arkansas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Arkansas?
Arkansas has a population of 3,049,391 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arkansas?
Median household income in Arkansas is $60,773 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Arkansas from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 11 went Republican.