HarrisDemocratic19.1%1,501TrumpRepublican79.4%6,230KennedyIndependent0.8%66
R+60.2- Lead
- 4,729
- Total
- 7,851
- vs nation
- R+58.8
- Turnout
- 57.4%
Akashiccounty
Marion County, AR
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 57.4% of 13,804 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic20.4%1,531TrumpRepublican77.1%5,783JorgensenLibertarian0.9%65
R+56.7- Lead
- 4,252
- Total
- 7,503
- vs nation
- R+61.1
- Turnout
- 55.8%
ClintonDemocratic20.7%1,434TrumpRepublican77.0%5,336JohnsonLibertarian2.3%157
R+56.3- Lead
- 3,902
- Total
- 6,927
- vs nation
- R+58.4
- Turnout
- 53.4%
ObamaDemocratic28.9%2,037RomneyRepublican67.7%4,774GrayLibertarian2.1%149
R+38.8- Lead
- 2,737
- Total
- 7,051
- vs nation
- R+42.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic33.3%2,384McCainRepublican63.2%4,524OtherAll other candidates3.5%254
R+29.9- Lead
- 2,140
- Total
- 7,162
- vs nation
- R+37.2
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic37.9%2,602BushRepublican60.1%4,127OtherAll other candidates2.0%138
R+22.2- Lead
- 1,525
- Total
- 6,867
- vs nation
- R+19.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic37.1%2,233BushRepublican56.6%3,402NaderGreen3.7%220
R+19.4- Lead
- 1,169
- Total
- 6,015
- vs nation
- R+20.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.7%2,735DoleRepublican37.7%2,312PerotReform12.5%764
D+6.9- Lead
- 423
- Total
- 6,125
- vs nation
- R+1.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+60.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 17,2282024 5-year
- Median household income
- $48,6192024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+65.5 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+60.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Newton County, AR · twin score 89.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 57.4%7,920 participants ÷ 13,804 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +10.5 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.9%–46.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 7,186 | 13,449 | 53.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 5,192 | 13,336 | 38.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 7,531 | 13,493 | 55.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,187 | 13,655 | 45.3% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 7,920 | 13,804 | 57.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
29 precincts · 7,851 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 06Precinct 06 | 250 | 712 | 24 | 986 | 25.4% | 72.2% | R+46.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 08Precinct 08 | 144 | 786 | 11 | 941 | 15.3% | 83.5% | R+68.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 16Precinct 16 | 135 | 595 | 12 | 742 | 18.2% | 80.2% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 09Precinct 09 | 76 | 451 | 7 | 534 | 14.2% | 84.5% | R+70.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 26Precinct 26 | 59 | 378 | 9 | 446 | 13.2% | 84.8% | R+71.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 30Precinct 30 | 84 | 336 | 6 | 426 | 19.7% | 78.9% | R+59.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 02Precinct 02 | 92 | 326 | 3 | 421 | 21.9% | 77.4% | R+55.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 17Precinct 17 | 70 | 321 | 8 | 399 | 17.5% | 80.5% | R+62.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 25Precinct 25 | 71 | 323 | 2 | 396 | 17.9% | 81.6% | R+63.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 20Precinct 20 | 59 | 260 | 2 | 321 | 18.4% | 81.0% | R+62.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 19Precinct 19 | 63 | 252 | 3 | 318 | 19.8% | 79.2% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 03Precinct 03 | 61 | 236 | 5 | 302 | 20.2% | 78.1% | R+57.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 18Precinct 18 | 35 | 187 | 5 | 227 | 15.4% | 82.4% | R+67.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 23Precinct 23 | 39 | 168 | 7 | 214 | 18.2% | 78.5% | R+60.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 24Precinct 24 | 28 | 132 | 0 | 160 | 17.5% | 82.5% | R+65.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 28Precinct 28 | 27 | 113 | 1 | 141 | 19.1% | 80.1% | R+61.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 01Precinct 01 | 43 | 81 | 2 | 126 | 34.1% | 64.3% | R+30.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 04Precinct 04 | 36 | 87 | 2 | 125 | 28.8% | 69.6% | R+40.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 17 | 99 | 1 | 117 | 14.5% | 84.6% | R+70.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 15Precinct 15 | 19 | 75 | 1 | 95 | 20.0% | 78.9% | R+58.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 05Precinct 05 | 29 | 61 | 1 | 91 | 31.9% | 67.0% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 14 | 66 | 3 | 83 | 16.9% | 79.5% | R+62.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 07Precinct 07 | 17 | 56 | 0 | 73 | 23.3% | 76.7% | R+53.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 21Precinct 21 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 51 | 11.8% | 86.3% | R+74.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 13Precinct 13 | 10 | 26 | 1 | 37 | 27.0% | 70.3% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 14Precinct 14 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 27 | 14.8% | 81.5% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 27.8% | 66.7% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 29Precinct 29 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 27.8% | 66.7% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 22Precinct 22 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 16 | 18.8% | 81.3% | R+62.5 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +54.6% |
| 1896 | +55.6% |
| 1900 | +41.2% |
| 1904 | +23.5% |
| 1908 | +28.9% |
| 1912 | +37.7% |
| 1916 | +48.1% |
| 1920 | +28.8% |
| 1924 | +41.5% |
| 1928 | +25.1% |
| 1932 | +65.5% |
| 1936 | +38.5% |
| 1940 | +45.3% |
| 1944 | +33.8% |
| 1948 | +48.2% |
| 1952 | +13.0% |
| 1956 | +10.6% |
| 1960 | −2.4% |
| 1964 | +20.8% |
| 1968 | −12.1% |
| 1972 | −35.0% |
| 1976 | +18.6% |
| 1980 | −18.9% |
| 1984 | −29.0% |
| 1988 | −18.5% |
| 1992 | +11.8% |
| 1996 | +6.9% |
| 2000 | −19.4% |
| 2004 | −22.2% |
| 2008 | −29.9% |
| 2012 | −38.8% |
| 2016 | −56.3% |
| 2020 | −56.7% |
| 2024 | −60.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 33 Senate · 2 Senate special · 15 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 10,214 |
| 2020 | 10,723 |
| 2022 | 11,090 |
| 2024 | 11,586 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+170 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +2,473 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $55,013 in average income, against $53,818 for residents who stayed — 2% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+58.7 on average — 1.5 points more Democratic-leaning than Marion County, AR itself (R+60.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Baxter County, AR161R+56.8
- Boone County, AR49R+64.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Baxter County, AR160
- Boone County, AR48
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +84 |
| 2012 | +17 |
| 2013 | −60 |
| 2014 | +75 |
| 2015 | −102 |
| 2016 | +235 |
| 2017 | +154 |
| 2018 | +363 |
| 2019 | +172 |
| 2021 | +286 |
| 2022 | +455 |
| 2023 | +398 |
| 2024 | +226 |
| 2025 | +170 |
Marion County, anchored by the resort town of Yellville on Bull Shoals Lake, delivered a 60-point Republican margin in 2024 — consistent with a broader pattern of overwhelming GOP dominance across rural Ozark counties in northern Arkansas.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 65.5 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 60.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 60.2 points.
A population of 17,228, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $48,619 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Newton County and Montgomery County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Newton County
Arkansas
89.7twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectorymedian age≠ Scottish ancestry
Montgomery County
Arkansas
86.6twin score
median ageelasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
Baxter County
Arkansas
86.4twin score
elasticitymedian age2016–2024 trajectory≠ Polish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Marion County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05089/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Marion County, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Marion County, Arkansas voted Republican by 60.2 points (R+60.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,851 votes cast, 1,501 went Democratic and 6,230 went Republican.
When did Marion County, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Marion County, Arkansas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Marion County, Arkansas?
Marion County, Arkansas has a population of 17,228 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Marion County, Arkansas?
Median household income in Marion County, Arkansas is $48,619 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Marion County, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Marion County, Arkansas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.