HarrisDemocratic25.2%1,774TrumpRepublican73.2%5,145KennedyIndependent0.8%53
R+48.0- Lead
- 3,371
- Total
- 7,030
- vs nation
- R+46.5
- Turnout
- 50.6%
Akashiccounty
Ashley County, AR
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 50.6% of 13,951 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic26.8%2,125TrumpRepublican70.0%5,548CollinsIndependent0.6%44
R+43.2- Lead
- 3,423
- Total
- 7,926
- vs nation
- R+47.6
- Turnout
- 52.9%
ClintonDemocratic30.5%2,408TrumpRepublican67.6%5,338JohnsonLibertarian2.0%156
R+37.1- Lead
- 2,930
- Total
- 7,902
- vs nation
- R+39.2
- Turnout
- 50.3%
ObamaDemocratic36.1%2,859RomneyRepublican61.4%4,867GrayLibertarian1.3%105
R+25.4- Lead
- 2,008
- Total
- 7,921
- vs nation
- R+29.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic34.4%2,976McCainRepublican62.6%5,406OtherAll other candidates3.0%260
R+28.1- Lead
- 2,430
- Total
- 8,642
- vs nation
- R+35.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic45.6%3,881BushRepublican53.7%4,567OtherAll other candidates0.8%64
R+8.1- Lead
- 686
- Total
- 8,512
- vs nation
- R+5.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic51.4%4,253BushRepublican46.9%3,876NaderGreen0.7%61
D+4.6- Lead
- 377
- Total
- 8,271
- vs nation
- D+4.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic60.5%5,011DoleRepublican29.3%2,428PerotReform8.5%704
D+31.2- Lead
- 2,583
- Total
- 8,281
- vs nation
- D+22.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+48.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 18,4292024 5-year
- Median household income
- $44,2662024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 67.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 23.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+87.1 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+53.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Arkansas County, AR · twin score 96.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 50.6%7,054 participants ÷ 13,951 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.2 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 36.3%–38.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 7,902 | 15,712 | 50.3% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 6,193 | 15,288 | 40.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 7,956 | 15,043 | 52.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 5,571 | 14,410 | 38.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 7,054 | 13,951 | 50.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
30 precincts · 7,030 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -03 - Crossett Ward 303 - Crossett Ward 3 | 160 | 598 | 9 | 767 | 20.9% | 78.0% | R+57.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -14 - Hamburg Rural14 - Hamburg Rural | 48 | 507 | 7 | 562 | 8.5% | 90.2% | R+81.7 |
| Precinct -02 - Crossett Ward 202 - Crossett Ward 2 | 278 | 246 | 11 | 535 | 52.0% | 46.0% | D+6.0 |
| Precinct -06 - West Crossett Rural06 - West Crossett Rural | 136 | 366 | 10 | 512 | 26.6% | 71.5% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -09 - Hickory Grove09 - Hickory Grove | 35 | 438 | 6 | 479 | 7.3% | 91.4% | R+84.1 |
| Precinct -01 - Crossett Ward 101 - Crossett Ward 1 | 246 | 189 | 7 | 442 | 55.7% | 42.8% | D+12.9 |
| Precinct -04 - North Crossett East04 - North Crossett East | 61 | 320 | 12 | 393 | 15.5% | 81.4% | R+65.9 |
| Precinct -10 - Cross Roads10 - Cross Roads | 40 | 341 | 4 | 385 | 10.4% | 88.6% | R+78.2 |
| Precinct -11 - Hamburg Ward 311 - Hamburg Ward 3 | 64 | 280 | 7 | 351 | 18.2% | 79.8% | R+61.5 |
| Precinct -16 - Milo16 - Milo | 32 | 306 | 6 | 344 | 9.3% | 89.0% | R+79.7 |
| Precinct -07 - VO - Tech07 - VO - Tech | 57 | 200 | 2 | 259 | 22.0% | 77.2% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -20 - Fountain Hill Rural20 - Fountain Hill Rural | 25 | 229 | 1 | 255 | 9.8% | 89.8% | R+80.0 |
| Precinct -12 - Hamburg Ward 212 - Hamburg Ward 2 | 62 | 176 | 4 | 242 | 25.6% | 72.7% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct -05 - North Crossett West05 - North Crossett West | 44 | 192 | 3 | 239 | 18.4% | 80.3% | R+61.9 |
| Precinct -08 - Cooter08 - Cooter | 23 | 169 | 3 | 195 | 11.8% | 86.7% | R+74.9 |
| Precinct -21 - Portland City21 - Portland City | 70 | 91 | 0 | 161 | 43.5% | 56.5% | R+13.0 |
| Precinct -15 - Mt. Zion15 - Mt. Zion | 8 | 143 | 3 | 154 | 5.2% | 92.9% | R+87.7 |
| Precinct -13 - Hamburg Ward 113 - Hamburg Ward 1 | 121 | 30 | 2 | 153 | 79.1% | 19.6% | D+59.5 |
| Precinct -29 - Wilmot City29 - Wilmot City | 113 | 37 | 3 | 153 | 73.9% | 24.2% | D+49.7 |
| Precinct -25 - Montrose City25 - Montrose City | 55 | 22 | 2 | 79 | 69.6% | 27.8% | D+41.8 |
| Precinct -18 - Mist18 - Mist | 4 | 63 | 2 | 69 | 5.8% | 91.3% | R+85.5 |
| Precinct -27 - Parkdale City27 - Parkdale City | 43 | 19 | 1 | 63 | 68.3% | 30.2% | D+38.1 |
| Precinct -19 - Fountain Hill City19 - Fountain Hill City | 21 | 35 | 1 | 57 | 36.8% | 61.4% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -30 - Wilmot Rural30 - Wilmot Rural | 13 | 42 | 2 | 57 | 22.8% | 73.7% | R+50.9 |
| Precinct -24 - Snyder / Trafalgar24 - Snyder / Trafalgar | 2 | 48 | 1 | 51 | 3.9% | 94.1% | R+90.2 |
| Precinct -22 - Portland Rural22 - Portland Rural | 9 | 21 | 1 | 31 | 29.0% | 67.7% | R+38.7 |
| Precinct -17 - Beech Creek17 - Beech Creek | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -23 - Boydell23 - Boydell | 3 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 27.3% | 72.7% | R+45.5 |
| Precinct -26 - Montrose Rural26 - Montrose Rural | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -28 - Parkdale Rural28 - Parkdale Rural | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16.7% | 66.7% | R+50.0 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +38.4% |
| 1896 | +60.1% |
| 1900 | +44.5% |
| 1904 | +39.3% |
| 1908 | +14.0% |
| 1912 | +31.1% |
| 1916 | +53.3% |
| 1920 | +28.4% |
| 1924 | +32.9% |
| 1928 | +27.8% |
| 1932 | +85.9% |
| 1936 | +87.1% |
| 1940 | +81.6% |
| 1944 | +76.6% |
| 1948 | +68.4% |
| 1952 | +47.0% |
| 1956 | +38.3% |
| 1960 | +36.4% |
| 1964 | −12.5% |
| 1968 | +7.1% |
| 1972 | −53.1% |
| 1976 | +25.9% |
| 1980 | +6.8% |
| 1984 | −25.3% |
| 1988 | +4.1% |
| 1992 | +33.3% |
| 1996 | +31.2% |
| 2000 | +4.6% |
| 2004 | −8.1% |
| 2008 | −28.1% |
| 2012 | −25.4% |
| 2016 | −37.1% |
| 2020 | −43.2% |
| 2024 | −48.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 33 Senate · 2 Senate special · 15 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 12,719 |
| 2020 | 11,384 |
| 2022 | 10,825 |
| 2024 | 10,336 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−103 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,685 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $37,311 in average income, against $58,748 for residents who stayed — 36% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+27.4 on average — 21 points more Democratic-leaning than Ashley County, AR itself (R+48.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Drew County, AR34R+33.8
- Morehouse Parish, LA27R+19.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Drew County, AR34
- Pulaski County, AR32
- Morehouse Parish, LA23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −188 |
| 2012 | −207 |
| 2013 | −242 |
| 2014 | −323 |
| 2015 | −97 |
| 2016 | −294 |
| 2017 | −174 |
| 2018 | −250 |
| 2019 | −313 |
| 2021 | −201 |
| 2022 | −178 |
| 2023 | +40 |
| 2024 | −155 |
| 2025 | −103 |
Ashley County in southeastern Arkansas has shifted decisively Republican over recent decades, recording a 48-point presidential margin in 2024 in a county where timber, agriculture, and small-town demographics define the electorate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 87.1 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 53.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.0 points.
A population of 18,429, a 67% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $44,266 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Arkansas County and Howard County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Arkansas County
Arkansas
96.3twin score
elasticity% Evangelical% Black≠ % unaffiliated
Howard County
Arkansas
92.4twin score
elasticitymedian income% Catholic≠ % unaffiliated
Little River County
Arkansas
91.8twin score
elasticity% Evangelical2000 margin≠ % unaffiliated
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Ashley County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05003/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Ashley County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Ashley County, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Ashley County, Arkansas voted Republican by 48.0 points (R+48.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,030 votes cast, 1,774 went Democratic and 5,145 went Republican.
When did Ashley County, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Ashley County, Arkansas voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in Ashley County, Arkansas?
Ashley County, Arkansas has a population of 18,429 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Ashley County, Arkansas?
Median household income in Ashley County, Arkansas is $44,266 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Ashley County, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Ashley County, Arkansas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 24 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.