| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 4,341 | 16,253 | 20,954 | |
| 2020 | R | 4,635 | 15,836 | 21,007 | |
| 2016 | R | 4,169 | 14,682 | 19,303 | |
| 2012 | R | 5,172 | 13,688 | 19,339 | |
| 2008 | R | 6,539 | 12,852 | 19,981 | |
| 2004 | R | 7,129 | 11,128 | 18,530 | |
| 2000 | R | 6,516 | 9,538 | 16,708 | |
| 1996 | R | 6,703 | 6,877 | 15,505 | |
| 1992 | D | 6,991 | 5,640 | 15,732 | |
| 1988 | R | 4,808 | 8,614 | 13,597 | |
| 1984 | R | 4,528 | 10,870 | 15,564 | |
| 1980 | R | 4,789 | 9,684 | 15,147 | |
| 1976 | R | 5,766 | 5,885 | 11,651 | |
| 1972 | R | 2,677 | 6,754 | 9,560 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,952 | 3,401 | 6,866 | |
| 1964 | D | 2,900 | 1,986 | 4,891 | |
| 1960 | R | 1,694 | 2,108 | 3,879 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,451 | 1,721 | 3,192 | |
| 1952 | D | 1,388 | 1,387 | 2,793 | |
| 1948 | D | 1,098 | 553 | 1,760 | |
| 1944 | D | 796 | 572 | 1,372 | |
| 1940 | D | 859 | 489 | 1,355 | |
| 1936 | D | 773 | 375 | 1,155 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,039 | 194 | 1,254 | |
| 1928 | D | 665 | 504 | 1,180 | |
| 1924 | D | 640 | 301 | 1,103 | |
| 1920 | D | 707 | 484 | 1,261 | |
| 1916 | D | 914 | 318 | 1,232 | |
| 1912 | D | 536 | 142 | 996 | |
| 1908 | D | 607 | 300 | 976 | |
| 1904 | D | 426 | 236 | 686 | |
| 1900 | D | 723 | 287 | 1,015 | |
| 1896 | D | 980 | 262 | 1,244 | |
| 1892 | D | 802 | 269 | 1,116 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Baxter County sits in the northern Arkansas highlands, where a predominantly white, rural population has delivered Republican presidential margins exceeding 55 points in recent cycles, making it among the state's most reliably one-sided counties.
The Democratic margin in Baxter County peaked at sixty-seven points in 1932. By 1996 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was fifty-seven points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Baxter County's median household income of $48,452 sits well below state and national norms, and 16% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Fentress County and Mohave County.