- Lead
- 1,153
- Total
- 2,907
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Turnout
- 46.2%
Nevada County, AR
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 46.2% of 6,324 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,057
- Total
- 3,358
- vs nation
- R+35.9
- Turnout
- 52.6%
- Lead
- 843
- Total
- 3,192
- vs nation
- R+28.5
- Turnout
- 48.9%
- Lead
- 682
- Total
- 3,384
- vs nation
- R+24.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 588
- Total
- 3,635
- vs nation
- R+23.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 58
- Total
- 3,477
- vs nation
- D+0.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 71
- Total
- 3,738
- vs nation
- D+1.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,303
- Total
- 3,650
- vs nation
- D+27.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+39.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 8,1592024 5-year
- Median household income
- $53,8862024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 62.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 31.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+84.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+39.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lafayette County, AR · twin score 94.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 46.2%2,921 participants ÷ 6,324 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 32.6%–34.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,263 | 6,669 | 48.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,516 | 6,520 | 38.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,358 | 6,381 | 52.6% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,505 | 6,420 | 39.0% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 2,921 | 6,324 | 46.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
19 precincts · 2,907 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -East & West RuralEast & West Rural | 112 | 664 | 8 | 784 | 14.3% | 84.7% | R+70.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Ward 1, 2 & 3Ward 1, 2 & 3 | 116 | 295 | 6 | 417 | 27.8% | 70.7% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct -Ward 2 & 3 Prescott SZ 2Ward 2 & 3 Prescott SZ 2 | 169 | 60 | 16 | 245 | 69.0% | 24.5% | D+44.5 |
| Precinct -BOD City & Rural St Rep 89BOD City & Rural St Rep 89 | 12 | 194 | 2 | 208 | 5.8% | 93.3% | R+87.5 |
| Precinct -Willisville City&RuralSt.Rep98Willisville City&RuralSt.Rep98 | 68 | 103 | 4 | 175 | 38.9% | 58.9% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct -Ward 2, 3 & 4 Prescott SZ 1Ward 2, 3 & 4 Prescott SZ 1 | 106 | 54 | 3 | 163 | 65.0% | 33.1% | D+31.9 |
| Precinct -Emmet City Blvns S DisEmmet City Blvns S Dis | 48 | 94 | 3 | 145 | 33.1% | 64.8% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct -BOD Rural St Rep 98BOD Rural St Rep 98 | 19 | 96 | 0 | 115 | 16.5% | 83.5% | R+67.0 |
| Precinct -Laneburg Nev SD Zone 3Laneburg Nev SD Zone 3 | 12 | 97 | 1 | 110 | 10.9% | 88.2% | R+77.3 |
| Precinct -Bluff City City & RuralBluff City City & Rural | 49 | 41 | 3 | 93 | 52.7% | 44.1% | D+8.6 |
| Precinct -Georgia Nev School Dist Zone3Georgia Nev School Dist Zone3 | 7 | 81 | 1 | 89 | 7.9% | 91.0% | R+83.1 |
| Precinct -Rosston Rural St Rep 89Rosston Rural St Rep 89 | 43 | 46 | 0 | 89 | 48.3% | 51.7% | R+3.4 |
| Precinct -Rosston CitySalesTax & StRep89Rosston CitySalesTax & StRep89 | 56 | 27 | 5 | 88 | 63.6% | 30.7% | D+33.0 |
| Precinct -LaneburgLaneburg | 5 | 60 | 4 | 69 | 7.2% | 87.0% | R+79.7 |
| Precinct -Willisville Rural St. Rep 89Willisville Rural St. Rep 89 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 43 | 14.0% | 86.0% | R+72.1 |
| Precinct -BOD Rural Nev SZ 3 & St Rep 89BOD Rural Nev SZ 3 & St Rep 89 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 27 | 25.9% | 74.1% | R+48.1 |
| Precinct -Rosston Rural St Rep 98Rosston Rural St Rep 98 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 24 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -Emmet Rural Nev School DistEmmet Rural Nev School Dist | 2 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 9.5% | 90.5% | R+81.0 |
| Precinct -GeorgiaGeorgia | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +18.8% |
| 1896 | +55.8% |
| 1900 | −0.8% |
| 1904 | +1.9% |
| 1908 | +5.4% |
| 1912 | +22.1% |
| 1916 | +35.4% |
| 1920 | −2.8% |
| 1924 | +25.8% |
| 1928 | +13.5% |
| 1932 | +84.3% |
| 1936 | +71.7% |
| 1940 | +72.1% |
| 1944 | +53.0% |
| 1948 | +52.9% |
| 1952 | +31.0% |
| 1956 | +28.3% |
| 1960 | +24.3% |
| 1964 | +21.6% |
| 1968 | +11.9% |
| 1972 | −36.1% |
| 1976 | +45.4% |
| 1980 | +21.0% |
| 1984 | −13.7% |
| 1988 | +0.5% |
| 1992 | +26.0% |
| 1996 | +35.7% |
| 2000 | +1.9% |
| 2004 | −1.7% |
| 2008 | −16.2% |
| 2012 | −20.2% |
| 2016 | −26.4% |
| 2020 | −31.5% |
| 2024 | −39.7% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 28.1%785 | 71.9%2,004 | 2,789 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 5,683 |
| 2020 | 5,834 |
| 2022 | 5,770 |
| 2024 | 5,781 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−41 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −733 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $36,094 in average income, against $49,633 for residents who stayed — 27% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+34.6 on average — 5.1 points more Democratic-leaning than Nevada County, AR itself (R+39.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Hempstead County, AR55R+39.7
- Clark County, AR20R+20.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Hempstead County, AR54
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +16 |
| 2012 | −80 |
| 2013 | −149 |
| 2014 | −83 |
| 2015 | −134 |
| 2016 | −119 |
| 2017 | −35 |
| 2018 | +1 |
| 2019 | −51 |
| 2021 | −40 |
| 2022 | +43 |
| 2023 | −9 |
| 2024 | −52 |
| 2025 | −41 |
Nevada County sits in southwestern Arkansas's timber country, where a declining population and an aging rural demographic have pushed presidential margins steadily rightward, reaching nearly 40 points in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 84.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 39.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 8.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 39.7 points.
A population of 8,159, a 63% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $53,886 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lafayette County and Dallas County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Nevada County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05099/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.