AkashicArkansas — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 96% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Tom CottonRIncumbentNominee | for | |
| Hallie ShoffnerDNominee | against | |
| Jeff WadlinLibertarianNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Tom Cotton (R) won the March 3, 2026 primary (81.6%) seeking a third term. Hallie Shoffner won the Democratic primary (78.3%). Jeff Wadlin was nominated by the Libertarian Party of Arkansas convention (Feb 22, 2026) and is on the general ballot. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AR state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+67 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →