HarrisDemocratic28.7%2,449TrumpRepublican69.0%5,893KennedyIndependent1.2%105
R+40.3- Lead
- 3,444
- Total
- 8,541
- vs nation
- R+38.9
- Turnout
- 53.8%
Akashiccounty
Conway County, AR
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 53.8% of 15,986 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic30.1%2,615TrumpRepublican65.6%5,694CollinsIndependent1.0%88
R+35.5- Lead
- 3,079
- Total
- 8,685
- vs nation
- R+39.9
- Turnout
- 55.0%
ClintonDemocratic34.6%2,656TrumpRepublican63.2%4,849JohnsonLibertarian2.2%171
R+28.6- Lead
- 2,193
- Total
- 7,676
- vs nation
- R+30.7
- Turnout
- 50.5%
ObamaDemocratic38.9%3,005RomneyRepublican58.4%4,514GrayLibertarian1.4%105
R+19.5- Lead
- 1,509
- Total
- 7,730
- vs nation
- R+23.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic38.7%3,149McCainRepublican57.6%4,691OtherAll other candidates3.7%298
R+18.9- Lead
- 1,542
- Total
- 8,138
- vs nation
- R+26.2
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic49.3%3,982BushRepublican49.6%4,009OtherAll other candidates1.2%93
R+0.3- Lead
- 27
- Total
- 8,084
- vs nation
- D+2.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic48.3%3,496BushRepublican49.0%3,545NaderGreen1.2%84
R+0.7- Lead
- 49
- Total
- 7,234
- vs nation
- R+1.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic55.7%4,055DoleRepublican31.7%2,307PerotReform10.2%746
D+24.0- Lead
- 1,748
- Total
- 7,282
- vs nation
- D+15.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+40.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 21,0542024 5-year
- Median household income
- $54,1872024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 11.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+79.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.3 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Hot Spring County, AR · twin score 94.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 53.8%8,594 participants ÷ 15,986 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +11.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 42.8%–43.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,026 | 15,889 | 50.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 6,523 | 15,813 | 41.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 8,736 | 15,892 | 55.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,928 | 15,745 | 44.0% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 8,594 | 15,986 | 53.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
31 precincts · 8,541 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -017 - Morrilton Ward 3017 - Morrilton Ward 3 | 291 | 399 | 21 | 711 | 40.9% | 56.1% | R+15.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -018 - Morrilton Ward 4018 - Morrilton Ward 4 | 253 | 435 | 23 | 711 | 35.6% | 61.2% | R+25.6 |
| Precinct -030 - Welbourne East030 - Welbourne East | 189 | 507 | 13 | 709 | 26.7% | 71.5% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -029 - Morrilton Ward 1029 - Morrilton Ward 1 | 248 | 331 | 15 | 594 | 41.8% | 55.7% | R+14.0 |
| Precinct -013 - Washington East013 - Washington East | 102 | 424 | 12 | 538 | 19.0% | 78.8% | R+59.9 |
| Precinct -020 - Morrilton Ward 2020 - Morrilton Ward 2 | 166 | 244 | 7 | 417 | 39.8% | 58.5% | R+18.7 |
| Precinct -021 - Union021 - Union | 106 | 261 | 9 | 376 | 28.2% | 69.4% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct -024 - Bird024 - Bird | 65 | 264 | 6 | 335 | 19.4% | 78.8% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct -002 - Bentley City002 - Bentley City | 56 | 247 | 8 | 311 | 18.0% | 79.4% | R+61.4 |
| Precinct -007 - Howard City007 - Howard City | 132 | 166 | 9 | 307 | 43.0% | 54.1% | R+11.1 |
| Precinct -012 - Lick Mountain012 - Lick Mountain | 44 | 260 | 3 | 307 | 14.3% | 84.7% | R+70.4 |
| Precinct -015 - Howard Rural015 - Howard Rural | 88 | 194 | 9 | 291 | 30.2% | 66.7% | R+36.4 |
| Precinct -004 - St Vincent004 - St Vincent | 73 | 205 | 7 | 285 | 25.6% | 71.9% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct -003 - Welbourne West003 - Welbourne West | 72 | 205 | 7 | 284 | 25.4% | 72.2% | R+46.8 |
| Precinct -027 - Nichols027 - Nichols | 65 | 185 | 9 | 259 | 25.1% | 71.4% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct -023 - Washington West023 - Washington West | 47 | 170 | 6 | 223 | 21.1% | 76.2% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -022 - Bentley Rural022 - Bentley Rural | 31 | 186 | 3 | 220 | 14.1% | 84.5% | R+70.5 |
| Precinct -005 - Steele005 - Steele | 30 | 179 | 9 | 218 | 13.8% | 82.1% | R+68.3 |
| Precinct -011 - Griffin011 - Griffin | 43 | 162 | 1 | 206 | 20.9% | 78.6% | R+57.8 |
| Precinct -025 - Catholic Point025 - Catholic Point | 39 | 148 | 8 | 195 | 20.0% | 75.9% | R+55.9 |
| Precinct -010 - Gregory010 - Gregory | 28 | 152 | 2 | 182 | 15.4% | 83.5% | R+68.1 |
| Precinct -009 - Cedar Falls009 - Cedar Falls | 56 | 88 | 3 | 147 | 38.1% | 59.9% | R+21.8 |
| Precinct -006-Menifee City006-Menifee City | 117 | 18 | 2 | 137 | 85.4% | 13.1% | D+72.3 |
| Precinct -001 - Austin001 - Austin | 14 | 111 | 1 | 126 | 11.1% | 88.1% | R+77.0 |
| Precinct -014 - McClaren014 - McClaren | 24 | 89 | 1 | 114 | 21.1% | 78.1% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct -028 - Old Hickory028 - Old Hickory | 10 | 72 | 1 | 83 | 12.0% | 86.7% | R+74.7 |
| Precinct -031 - Menifee Rural031 - Menifee Rural | 28 | 51 | 2 | 81 | 34.6% | 63.0% | R+28.4 |
| Precinct -019 - Martin019 - Martin | 11 | 64 | 1 | 76 | 14.5% | 84.2% | R+69.7 |
| Precinct -026 - Petit Jean026 - Petit Jean | 17 | 28 | 1 | 46 | 37.0% | 60.9% | R+23.9 |
| Precinct -008 - Higgins008 - Higgins | 2 | 29 | 0 | 31 | 6.5% | 93.5% | R+87.1 |
| Precinct -016 - White Eagle016 - White Eagle | 2 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 9.5% | 90.5% | R+81.0 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +23.9% |
| 1896 | +54.6% |
| 1900 | +33.7% |
| 1904 | +24.9% |
| 1908 | +50.4% |
| 1912 | +38.2% |
| 1916 | +15.2% |
| 1920 | +17.8% |
| 1924 | +24.6% |
| 1928 | +38.9% |
| 1932 | +79.2% |
| 1936 | +73.6% |
| 1940 | +76.7% |
| 1944 | +42.3% |
| 1948 | +54.8% |
| 1952 | +19.6% |
| 1956 | +22.9% |
| 1960 | +25.3% |
| 1964 | +27.7% |
| 1968 | +9.0% |
| 1972 | −16.3% |
| 1976 | +49.4% |
| 1980 | +6.0% |
| 1984 | −14.8% |
| 1988 | +0.8% |
| 1992 | +25.7% |
| 1996 | +24.0% |
| 2000 | −0.7% |
| 2004 | −0.3% |
| 2008 | −18.9% |
| 2012 | −19.5% |
| 2016 | −28.6% |
| 2020 | −35.5% |
| 2024 | −40.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 33 Senate · 2 Senate special · 15 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 11,294 |
| 2020 | 11,739 |
| 2022 | 11,813 |
| 2024 | 12,583 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+105 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +773 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $42,948 in average income, against $65,118 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+33.2 on average — 7.1 points more Democratic-leaning than Conway County, AR itself (R+40.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Faulkner County, AR134R+32.3
- Pope County, AR64R+52.2
- Pulaski County, AR34D+22.1
- Perry County, AR32R+57.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Faulkner County, AR162
- Pope County, AR75
- Perry County, AR44
- Pulaski County, AR41
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −118 |
| 2012 | +3 |
| 2013 | −63 |
| 2014 | −79 |
| 2015 | −49 |
| 2016 | −35 |
| 2017 | −5 |
| 2018 | +34 |
| 2019 | +14 |
| 2021 | +261 |
| 2022 | +210 |
| 2023 | +111 |
| 2024 | +384 |
| 2025 | +105 |
Conway County sits at the edge of the Arkansas River Valley with a population just over 20,000, and its presidential margins have trended steadily rightward over the past decade, reaching R+40 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 79.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 40.3 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 40.3 points.
A population of 21,054, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,187 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Hot Spring County and Jackson County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Hot Spring County
Arkansas
94.8twin score
elasticity2000–2004 trajectory12-yr trend
Jackson County
Arkansas
93.0twin score
elasticity2000–2004 trajectorymedian income≠ American ancestry
Lawrence County
Arkansas
90.3twin score
elasticity2000–2004 trajectorymedian income≠ English ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Conway County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05029/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Conway County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Conway County, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Conway County, Arkansas voted Republican by 40.3 points (R+40.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,541 votes cast, 2,449 went Democratic and 5,893 went Republican.
When did Conway County, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Conway County, Arkansas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Conway County, Arkansas?
Conway County, Arkansas has a population of 21,054 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Conway County, Arkansas?
Median household income in Conway County, Arkansas is $54,187 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Conway County, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Conway County, Arkansas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 25 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.