- Lead
- 2,326
- Total
- 4,775
- vs nation
- R+47.2
- Turnout
- 36.3%
Jackson County, AR
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 36.3% of 13,244 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,228
- Total
- 5,091
- vs nation
- R+48.2
- Turnout
- 38.2%
- Lead
- 1,684
- Total
- 4,961
- vs nation
- R+36.0
- Turnout
- 37.4%
- Lead
- 977
- Total
- 5,347
- vs nation
- R+22.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 911
- Total
- 5,582
- vs nation
- R+23.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 891
- Total
- 6,219
- vs nation
- D+16.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,371
- Total
- 6,072
- vs nation
- D+22.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,779
- Total
- 6,500
- vs nation
- D+34.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+48.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 16,7122024 5-year
- Median household income
- $44,2182024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 75.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 15.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+85.5 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+48.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Hot Spring County, AR · twin score 93.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 36.3%4,811 participants ÷ 13,244 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +7.6 ptsPersistently low turnout
- Drop-off versus state
- -7.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 28.8%–29.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,188 | 13,884 | 37.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,171 | 13,715 | 30.4% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,155 | 13,485 | 38.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,123 | 13,449 | 30.7% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 4,811 | 13,244 | 36.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
45 precincts · 4,775 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -14 - Diaz14 - Diaz | 122 | 273 | 5 | 400 | 30.5% | 68.3% | R+37.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -38 - Newport Ward 4-A38 - Newport Ward 4-A | 63 | 285 | 13 | 361 | 17.5% | 78.9% | R+61.5 |
| Precinct -39 - Newport Ward 4-B39 - Newport Ward 4-B | 95 | 246 | 8 | 349 | 27.2% | 70.5% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -45 - Swifton45 - Swifton | 77 | 248 | 2 | 327 | 23.5% | 75.8% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct -26 - New Glaise26 - New Glaise | 27 | 264 | 5 | 296 | 9.1% | 89.2% | R+80.1 |
| Precinct -47 - Tuckerman Ward 247 - Tuckerman Ward 2 | 37 | 210 | 6 | 253 | 14.6% | 83.0% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct -36 - Newport Ward 2-C36 - Newport Ward 2-C | 54 | 182 | 2 | 238 | 22.7% | 76.5% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -37 - Newport Ward 2-B37 - Newport Ward 2-B | 89 | 138 | 8 | 235 | 37.9% | 58.7% | R+20.9 |
| Precinct -11 - Crossroads -3711 - Crossroads -37 | 14 | 173 | 2 | 189 | 7.4% | 91.5% | R+84.1 |
| Precinct -48 - Tuckerman Ward 348 - Tuckerman Ward 3 | 48 | 135 | 1 | 184 | 26.1% | 73.4% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -46 - Tuckerman Ward 146 - Tuckerman Ward 1 | 32 | 138 | 3 | 173 | 18.5% | 79.8% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -17 - Grubbs17 - Grubbs | 23 | 132 | 3 | 158 | 14.6% | 83.5% | R+69.0 |
| Precinct -30 - Newport Ward 1-B30 - Newport Ward 1-B | 100 | 36 | 1 | 137 | 73.0% | 26.3% | D+46.7 |
| Precinct -49 - Tuckerman Outside49 - Tuckerman Outside | 29 | 82 | 3 | 114 | 25.4% | 71.9% | R+46.5 |
| Precinct -34 - Newport Ward 3-B34 - Newport Ward 3-B | 24 | 64 | 3 | 91 | 26.4% | 70.3% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -09 - Campbell Station09 - Campbell Station | 16 | 71 | 2 | 89 | 18.0% | 79.8% | R+61.8 |
| Precinct -02 - Alcorn02 - Alcorn | 49 | 32 | 1 | 82 | 59.8% | 39.0% | D+20.7 |
| Precinct -07 - Beedeville07 - Beedeville | 5 | 72 | 5 | 82 | 6.1% | 87.8% | R+81.7 |
| Precinct -28 - Newport Ward 2-A28 - Newport Ward 2-A | 40 | 38 | 3 | 81 | 49.4% | 46.9% | D+2.5 |
| Precinct -12 - Denmark12 - Denmark | 15 | 64 | 0 | 79 | 19.0% | 81.0% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -35 - Newport Ward 3-C35 - Newport Ward 3-C | 44 | 33 | 2 | 79 | 55.7% | 41.8% | D+13.9 |
| Precinct -43 - Remmel43 - Remmel | 14 | 62 | 2 | 78 | 17.9% | 79.5% | R+61.5 |
| Precinct -22 - Jacksonport22 - Jacksonport | 21 | 48 | 0 | 69 | 30.4% | 69.6% | R+39.1 |
| Precinct -42 - Penninghton Balch42 - Penninghton Balch | 7 | 51 | 0 | 58 | 12.1% | 87.9% | R+75.9 |
| Precinct -33 - Newport Ward 3-A33 - Newport Ward 3-A | 20 | 32 | 1 | 53 | 37.7% | 60.4% | R+22.6 |
| Precinct -21 - Island21 - Island | 9 | 41 | 0 | 50 | 18.0% | 82.0% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -18 - Hickory Grove18 - Hickory Grove | 8 | 39 | 0 | 47 | 17.0% | 83.0% | R+66.0 |
| Precinct -24 - Liberty24 - Liberty | 5 | 42 | 0 | 47 | 10.6% | 89.4% | R+78.7 |
| Precinct -51 - Waters Store51 - Waters Store | 5 | 41 | 0 | 46 | 10.9% | 89.1% | R+78.3 |
| Precinct -01 - Airbase01 - Airbase | 9 | 34 | 0 | 43 | 20.9% | 79.1% | R+58.1 |
| Precinct -31 - Newport Ward 1-A31 - Newport Ward 1-A | 37 | 6 | 0 | 43 | 86.0% | 14.0% | D+72.1 |
| Precinct -50 - Tupelo50 - Tupelo | 6 | 37 | 0 | 43 | 14.0% | 86.0% | R+72.1 |
| Precinct -05 - Auvergne05 - Auvergne | 11 | 26 | 0 | 37 | 29.7% | 70.3% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -15 - Gourdneck - Citizenship15 - Gourdneck - Citizenship | 3 | 29 | 1 | 33 | 9.1% | 87.9% | R+78.8 |
| Precinct -04 - Amagon04 - Amagon | 4 | 24 | 0 | 28 | 14.3% | 85.7% | R+71.4 |
| Precinct -40 - Old Glaise40 - Old Glaise | 3 | 24 | 0 | 27 | 11.1% | 88.9% | R+77.8 |
| Precinct -52 - Weldon52 - Weldon | 3 | 17 | 0 | 20 | 15.0% | 85.0% | R+70.0 |
| Precinct -16 - Greenhaw16 - Greenhaw | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -19 - Horseshoe19 - Horseshoe | 4 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 40.0% | 60.0% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct -25 - Macks25 - Macks | 3 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 30.0% | 60.0% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct -03 - Algoa03 - Algoa | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 22.2% | 77.8% | R+55.6 |
| Precinct -44 - Shoffner44 - Shoffner | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28.6% | 71.4% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct -08 - Blackville08 - Blackville | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 60.0% | 40.0% | D+20.0 |
| Precinct -20 - Ingleside20 - Ingleside | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -41 - Olyphant41 - Olyphant | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | D+100.0 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +37.1% |
| 1896 | +45.7% |
| 1900 | +27.2% |
| 1904 | +4.8% |
| 1908 | +9.4% |
| 1912 | +17.3% |
| 1916 | +47.9% |
| 1920 | +15.8% |
| 1924 | +43.9% |
| 1928 | +37.1% |
| 1932 | +85.5% |
| 1936 | +73.6% |
| 1940 | +70.1% |
| 1944 | +69.7% |
| 1948 | +72.1% |
| 1952 | +48.8% |
| 1956 | +46.9% |
| 1960 | +16.9% |
| 1964 | +36.8% |
| 1968 | +10.0% |
| 1972 | −33.5% |
| 1976 | +56.7% |
| 1980 | +18.1% |
| 1984 | +1.7% |
| 1988 | +15.8% |
| 1992 | +40.9% |
| 1996 | +42.8% |
| 2000 | +22.6% |
| 2004 | +14.3% |
| 2008 | −16.3% |
| 2012 | −18.3% |
| 2016 | −33.9% |
| 2020 | −43.8% |
| 2024 | −48.7% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 8,341 |
| 2020 | 7,908 |
| 2022 | 8,157 |
| 2024 | 7,473 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+169 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −596 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $32,684 in average income, against $56,816 for residents who stayed — 42% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+53.2 on average — 4.4 points more Republican-leaning than Jackson County, AR itself (R+48.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- White County, AR54R+61.2
- Independence County, AR48R+59.5
- Craighead County, AR47R+37.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Craighead County, AR56
- Independence County, AR41
- White County, AR35
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −119 |
| 2012 | −183 |
| 2013 | +81 |
| 2014 | −127 |
| 2015 | −153 |
| 2016 | −67 |
| 2017 | −221 |
| 2018 | −240 |
| 2019 | −12 |
| 2021 | +156 |
| 2022 | −55 |
| 2023 | +214 |
| 2024 | −39 |
| 2025 | +169 |
Jackson County sits in Arkansas's Mississippi Delta lowlands, where a declining rural population and an aging demographic profile have produced some of the state's most lopsided federal election results in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 85.5 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 48.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.7 points.
A population of 16,712, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $44,218 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Hot Spring County and Poinsett County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Jackson County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05067/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.