HarrisDemocratic18.9%1,437TrumpRepublican79.0%6,023KennedyIndependent1.1%87
R+60.2- Lead
- 4,586
- Total
- 7,621
- vs nation
- R+58.7
- Turnout
- 60.4%
Akashiccounty
Van Buren County, AR
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 60.4% of 12,735 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic20.4%1,593TrumpRepublican77.3%6,034JorgensenLibertarian0.7%54
R+56.9- Lead
- 4,441
- Total
- 7,807
- vs nation
- R+61.3
- Turnout
- 59.4%
ClintonDemocratic21.8%1,549TrumpRepublican75.7%5,382JohnsonLibertarian2.6%182
R+53.9- Lead
- 3,833
- Total
- 7,113
- vs nation
- R+56.0
- Turnout
- 55.6%
ObamaDemocratic28.5%1,832RomneyRepublican67.9%4,365GrayLibertarian2.2%142
R+39.4- Lead
- 2,533
- Total
- 6,430
- vs nation
- R+43.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic32.1%2,151McCainRepublican63.8%4,276OtherAll other candidates4.1%276
R+31.7- Lead
- 2,125
- Total
- 6,703
- vs nation
- R+39.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic44.9%3,310BushRepublican54.1%3,988OtherAll other candidates1.0%76
R+9.2- Lead
- 678
- Total
- 7,374
- vs nation
- R+6.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic45.8%3,202BushRepublican49.9%3,485NaderGreen2.2%153
R+4.1- Lead
- 283
- Total
- 6,984
- vs nation
- R+4.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic51.8%3,521DoleRepublican34.5%2,345PerotReform12.2%830
D+17.3- Lead
- 1,176
- Total
- 6,801
- vs nation
- D+8.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+60.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 15,9982024 5-year
- Median household income
- $50,3542024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+55.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+60.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Stone County, AR · twin score 95.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 60.4%7,697 participants ÷ 12,735 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +8.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 52.3%–52.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 7,424 | 13,356 | 55.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 6,345 | 13,216 | 48.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 7,838 | 13,186 | 59.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,504 | 12,669 | 51.3% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 7,697 | 12,735 | 60.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
21 precincts · 7,621 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -24 SOUTH GRIGGS24 SOUTH GRIGGS | 134 | 490 | 18 | 642 | 20.9% | 76.3% | R+55.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -03 BRADLEY03 BRADLEY | 83 | 501 | 11 | 595 | 13.9% | 84.2% | R+70.3 |
| Precinct -20 UNION20 UNION | 88 | 423 | 8 | 519 | 17.0% | 81.5% | R+64.5 |
| Precinct -07 WEST GRIGGS07 WEST GRIGGS | 92 | 402 | 12 | 506 | 18.2% | 79.4% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -10 DAVIS10 DAVIS | 73 | 409 | 11 | 493 | 14.8% | 83.0% | R+68.2 |
| Precinct -12 EAST GRIGGS12 EAST GRIGGS | 91 | 386 | 11 | 488 | 18.6% | 79.1% | R+60.5 |
| Precinct -21 WASHINGTON21 WASHINGTON | 67 | 383 | 9 | 459 | 14.6% | 83.4% | R+68.8 |
| Precinct -23 MOUNTAIN RANCH23 MOUNTAIN RANCH | 118 | 315 | 9 | 442 | 26.7% | 71.3% | R+44.6 |
| Precinct -19 RED RIVER19 RED RIVER | 101 | 288 | 9 | 398 | 25.4% | 72.4% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct -25 INDIAN HILLS25 INDIAN HILLS | 88 | 264 | 11 | 363 | 24.2% | 72.7% | R+48.5 |
| Precinct -08 CRAIG08 CRAIG | 33 | 299 | 7 | 339 | 9.7% | 88.2% | R+78.5 |
| Precinct -06 CHOCTAW06 CHOCTAW | 87 | 234 | 7 | 328 | 26.5% | 71.3% | R+44.8 |
| Precinct -02 BARNETT02 BARNETT | 39 | 280 | 3 | 322 | 12.1% | 87.0% | R+74.8 |
| Precinct -17 LINN CREEK17 LINN CREEK | 66 | 205 | 6 | 277 | 23.8% | 74.0% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -05 HOLLY MOUNTAIN05 HOLLY MOUNTAIN | 52 | 214 | 3 | 269 | 19.3% | 79.6% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -26 LAKEWOOD26 LAKEWOOD | 71 | 187 | 5 | 263 | 27.0% | 71.1% | R+44.1 |
| Precinct -11 FORMOSA11 FORMOSA | 37 | 208 | 7 | 252 | 14.7% | 82.5% | R+67.9 |
| Precinct -09 CARGILE09 CARGILE | 19 | 157 | 5 | 181 | 10.5% | 86.7% | R+76.2 |
| Precinct -04 CULPEPPER04 CULPEPPER | 17 | 155 | 3 | 175 | 9.7% | 88.6% | R+78.9 |
| Precinct -22 WHEELER22 WHEELER | 60 | 105 | 5 | 170 | 35.3% | 61.8% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -15 MOUNTAIN15 MOUNTAIN | 21 | 118 | 1 | 140 | 15.0% | 84.3% | R+69.3 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +23.3% |
| 1896 | +37.9% |
| 1900 | +14.2% |
| 1904 | +3.1% |
| 1908 | +8.3% |
| 1912 | +33.0% |
| 1916 | +26.3% |
| 1920 | −49.8% |
| 1924 | +33.7% |
| 1928 | +21.5% |
| 1932 | +55.2% |
| 1936 | +44.7% |
| 1940 | +45.3% |
| 1944 | +24.9% |
| 1948 | +34.2% |
| 1952 | +0.9% |
| 1956 | +1.3% |
| 1960 | +6.6% |
| 1964 | +23.4% |
| 1968 | −4.8% |
| 1972 | −24.3% |
| 1976 | +42.3% |
| 1980 | −1.9% |
| 1984 | −23.0% |
| 1988 | −15.4% |
| 1992 | +16.4% |
| 1996 | +17.3% |
| 2000 | −4.1% |
| 2004 | −9.2% |
| 2008 | −31.7% |
| 2012 | −39.4% |
| 2016 | −53.9% |
| 2020 | −56.9% |
| 2024 | −60.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 33 Senate · 2 Senate special · 15 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 21.1%1,567 | 78.9%5,843 | 7,410 |
| 2020 | R | 21.7%1,678 | 78.3%6,072 | 7,750 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 10,556 |
| 2020 | 10,751 |
| 2022 | 11,224 |
| 2024 | 11,790 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+130 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +891 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $49,906 in average income, against $59,031 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+32.5 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Van Buren County, AR itself (R+60.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Faulkner County, AR88R+32.3
- Cleburne County, AR33R+67.9
- Pulaski County, AR21D+22.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Faulkner County, AR104
- Cleburne County, AR35
- Pulaski County, AR25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −89 |
| 2012 | −6 |
| 2013 | −81 |
| 2014 | −11 |
| 2015 | −48 |
| 2016 | −69 |
| 2017 | −21 |
| 2018 | +173 |
| 2019 | +9 |
| 2021 | +98 |
| 2022 | +487 |
| 2023 | +175 |
| 2024 | +144 |
| 2025 | +130 |
Van Buren County, nestled in the Arkansas River Valley foothills, recorded an R+60.2 margin in 2024, reflecting the rural, predominantly white demographic shift that has reshaped the Ozark-border counties over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 55.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 60.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 60.2 points.
A population of 15,998, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,354 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Stone County and Izard County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Stone County
Arkansas
95.3twin score
elasticity2020–2024 trajectorymedian age≠ Irish ancestry
Izard County
Arkansas
95.2twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ French ancestry
Sharp County
Arkansas
94.7twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ English ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Van Buren County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05141/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Van Buren County
Arkansas at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Van Buren County, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Van Buren County, Arkansas voted Republican by 60.2 points (R+60.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,621 votes cast, 1,437 went Democratic and 6,023 went Republican.
When did Van Buren County, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Van Buren County, Arkansas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Van Buren County, Arkansas?
Van Buren County, Arkansas has a population of 15,998 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Van Buren County, Arkansas?
Median household income in Van Buren County, Arkansas is $50,354 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Van Buren County, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Van Buren County, Arkansas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.