HarrisDemocratic32.5%5,019TrumpRepublican66.0%10,196KennedyIndependent0.7%113
R+33.5- Lead
- 5,177
- Total
- 15,448
- vs nation
- R+32.0
- Turnout
- 54.8%
Akashiccounty
Union County, AR
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 54.8% of 28,309 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic33.6%5,584TrumpRepublican63.1%10,478JorgensenLibertarian1.1%182
R+29.5- Lead
- 4,894
- Total
- 16,607
- vs nation
- R+33.9
- Turnout
- 56.9%
ClintonDemocratic35.3%5,855TrumpRepublican63.0%10,456JohnsonLibertarian1.7%275
R+27.7- Lead
- 4,601
- Total
- 16,586
- vs nation
- R+29.8
- Turnout
- 56.5%
ObamaDemocratic36.1%6,196RomneyRepublican62.3%10,699OtherAll other candidates1.6%282
R+26.2- Lead
- 4,503
- Total
- 17,177
- vs nation
- R+30.1
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic36.0%6,190McCainRepublican62.2%10,677OtherAll other candidates1.8%312
R+26.1- Lead
- 4,487
- Total
- 17,179
- vs nation
- R+33.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic39.7%7,071BushRepublican58.9%10,502OtherAll other candidates1.5%259
R+19.2- Lead
- 3,431
- Total
- 17,832
- vs nation
- R+16.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic40.1%6,261BushRepublican55.4%8,647NaderGreen0.8%130
R+15.3- Lead
- 2,386
- Total
- 15,609
- vs nation
- R+15.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic52.5%8,373DoleRepublican38.0%6,053PerotReform6.7%1,073
D+14.6- Lead
- 2,320
- Total
- 15,940
- vs nation
- D+6.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+33.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,9002024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,2592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 32.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+90.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+54.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Columbia County, AR · twin score 93.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 54.8%15,524 participants ÷ 28,309 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- +1.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 38.8%–39.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 16,987 | 30,046 | 56.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 12,502 | 29,577 | 42.3% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 16,608 | 29,191 | 56.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 11,829 | 28,944 | 40.9% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 15,524 | 28,309 | 54.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
28 precincts · 15,448 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Ward 2Ward 2 | 732 | 873 | 36 | 1,641 | 44.6% | 53.2% | R+8.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Ward 1Ward 1 | 787 | 695 | 24 | 1,506 | 52.3% | 46.1% | D+6.1 |
| Precinct -Ward 4Ward 4 | 649 | 670 | 28 | 1,347 | 48.2% | 49.7% | R+1.6 |
| Precinct -Country Box # 3Country Box # 3 | 113 | 1,084 | 11 | 1,208 | 9.4% | 89.7% | R+80.4 |
| Precinct -Ward 3Ward 3 | 849 | 197 | 29 | 1,075 | 79.0% | 18.3% | D+60.7 |
| Precinct -SmackoverSmackover | 223 | 627 | 11 | 861 | 25.9% | 72.8% | R+46.9 |
| Precinct -NorphletNorphlet | 111 | 639 | 6 | 756 | 14.7% | 84.5% | R+69.8 |
| Precinct -Country Box # 6Country Box # 6 | 157 | 584 | 12 | 753 | 20.8% | 77.6% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct -UnionUnion | 120 | 571 | 8 | 699 | 17.2% | 81.7% | R+64.5 |
| Precinct -Country Box # 4Country Box # 4 | 117 | 498 | 12 | 627 | 18.7% | 79.4% | R+60.8 |
| Precinct -LawsonLawson | 77 | 332 | 6 | 415 | 18.6% | 80.0% | R+61.4 |
| Precinct -CaledoniaCaledonia | 36 | 362 | 8 | 406 | 8.9% | 89.2% | R+80.3 |
| Precinct -StrongStrong | 211 | 160 | 5 | 376 | 56.1% | 42.6% | D+13.6 |
| Precinct -Country Box # 2Country Box # 2 | 39 | 330 | 2 | 371 | 10.5% | 88.9% | R+78.4 |
| Precinct -Three CreeksThree Creeks | 59 | 291 | 5 | 355 | 16.6% | 82.0% | R+65.4 |
| Precinct -LisbonLisbon | 42 | 292 | 3 | 337 | 12.5% | 86.6% | R+74.2 |
| Precinct -Junction CityJunction City | 94 | 224 | 3 | 321 | 29.3% | 69.8% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -HibanksHibanks | 54 | 254 | 2 | 310 | 17.4% | 81.9% | R+64.5 |
| Precinct -CalionCalion | 64 | 228 | 3 | 295 | 21.7% | 77.3% | R+55.6 |
| Precinct -HuttigHuttig | 135 | 131 | 4 | 270 | 50.0% | 48.5% | D+1.5 |
| Precinct -New LondonNew London | 46 | 219 | 2 | 267 | 17.2% | 82.0% | R+64.8 |
| Precinct -Country Box # 1Country Box # 1 | 83 | 169 | 2 | 254 | 32.7% | 66.5% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct -WessonWesson | 40 | 181 | 1 | 222 | 18.0% | 81.5% | R+63.5 |
| Precinct -AurelleAurelle | 83 | 115 | 4 | 202 | 41.1% | 56.9% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct -Mt HollyMt Holly | 39 | 146 | 0 | 185 | 21.1% | 78.9% | R+57.8 |
| Precinct -Country Box # 7Country Box # 7 | 36 | 129 | 3 | 168 | 21.4% | 76.8% | R+55.4 |
| Precinct -Woolleys StoreWoolleys Store | 14 | 152 | 2 | 168 | 8.3% | 90.5% | R+82.1 |
| Precinct -FelsenthalFelsenthal | 9 | 43 | 1 | 53 | 17.0% | 81.1% | R+64.2 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +78.2% |
| 1896 | +81.8% |
| 1900 | +56.5% |
| 1904 | +52.2% |
| 1908 | +44.4% |
| 1912 | +63.3% |
| 1916 | +72.2% |
| 1920 | +58.5% |
| 1924 | +56.8% |
| 1928 | +31.9% |
| 1932 | +90.3% |
| 1936 | +88.2% |
| 1940 | +81.4% |
| 1944 | +69.4% |
| 1948 | +54.6% |
| 1952 | +17.6% |
| 1956 | +15.7% |
| 1960 | +6.4% |
| 1964 | −9.8% |
| 1968 | −2.9% |
| 1972 | −54.0% |
| 1976 | +2.1% |
| 1980 | −14.9% |
| 1984 | −32.7% |
| 1988 | −26.9% |
| 1992 | +8.0% |
| 1996 | +14.6% |
| 2000 | −15.3% |
| 2004 | −19.2% |
| 2008 | −26.1% |
| 2012 | −26.2% |
| 2016 | −27.7% |
| 2020 | −29.5% |
| 2024 | −33.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 33 Senate · 2 Senate special · 15 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 27,756 |
| 2020 | 27,974 |
| 2022 | 26,531 |
| 2024 | 27,463 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−167 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −4,405 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,438 in average income, against $75,196 for residents who stayed — 33% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+17.6 on average — 16 points more Democratic-leaning than Union County, AR itself (R+33.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Ouachita County, AR68R+19.1
- Pulaski County, AR45D+22.1
- Columbia County, AR31R+36.5
- Union Parish, LA28R+57.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Pulaski County, AR64
- Ouachita County, AR53
- Union Parish, LA40
- Faulkner County, AR27
- Columbia County, AR23
- Washington County, AR20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −122 |
| 2012 | −593 |
| 2013 | −217 |
| 2014 | −410 |
| 2015 | −72 |
| 2016 | −252 |
| 2017 | −444 |
| 2018 | −226 |
| 2019 | −386 |
| 2021 | −434 |
| 2022 | −428 |
| 2023 | −354 |
| 2024 | −300 |
| 2025 | −167 |
Union County anchored Arkansas's oil boom from the 1920s onward, and El Dorado remains its economic center. That extractive-industry heritage tracks closely with the county's strong Republican lean in recent cycles, with 2024 margins exceeding 33 points.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 90.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 54.0 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 33.5 points.
A population of 37,900, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,259 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Columbia County and Ouachita County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Columbia County
Arkansas
93.5twin score
elasticity% unaffiliated% Black≠ median age
Ouachita County
Arkansas
89.9twin score
elasticity% Black% Catholic≠ % Evangelical
Ashley County
Arkansas
87.1twin score
% unaffiliated% Evangelical% Black≠ 12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Union County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05139/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Union County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Union County, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Union County, Arkansas voted Republican by 33.5 points (R+33.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 15,448 votes cast, 5,019 went Democratic and 10,196 went Republican.
When did Union County, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Union County, Arkansas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Union County, Arkansas?
Union County, Arkansas has a population of 37,900 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Union County, Arkansas?
Median household income in Union County, Arkansas is $55,259 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Union County, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Union County, Arkansas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.