HarrisDemocratic34.5%1,056,265TrumpRepublican64.2%1,966,865KennedyIndependent0.7%21,535
R+29.7- Lead
- 910,600
- Total
- 3,063,942
- vs nation
- R+28.2
- Turnout
- 58.6%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+29.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 7,066,3832024 5-year
- Population density
- 171 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 41,225 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $69,5952024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 71.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 15.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+37.9 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+38.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Alabama, AL · twin score 94.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.6%3,090,161 participants ÷ 5,275,349 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +26.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 31.8%–41.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,545,271 | 4,876,605 | 52.2% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,267,428 | 4,964,909 | 45.7% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,074,692 | 5,082,240 | 60.5% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 1,756,397 | 5,206,668 | 33.7% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,090,161 | 5,275,349 | 58.6% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Tennessee · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
68.8%
328,083 votes · D+37.9
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 67.3%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
67.7%
813,147 votes · R+38.0
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 64.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
1,143,711votes
37.5% of the vote · R+23.2
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 1,089,883 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,966,865votes
64.2% of the vote · R+29.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,852,475 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+34.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+9.3 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +30.5 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+28.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+29.7 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +28.1 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governoropen seat
Marsha BlackburnnomineeJerri GreennomineeLauren PinkstonnomineeJohn Rose
Open seat; Gov. Bill Lee term-limited. Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the Aug. 6 GOP primary with ~43% over Rep. John Rose (~33%); Memphis councilmember Jerri Green won the Dem primary with 69.0%. Either winner would be Tennessee's first female governor.
U.S. Senate
Bill HagertynomineeMarquita Bradshawnominee
Hagerty unopposed in the Aug. 6 GOP primary. Bradshaw, the 2020 nominee, won the Democratic primary with 54.8% — a Hagerty-Bradshaw rematch.
U.S. House elections · 222 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 1 · R 8 | 33.4% | 64.4% | 2,926,955 | |
| D 1 · R 8 | 34.0% | 64.3% | 1,710,425 | |
| D 2 · R 7 | 38.9% | 59.3% | 2,841,744 | |
| D 2 · R 7 | 39.2% | 59.2% | 2,159,825 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 4,110,318 |
| 2018 | 4,163,359 |
| 2020 | 4,436,727 |
| 2022 | 4,549,183 |
| 2024 | 4,825,601 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+42,389 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +534,493 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +16,968 |
| 2012 | +26,761 |
| 2013 | +13,438 |
| 2014 | +22,248 |
| 2015 | +24,156 |
| 2016 | +32,954 |
| 2017 | +42,619 |
| 2018 | +41,341 |
| 2019 | +36,009 |
| 2021 | +46,401 |
| 2022 | +82,316 |
| 2023 | +60,397 |
| 2024 | +46,496 |
| 2025 | +42,389 |
A Republican state by 29.7 points, its Democratic vote cut down to two cities — Nashville and majority-Black Memphis — while the mountain east has held Republican since the Civil War.
- A Republican state
- R+23.2 (2020) → R+29.7 (2024) — Trump 1,966,865 to Harris 1,056,265; last Democratic win was Clinton in 1996 (D+2.4) · MIT Election Lab
- Bluest and reddest
- Davidson (Nashville) D+27.4; Scott County R+79.8 · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The two urban islands
- Davidson (Nashville) D+27.4 and Shelby (Memphis, majority Black) D+25.4 — Shelby cast the most Democratic votes of any county, 201,759; rural Haywood was the only other D county, by 25 votes · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The Unionist east
- Knox County (Knoxville) R+19.5 — East Tennessee has voted Republican since its Unionist highlands resisted secession in the Civil War · MIT Election Lab 2024
- Middle Tennessee moves right
- Maury County: R+26.9 (2012) → R+44.6 (2024), a 17.7-pt shift; Knox narrowed from R+29.2 (2012) to R+19.5 · MIT Election Lab
- Open governor in 2026
- Gov. Bill Lee (R) is term-limited; U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is the presumptive nominee, the Aug. 6 primaries not yet held · Akashic 2026 forecast
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Alabama
Alabama
94.0twin score
2016–2024 trajectory% Evangelical≠ % Black
Kentucky
Kentucky
90.6twin score
2008–2024 trajectory
Arkansas
Arkansas
86.4twin score
% Evangelical2016–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/TN/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Tennessee vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tennessee voted Republican by 29.7 points (R+29.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,063,942 votes cast, 1,056,265 went Democratic and 1,966,865 went Republican.
When did Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tennessee voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Tennessee?
Tennessee has a population of 7,066,383 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tennessee?
Median household income in Tennessee is $69,595 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Tennessee from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.