HarrisDemocratic33.9%704,043TrumpRepublican64.5%1,337,494KennedyIndependent0.8%16,769
R+30.5- Lead
- 633,451
- Total
- 2,074,530
- vs nation
- R+29.1
- Turnout
- 61.3%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+30.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 4,534,8242024 5-year
- Population density
- 115 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 39,486 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $63,7262024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+30.5 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Tennessee, TN · twin score 90.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 61.3%2,086,090 participants ÷ 3,401,788 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.5%–46.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 1,949,254 | 3,313,798 | 58.8% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 1,619,587 | 3,338,198 | 48.5% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 2,149,444 | 3,362,354 | 63.9% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 1,500,419 | 3,398,223 | 44.2% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 2,086,090 | 3,401,788 | 61.3% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Kentucky · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.0%
669,659 votes · D+28.4
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 59.1%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
64.5%
1,337,494 votes · R+30.5
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 63.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
772,474votes
36.2% of the vote · R+25.9
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 751,985 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,337,494votes
64.5% of the vote · R+30.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,326,646 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+26.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+0.4 · U.S. R+26.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +22.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+31.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+29.8 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +30.4 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
U.S. Senateopen seat
Andy BarrnomineeCharles Bookernominee
Open seat; incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) not seeking re-election, excluded. Barr won the GOP primary (60.5%) over Daniel Cameron (Nate Morris withdrew after Trump endorsed Barr). Booker won the Dem primary (47%) over Amy McGrath and Pamela Stevenson. No third-party general candidate confirmed as of 2026-06-25.
U.S. House elections · 158 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 1 · R 5 | 26.9% | 73.1% | 1,905,534 | |
| D 1 · R 5 | 33.5% | 65.1% | 1,463,418 | |
| D 1 · R 5 | 34.8% | 64.5% | 2,115,895 | |
| D 1 · R 5 | 39.0% | 59.6% | 1,569,798 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+4.7
Presidential vote · 2024R+30.5
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 26 points more Republican than the rolls.
3,555,291 registered voters · 2024
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+7,269 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +17,478 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +3,852 |
| 2012 | −3,564 |
| 2013 | −2,091 |
| 2014 | −7,102 |
| 2015 | −5,275 |
| 2016 | −3,752 |
| 2017 | +1,936 |
| 2018 | +226 |
| 2019 | −1,541 |
| 2021 | +3,010 |
| 2022 | +10,343 |
| 2023 | +7,154 |
| 2024 | +7,013 |
| 2025 | +7,269 |
Pike County voted Democratic by 29.6 points in 1996 and Republican by 65.4 in 2024 — a 95-point shift in a single generation.
- The federal-state split
- R+30.5 for president in 2024, yet Democrat Andy Beshear won the governorship in 2019 and again in 2023 · MIT Election Lab; Akashic officeholder roster
- The presidential floor
- R+15.1 (2000) → R+25.9 (2020) → R+30.5 (2024), after Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992 and 1996 · MIT Election Lab
- The two blue islands
- Fayette County (Lexington) D+18.1 and Jefferson County (Louisville) D+16.5 — together over a fifth of the statewide vote · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The coalfield’s turn
- Pike County D+29.6 (1996) → R+65.4 (2024), a 95-point shift; Floyd moved 104 points, Harlan 101; Martin County is now R+83.6, the reddest · MIT Election Lab
- Poor and Protestant
- Median household income $63,726 and the poverty rate 16.1% — each 46th of 50; 31.3% Evangelical adherents, 6th-highest · ACS 2024 5-year; 2020 U.S. Religion Census
- Open Senate seat in 2026
- McConnell, in office since 1984, is retiring; Rep. Andy Barr (R) vs Charles Booker (D); no governor’s race until 2027 · Akashic 2026 forecast
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Tennessee
Tennessee
90.6twin score
2008–2024 trajectory
Missouri
Missouri
85.5twin score
% Latino2016–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Alabama
Alabama
83.6twin score
2012–2024 trajectory≠ % Black
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/KY/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Kentucky voted Republican by 30.5 points (R+30.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,074,530 votes cast, 704,043 went Democratic and 1,337,494 went Republican.
When did Kentucky last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Kentucky voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Kentucky?
Kentucky has a population of 4,534,824 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Kentucky?
Median household income in Kentucky is $63,726 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Kentucky from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.