HarrisDemocratic40.1%1,200,599TrumpRepublican58.5%1,751,986OliverLibertarian0.8%23,876
R+18.4- Lead
- 551,387
- Total
- 2,995,327
- vs nation
- R+16.9
- Turnout
- 64.0%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+18.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 6,191,8142024 5-year
- Population density
- 90 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 68,746 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $70,7022024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28.6 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+24.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Kentucky, KY · twin score 85.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 64.0%3,000,895 participants ÷ 4,685,986 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 45.0%–49.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,842,230 | 4,547,880 | 62.5% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,439,328 | 4,585,994 | 53.2% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,084,045 | 4,630,115 | 66.6% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,220,595 | 4,666,685 | 47.6% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,000,895 | 4,685,986 | 64.0% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.0%
1,164,344 votes · D+28.1
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 63.7%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
62.3%
1,153,852 votes · R+24.7
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 60.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
1,441,947votes
49.3% of the vote · R+0.1
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 1,259,171 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,751,986votes
58.5% of the vote · R+18.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,718,736 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+19.6pts D vs U.S.
Place R+5.6 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +15.8 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+20.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+18.5 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +19.8 pts
U.S. House elections · 221 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 2 · R 6 | 38.5% | 58.5% | 2,924,863 | |
| D 2 · R 6 | 38.6% | 59.4% | 2,060,089 | |
| D 2 · R 6 | 39.4% | 58.0% | 2,973,421 | |
| D 2 · R 6 | 42.5% | 55.0% | 2,418,413 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,992,705 |
| 2018 | 3,900,324 |
| 2020 | 4,110,570 |
| 2022 | 4,023,498 |
| 2024 | 4,157,494 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+14,028 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,510 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −14,354 |
| 2012 | −11,827 |
| 2013 | −6,349 |
| 2014 | −8,993 |
| 2015 | −8,347 |
| 2016 | −5,789 |
| 2017 | −898 |
| 2018 | −2,697 |
| 2019 | −710 |
| 2021 | +17,735 |
| 2022 | +3,624 |
| 2023 | +9,682 |
| 2024 | +12,385 |
| 2025 | +14,028 |
The state that went with the presidential winner for a century now gives the Democratic candidate four jurisdictions out of 115 — Kansas City, the St. Louis area, and Columbia.
- The indicator that broke
- Matched the national winner every cycle 1904–2004 but one (1956); R since, widening to R+18.4 in 2024 · MIT Election Lab
- From near-tie to R+18
- R+0.1 (2008) → R+9.4 (2012) → R+18.5 (2016) → R+15.3 (2020) → R+18.4 (2024) · MIT Election Lab
- Three Democratic islands
- Jackson (Kansas City) D+19.3, St. Louis County D+23.4, St. Louis city D+64.6, Boone (Columbia) D+9.7 — the only four of 115 jurisdictions to go D · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The rural floor
- Wright County R+75.6, the widest in the state; most rural counties ran R+60 to R+80 · MIT Election Lab 2024
- Middling income and degrees
- Median household income $70,702 — 40th of 50, below the U.S. $80,734; 32.4% hold a bachelor’s degree, 32nd · ACS 2024 5-year
- Protestant majority
- 24.1% Evangelical adherents — 11th of 50; the state is 76% White, 11% Black · 2020 U.S. Religion Census; ACS 2024 5-year
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Kentucky
Kentucky
85.5twin score
% Latino2016–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Tennessee
Tennessee
79.8twin score
12-yr trend2016–2020 trajectorymedian income≠ % Evangelical
West Virginia
West Virginia
77.8twin score
% Latinomedian income% Asian≠ 2024 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/MO/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Missouri
Frequently asked questions
How did Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Missouri voted Republican by 18.4 points (R+18.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,995,327 votes cast, 1,200,599 went Democratic and 1,751,986 went Republican.
When did Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Missouri?
Missouri has a population of 6,191,814 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Missouri?
Median household income in Missouri is $70,702 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Missouri?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Missouri from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.