HarrisDemocratic35.2%12,598TrumpRepublican63.2%22,606OliverLibertarian1.0%352
R+28.0- Lead
- 10,008
- Total
- 35,743
- vs nation
- R+26.5
- Turnout
- 68.1%
Akashiccounty
Buchanan County, MO
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.1% of 63,130 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic36.6%13,445TrumpRepublican61.2%22,450JorgensenLibertarian1.4%529
R+24.5- Lead
- 9,005
- Total
- 36,713
- vs nation
- R+29.0
- Turnout
- 68.3%
ClintonDemocratic33.4%12,013TrumpRepublican59.3%21,320JohnsonLibertarian4.8%1,709
R+25.9- Lead
- 9,307
- Total
- 35,964
- vs nation
- R+28.0
- Turnout
- 58.5%
ObamaDemocratic44.4%15,594RomneyRepublican53.2%18,660GrayLibertarian2.0%702
R+8.7- Lead
- 3,066
- Total
- 35,106
- vs nation
- R+12.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic49.1%19,164McCainRepublican48.9%19,110OtherAll other candidates2.0%766
D+0.1- Lead
- 54
- Total
- 39,040
- vs nation
- R+7.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic46.9%17,799BushRepublican52.2%19,812OtherAll other candidates0.9%339
R+5.3- Lead
- 2,013
- Total
- 37,950
- vs nation
- R+2.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic49.2%17,085BushRepublican47.3%16,423NaderGreen2.2%776
D+1.9- Lead
- 662
- Total
- 34,751
- vs nation
- D+1.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic48.0%15,848DoleRepublican38.2%12,610PerotReform12.9%4,248
D+9.8- Lead
- 3,238
- Total
- 33,018
- vs nation
- D+1.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+28.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 83,5682024 5-year
- Median household income
- $62,1582024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+35.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+31.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Genesee County, MI · twin score 83.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 68.1%43,014 participants ÷ 63,130 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +24.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +5.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 43.3%–50.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 38,977 | 66,636 | 58.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 32,511 | 66,593 | 48.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 45,455 | 66,550 | 68.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 27,886 | 64,112 | 43.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 43,014 | 63,130 | 68.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
22 precincts · 35,743 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Central Christian ChurchCentral Christian Church | 1,555 | 2,667 | 65 | 4,287 | 36.3% | 62.2% | R+25.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -St. Peter Lutheran ChurchSt. Peter Lutheran Church | 1,169 | 1,988 | 57 | 3,214 | 36.4% | 61.9% | R+25.5 |
| Precinct -Huffman United Methodist ChurchHuffman United Methodist Church | 1,099 | 1,597 | 53 | 2,749 | 40.0% | 58.1% | R+18.1 |
| Precinct -The Evolution United Methodist ChurchThe Evolution United Methodist Church | 707 | 1,565 | 31 | 2,303 | 30.7% | 68.0% | R+37.3 |
| Precinct -Ashland United Methodist ChurchAshland United Methodist Church | 878 | 1,225 | 37 | 2,140 | 41.0% | 57.2% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -Missouri National GuardMissouri National Guard | 683 | 1,405 | 31 | 2,119 | 32.2% | 66.3% | R+34.1 |
| Precinct -The Keys Christian FellowshipThe Keys Christian Fellowship | 612 | 1,292 | 27 | 1,931 | 31.7% | 66.9% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -Knights Of Columbus HallKnights Of Columbus Hall | 782 | 1,119 | 19 | 1,920 | 40.7% | 58.3% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -Brookdale Student MinistryBrookdale Student Ministry | 804 | 982 | 27 | 1,813 | 44.3% | 54.2% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct -Wesley United Methodist ChurchWesley United Methodist Church | 582 | 1,110 | 29 | 1,721 | 33.8% | 64.5% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -Faith United ChurchFaith United Church | 611 | 1,013 | 25 | 1,649 | 37.1% | 61.4% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -Copeland Baptist ChurchCopeland Baptist Church | 481 | 773 | 15 | 1,269 | 37.9% | 60.9% | R+23.0 |
| Precinct -Willowbrook Community CenterWillowbrook Community Center | 301 | 926 | 19 | 1,246 | 24.2% | 74.3% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -St. Joseph Visitors BureauSt. Joseph Visitors Bureau | 595 | 603 | 22 | 1,220 | 48.8% | 49.4% | R+0.7 |
| Precinct -Faucett Lions ClubFaucett Lions Club | 241 | 779 | 12 | 1,032 | 23.4% | 75.5% | R+52.1 |
| Precinct -Pony Express MuseumPony Express Museum | 434 | 494 | 17 | 945 | 45.9% | 52.3% | R+6.3 |
| Precinct -Frazier Baptist ChurchFrazier Baptist Church | 237 | 673 | 12 | 922 | 25.7% | 73.0% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -Grace Calvary ChapelGrace Calvary Chapel | 238 | 636 | 11 | 885 | 26.9% | 71.9% | R+45.0 |
| Precinct -Agency Methodist ChurchAgency Methodist Church | 195 | 586 | 10 | 791 | 24.7% | 74.1% | R+49.4 |
| Precinct -DeKalb Community CenterDeKalb Community Center | 148 | 507 | 9 | 664 | 22.3% | 76.4% | R+54.1 |
| Precinct -Rushville Masonic LodgeRushville Masonic Lodge | 147 | 423 | 8 | 578 | 25.4% | 73.2% | R+47.8 |
| Precinct -St. Joseph Catholic ChurchSt. Joseph Catholic Church | 99 | 243 | 3 | 345 | 28.7% | 70.4% | R+41.7 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +11.1% |
| 1896 | +3.4% |
| 1900 | +3.4% |
| 1904 | −5.7% |
| 1908 | +7.8% |
| 1912 | +26.7% |
| 1916 | +16.8% |
| 1920 | −3.0% |
| 1924 | −7.9% |
| 1928 | −25.6% |
| 1932 | +28.0% |
| 1936 | +28.7% |
| 1940 | +16.7% |
| 1944 | +14.1% |
| 1948 | +27.7% |
| 1952 | −5.3% |
| 1956 | −5.0% |
| 1960 | −5.1% |
| 1964 | +35.5% |
| 1968 | −0.7% |
| 1972 | −31.4% |
| 1976 | +2.9% |
| 1980 | +1.2% |
| 1984 | −12.4% |
| 1988 | +9.6% |
| 1992 | +14.2% |
| 1996 | +9.8% |
| 2000 | +1.9% |
| 2004 | −5.3% |
| 2008 | +0.1% |
| 2012 | −8.7% |
| 2016 | −25.9% |
| 2020 | −24.5% |
| 2024 | −28.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 52,011 |
| 2018 | 51,240 |
| 2020 | 53,297 |
| 2022 | 50,200 |
| 2024 | 52,192 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−260 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −7,127 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,987 in average income, against $69,220 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+27.5 on average — about the same lean as Buchanan County, MO (R+28.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Andrew County, MO248R+51.7
- Jackson County, MO136D+19.3
- Clay County, MO106R+5.6
- Platte County, MO95R+3.1
- DeKalb County, MO73R+62.6
- Clinton County, MO66R+47.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Andrew County, MO273
- Jackson County, MO143
- Platte County, MO137
- Clay County, MO135
- Johnson County, KS68
- DeKalb County, MO56
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +231 |
| 2012 | −230 |
| 2013 | −411 |
| 2014 | −711 |
| 2015 | −905 |
| 2016 | −465 |
| 2017 | −774 |
| 2018 | −805 |
| 2019 | −1,137 |
| 2021 | −753 |
| 2022 | −767 |
| 2023 | −45 |
| 2024 | −95 |
| 2025 | −260 |
Anchored by St. Joseph, Missouri's fourth-largest city, Buchanan County has moved from a reliably competitive battleground to a consistent Republican stronghold, posting a 28-point presidential margin in 2024 despite its urban core.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 35.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 31.4 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 28.0 points.
A population of 83,568, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $62,158 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Genesee County and Calhoun County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Genesee County
Michigan
83.4twin score
12-yr trendmedian income% Catholic≠ 2012 margin
Calhoun County
Michigan
81.0twin score
2000–2008 trajectorypopulation scale
Macon County
Illinois
80.7twin score
2000–2008 trajectorypopulation scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Buchanan County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Buchanan County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Buchanan County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Buchanan County, Missouri voted Republican by 28.0 points (R+28.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 35,743 votes cast, 12,598 went Democratic and 22,606 went Republican.
When did Buchanan County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Buchanan County, Missouri voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Buchanan County, Missouri?
Buchanan County, Missouri has a population of 83,568 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Buchanan County, Missouri?
Median household income in Buchanan County, Missouri is $62,158 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Buchanan County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Buchanan County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 15 went Republican.