- Lead
- 3,346
- Total
- 4,780
- vs nation
- R+68.5
- Turnout
- 85.1%
Ozark County, MO
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 85.1% of 7,176 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,312
- Total
- 4,864
- vs nation
- R+72.5
- Turnout
- 79.2%
- Lead
- 2,915
- Total
- 4,505
- vs nation
- R+66.8
- Turnout
- 67.0%
- Lead
- 1,819
- Total
- 4,453
- vs nation
- R+44.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,257
- Total
- 4,686
- vs nation
- R+34.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,522
- Total
- 4,707
- vs nation
- R+29.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,231
- Total
- 4,292
- vs nation
- R+29.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 437
- Total
- 3,989
- vs nation
- R+19.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+70.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 8,8732024 5-year
- Median household income
- $44,1632024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Republican margin
- R+70.0 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Wayne County, MO · twin score 93.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 85.1%6,108 participants ÷ 7,176 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 69.4%–74.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,104 | 7,618 | 67.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,550 | 7,411 | 61.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,842 | 7,379 | 79.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,434 | 6,988 | 63.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 6,108 | 7,176 | 85.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
9 precincts · 4,780 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -BIG CREEKBIG CREEK | 150 | 710 | 8 | 868 | 17.3% | 81.8% | R+64.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -BRIDGESBRIDGES | 112 | 702 | 10 | 824 | 13.6% | 85.2% | R+71.6 |
| Precinct -BAYOU IBAYOU I | 98 | 581 | 4 | 683 | 14.3% | 85.1% | R+70.7 |
| Precinct -RICHLANDRICHLAND | 81 | 564 | 3 | 648 | 12.5% | 87.0% | R+74.5 |
| Precinct -BARREN FORKBARREN FORK | 80 | 515 | 3 | 598 | 13.4% | 86.1% | R+72.7 |
| Precinct -THORNFIELDTHORNFIELD | 40 | 344 | 4 | 388 | 10.3% | 88.7% | R+78.4 |
| Precinct -DAWTDAWT | 57 | 271 | 2 | 330 | 17.3% | 82.1% | R+64.8 |
| Precinct -LICK CREEKLICK CREEK | 40 | 203 | 3 | 246 | 16.3% | 82.5% | R+66.3 |
| Precinct -PONTIACPONTIAC | 40 | 154 | 1 | 195 | 20.5% | 79.0% | R+58.5 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −32.1% |
| 1896 | −7.3% |
| 1900 | −28.7% |
| 1904 | −39.0% |
| 1908 | −34.1% |
| 1912 | −5.6% |
| 1916 | −33.5% |
| 1920 | −61.3% |
| 1924 | −42.0% |
| 1928 | −66.0% |
| 1932 | −12.0% |
| 1936 | −37.3% |
| 1940 | −55.8% |
| 1944 | −62.3% |
| 1948 | −39.1% |
| 1952 | −55.5% |
| 1956 | −41.4% |
| 1960 | −56.5% |
| 1964 | −18.3% |
| 1968 | −47.3% |
| 1972 | −54.4% |
| 1976 | −13.3% |
| 1980 | −31.6% |
| 1984 | −40.4% |
| 1988 | −28.7% |
| 1992 | −4.5% |
| 1996 | −11.0% |
| 2000 | −28.7% |
| 2004 | −32.3% |
| 2008 | −26.8% |
| 2012 | −40.8% |
| 2016 | −64.7% |
| 2020 | −68.1% |
| 2024 | −70.0% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 7,269 |
| 2018 | 7,389 |
| 2020 | 7,357 |
| 2022 | 7,267 |
| 2024 | 7,634 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+112 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +828 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $55,389 in average income, against $49,276 for residents who stayed — 12% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+69.3 on average — about the same lean as Ozark County, MO (R+70.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Howell County, MO34R+66.7
- Douglas County, MO32R+72.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Howell County, MO30
- Baxter County, AR29
- Douglas County, MO24
- Greene County, MO24
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −55 |
| 2012 | −14 |
| 2013 | −49 |
| 2014 | −14 |
| 2015 | −26 |
| 2016 | −119 |
| 2017 | +72 |
| 2018 | −123 |
| 2019 | +155 |
| 2021 | +388 |
| 2022 | +258 |
| 2023 | +91 |
| 2024 | +152 |
| 2025 | +112 |
Ozark County's R+70 presidential margin in 2024 places it among the most Republican-leaning counties in the state, a pattern consistent with the deeply rural, Ozark-plateau communities that anchor its sparse population of fewer than 10,000.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 70.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 70.0 points.
A population of 8,873, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $44,163 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Wayne County and Douglas County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Ozark County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29153/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.