HarrisDemocratic20.2%5,867TrumpRepublican78.8%22,923OliverLibertarian0.6%173
R+58.6- Lead
- 17,056
- Total
- 29,097
- vs nation
- R+57.1
- Turnout
- 66.5%
Akashiccounty
Newton County, MO
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 66.5% of 44,028 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic20.4%5,818TrumpRepublican77.7%22,120JorgensenLibertarian1.4%385
R+57.3- Lead
- 16,302
- Total
- 28,454
- vs nation
- R+61.7
- Turnout
- 80.7%
ClintonDemocratic18.6%4,990TrumpRepublican76.7%20,553JohnsonLibertarian2.4%641
R+58.1- Lead
- 15,563
- Total
- 26,807
- vs nation
- R+60.1
- Turnout
- 68.2%
ObamaDemocratic25.5%6,425RomneyRepublican72.2%18,181GrayLibertarian1.6%398
R+46.7- Lead
- 11,756
- Total
- 25,193
- vs nation
- R+50.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic29.3%7,450McCainRepublican69.4%17,637OtherAll other candidates1.3%319
R+40.1- Lead
- 10,187
- Total
- 25,406
- vs nation
- R+47.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic27.5%6,564BushRepublican71.9%17,187OtherAll other candidates0.6%138
R+44.5- Lead
- 10,623
- Total
- 23,889
- vs nation
- R+42.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic30.5%6,447BushRepublican67.3%14,232NaderGreen1.5%326
R+36.8- Lead
- 7,785
- Total
- 21,162
- vs nation
- R+37.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic32.3%5,840DoleRepublican55.7%10,067PerotReform11.0%1,995
R+23.4- Lead
- 4,227
- Total
- 18,085
- vs nation
- R+31.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+58.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 60,1182024 5-year
- Median household income
- $66,3012024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+19.8 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Blount County, AL · twin score 93.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 66.5%29,287 participants ÷ 44,028 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +27.9 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +8.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 38.6%–44.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 29,391 | 43,077 | 68.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 22,679 | 43,063 | 52.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 34,977 | 43,334 | 80.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 23,107 | 43,787 | 52.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 29,287 | 44,028 | 66.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
23 precincts · 29,097 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -WEST NEOSHO PRECINCTWEST NEOSHO PRECINCT | 365 | 1,840 | 34 | 2,239 | 16.3% | 82.2% | R+65.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -DIAMOND PRECINCTDIAMOND PRECINCT | 306 | 1,846 | 23 | 2,175 | 14.1% | 84.9% | R+70.8 |
| Precinct -GRANBY PRECINCTGRANBY PRECINCT | 327 | 1,741 | 11 | 2,079 | 15.7% | 83.7% | R+68.0 |
| Precinct -HORNET PRECINCTHORNET PRECINCT | 373 | 1,620 | 13 | 2,006 | 18.6% | 80.8% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -SENECA PRECINCTSENECA PRECINCT | 303 | 1,636 | 16 | 1,955 | 15.5% | 83.7% | R+68.2 |
| Precinct -THURMAN PRECINCTTHURMAN PRECINCT | 408 | 1,347 | 25 | 1,780 | 22.9% | 75.7% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct -STAPLES #27 PRECINCTSTAPLES #27 PRECINCT | 494 | 1,222 | 21 | 1,737 | 28.4% | 70.4% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -WESTVIEW PRECINCTWESTVIEW PRECINCT | 207 | 1,329 | 9 | 1,545 | 13.4% | 86.0% | R+72.6 |
| Precinct -NEOSHO #1 PRECINCTNEOSHO #1 PRECINCT | 378 | 1,122 | 21 | 1,521 | 24.9% | 73.8% | R+48.9 |
| Precinct -EAST NEOSHO PRECINCTEAST NEOSHO PRECINCT | 245 | 1,069 | 17 | 1,331 | 18.4% | 80.3% | R+61.9 |
| Precinct -STAPLES WEST PRECINCTSTAPLES WEST PRECINCT | 337 | 858 | 10 | 1,205 | 28.0% | 71.2% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -CROWDER PRECINCTCROWDER PRECINCT | 213 | 972 | 15 | 1,200 | 17.8% | 81.0% | R+63.2 |
| Precinct -NEOSHO #4 PRECINCTNEOSHO #4 PRECINCT | 292 | 864 | 14 | 1,170 | 25.0% | 73.8% | R+48.9 |
| Precinct -REDING PRECINCTREDING PRECINCT | 280 | 868 | 15 | 1,163 | 24.1% | 74.6% | R+50.6 |
| Precinct -NEOSHO #2 PRECINCTNEOSHO #2 PRECINCT | 239 | 813 | 7 | 1,059 | 22.6% | 76.8% | R+54.2 |
| Precinct -STAPLES #21 PRECINCTSTAPLES #21 PRECINCT | 291 | 629 | 22 | 942 | 30.9% | 66.8% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -NEOSHO #3 PRECINCTNEOSHO #3 PRECINCT | 218 | 565 | 10 | 793 | 27.5% | 71.2% | R+43.8 |
| Precinct -RITCHEY PRECINCTRITCHEY PRECINCT | 90 | 501 | 7 | 598 | 15.1% | 83.8% | R+68.7 |
| Precinct -WENTWORTH PRECINCTWENTWORTH PRECINCT | 118 | 469 | 4 | 591 | 20.0% | 79.4% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct -FAIRVIEW PRECINCTFAIRVIEW PRECINCT | 86 | 487 | 4 | 577 | 14.9% | 84.4% | R+69.5 |
| Precinct -STELLA PRECINCTSTELLA PRECINCT | 70 | 487 | 4 | 561 | 12.5% | 86.8% | R+74.3 |
| Precinct -NEWTONIA PRECINCTNEWTONIA PRECINCT | 90 | 371 | 2 | 463 | 19.4% | 80.1% | R+60.7 |
| Precinct -STAPLES EAST PRECINCTSTAPLES EAST PRECINCT | 137 | 267 | 3 | 407 | 33.7% | 65.6% | R+31.9 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +2.0% |
| 1896 | +16.2% |
| 1900 | +3.5% |
| 1904 | −6.4% |
| 1908 | +1.8% |
| 1912 | +17.6% |
| 1916 | +3.6% |
| 1920 | −14.8% |
| 1924 | −6.9% |
| 1928 | −36.4% |
| 1932 | +19.8% |
| 1936 | +3.7% |
| 1940 | −12.6% |
| 1944 | −15.1% |
| 1948 | −1.9% |
| 1952 | −25.6% |
| 1956 | −17.0% |
| 1960 | −22.7% |
| 1964 | +10.0% |
| 1968 | −16.4% |
| 1972 | −42.8% |
| 1976 | −0.7% |
| 1980 | −29.4% |
| 1984 | −43.4% |
| 1988 | −29.2% |
| 1992 | −15.2% |
| 1996 | −23.4% |
| 2000 | −36.8% |
| 2004 | −44.5% |
| 2008 | −40.1% |
| 2012 | −46.7% |
| 2016 | −58.1% |
| 2020 | −57.3% |
| 2024 | −58.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 40,109 |
| 2018 | 38,531 |
| 2020 | 41,756 |
| 2022 | 40,789 |
| 2024 | 42,047 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+458 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +2,087 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $52,090 in average income, against $71,391 for residents who stayed — 27% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+48.7 on average — 9.9 points more Democratic-leaning than Newton County, MO itself (R+58.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jasper County, MO752R+46.7
- McDonald County, MO167R+68.8
- Benton County, AR78R+27.0
- Greene County, MO56R+20.8
- Barry County, MO53R+63.5
- Lawrence County, MO52R+63.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Jasper County, MO849
- McDonald County, MO110
- Benton County, AR64
- Greene County, MO60
- Barry County, MO52
- Ottawa County, OK45
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +194 |
| 2012 | −133 |
| 2013 | −311 |
| 2014 | −361 |
| 2015 | −73 |
| 2016 | −25 |
| 2017 | −35 |
| 2018 | −82 |
| 2019 | +3 |
| 2021 | +850 |
| 2022 | +636 |
| 2023 | +506 |
| 2024 | +460 |
| 2025 | +458 |
Newton County, anchored by Neosho in the Ozark border region, delivered a 58-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 — a spread typical of rural southwest Missouri's decades-long shift toward single-party dominance at the top of the ticket.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 58.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 58.6 points.
A population of 60,118, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,301 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Blount County and Lawrence County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Blount County
Alabama
93.0twin score
2000–2020 trajectory≠ 2008 margin
Lawrence County
Missouri
92.5twin score
2004–2016 trajectory
Pulaski County
Kentucky
92.5twin score
2004–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Newton County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29145/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Newton County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Newton County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Newton County, Missouri voted Republican by 58.6 points (R+58.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 29,097 votes cast, 5,867 went Democratic and 22,923 went Republican.
When did Newton County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Newton County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Newton County, Missouri?
Newton County, Missouri has a population of 60,118 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Newton County, Missouri?
Median household income in Newton County, Missouri is $66,301 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Newton County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Newton County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.