Akashic

county

Madison County, MO

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German16.7%21.3%12.5%

American16.0%6.8%5.3%

English12.4%11.9%9.5%

Irish11.5%11.8%9.4%

French2.8%2.2%1.6%

Norwegian1.1%——

Scottish1.0%1.8%1.3%

Italian0.7%3.2%4.8%

Mexican1.7%3.2%11.3%

Venezuelan0.7%——

Puerto Rican0.3%0.4%1.8%

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Madison County	Missouri	United States
Median age	41.1	39.2	39.1
Age 18–24	7.1%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	19.5%	17.9%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Madison County	Missouri	United States
Median household income	$54,434	$70,702	$84,427
Poverty rate	13.2%	12.6%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	16.3%	32.4%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Madison County	Missouri	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	2.6%	6.7%	22.3%
Spanish	1.2%	2.9%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Madison County	Missouri	United States
Catholic	2.3%	12.5%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	42.5%	24.1%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	47.4%	51.7%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	5.6%	5.7%	5.2%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 82.1% of 9,693 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic17.1%986TrumpRepublican82.1%4,721OliverLibertarian0.6%32

R+64.9

Lead: 3,735
Total: 5,753
vs nation: R+63.5
Turnout: 82.1%

BidenDemocratic18.0%1,019TrumpRepublican80.8%4,584JorgensenLibertarian0.9%53

R+62.8

Lead: 3,565
Total: 5,676
vs nation: R+67.3
Turnout: 80.9%

ClintonDemocratic19.1%1,005TrumpRepublican78.1%4,102OtherAll other candidates2.8%145

R+59.0

Lead: 3,097
Total: 5,252
vs nation: R+61.1
Turnout: 64.5%

ObamaDemocratic32.2%1,588RomneyRepublican65.5%3,227GrayLibertarian2.0%100

R+33.2

Lead: 1,639
Total: 4,930
vs nation: R+37.1
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic40.6%2,042McCainRepublican57.6%2,897OtherAll other candidates1.8%89

R+17.0

Lead: 855
Total: 5,028
vs nation: R+24.3
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic40.1%1,972BushRepublican59.1%2,905OtherAll other candidates0.8%41

R+19.0

Lead: 933
Total: 4,918
vs nation: R+16.5
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic41.8%1,828BushRepublican56.3%2,460NaderGreen1.0%42

R+14.5

Lead: 632
Total: 4,373
vs nation: R+15.0
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic50.4%2,351DoleRepublican34.2%1,595PerotReform13.4%625

D+16.2

Lead: 756
Total: 4,663
vs nation: D+7.7
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+64.9MIT Election Lab
Population: 12,7292024 5-year
Median household income: $54,4342024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 92.2%2024 5-year
Black: 0.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 2.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+24.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+64.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Owen County, KY · twin score 93.5

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 82.1%7,959 participants ÷ 9,693 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +34.2 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: +15.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 47.9%–56.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	6,101	9,458	64.5%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	4,496	9,380	47.9%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	7,543	9,323	80.9%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	4,491	9,612	46.7%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	7,959	9,693	82.1%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

7 precincts · 5,753 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Madison County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -CASTORCASTOR	303	1,674	15	1,992	15.2%	84.0%	R+68.8
Precinct -ST. FRANCOISST. FRANCOIS	176	811	4	991	17.8%	81.8%	R+64.1
Precinct -WARD I (FREDERICKTOWN)WARD I (FREDERICKTOWN)	122	501	9	632	19.3%	79.3%	R+60.0
Precinct -CENTRAL PRECCENTRAL PREC	100	524	3	627	15.9%	83.6%	R+67.6
Precinct -MARQUANDMARQUAND	93	456	7	556	16.7%	82.0%	R+65.3
Precinct -WARD III (FREDERICKTOWN)WARD III (FREDERICKTOWN)	109	424	5	538	20.3%	78.8%	R+58.6
Precinct -WARD II (FREDERICKTOWN)WARD II (FREDERICKTOWN)	83	331	3	417	19.9%	79.4%	R+59.5

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+21.5%
1896	+23.2%
1900	+13.2%
1904	−1.3%
1908	+2.8%
1912	+13.6%
1916	+3.1%
1920	−5.0%
1924	+2.9%
1928	−24.0%
1932	+24.3%
1936	+7.1%
1940	−1.8%
1944	−1.6%
1948	+9.2%
1952	−6.0%
1956	−9.6%
1960	−22.5%
1964	+21.5%
1968	−15.0%
1972	−32.3%
1976	+12.3%
1980	−7.8%
1984	−20.3%
1988	−7.7%
1992	+16.3%
1996	+16.2%
2000	−14.5%
2004	−19.0%
2008	−17.0%
2012	−33.2%
2016	−59.0%
2020	−62.8%
2024	−64.9%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	17.1%Harris986	82.1%Trump4,721	0.6%Oliver32 +1	R+64.9	R+2.1	R+63.5	5,753
All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican82.1%4,721 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic17.1%986 Chase OliverLibertarian0.6%32 Jill SteinIndependent0.2%14
2020	R	18.0%Biden1,019	80.8%Trump4,584	0.9%Jorgensen53	R+62.8	R+3.8	R+67.3	5,676
2016	R	19.1%Clinton1,005	78.1%Trump4,102	2.8%	R+59.0	R+25.7	R+61.1	5,252
2012	R	32.2%Obama1,588	65.5%Romney3,227	2.0%Gray100	R+33.2	R+16.2	R+37.1	4,930
2008	R	40.6%Obama2,042	57.6%McCain2,897	1.8%	R+17.0	D+2.0	R+24.3	5,028
2004	R	40.1%Kerry1,972	59.1%Bush2,905	0.8%	R+19.0	R+4.5	R+16.5	4,918
2000	R	41.8%Gore1,828	56.3%Bush2,460	1.0%Nader42	R+14.5	R+30.7	R+15.0	4,373
1996	D	50.4%Clinton2,351	34.2%Dole1,595	13.4%Perot625	D+16.2	R+0.1	D+7.7	4,663
1992	D	49.2%Clinton2,501	32.9%Bush1,673	17.7%Perot899	D+16.3	D+24.0	D+10.7	5,082
1988	R	46.1%Dukakis2,167	53.8%Bush2,528	0.2%	R+7.7	D+12.6	D+0.1	4,703
1984	R	39.9%Mondale1,862	60.1%Reagan2,808	0.0%	R+20.3	R+12.4	R+2.0	4,670
1980	R	45.2%Carter2,231	53.0%Reagan2,618	1.8%	R+7.8	R+20.1	D+1.9	4,938
1976	D	55.9%Carter2,229	43.6%Ford1,739	0.5%	D+12.3	D+44.6	D+10.2	3,989
1972	R	33.8%McGovern1,451	66.2%Nixon2,837	0.0%	R+32.3	R+17.4	R+9.2	4,288
1968	R	35.4%Humphrey1,521	50.3%Nixon2,164	14.3%	R+15.0	R+36.5	R+14.3	4,300
1964	D	60.8%Johnson2,718	39.2%Goldwater1,756	0.0%	D+21.5	D+44.0	R+1.1	4,474
1960	R	38.8%Kennedy1,874	61.2%Nixon2,960	0.0%	R+22.5	R+12.9	R+22.6	4,834
1956	R	45.2%Stevenson2,280	54.8%Eisenhower2,763	0.0%	R+9.6	R+3.6	D+5.8	5,043
1952	R	47.0%Stevenson2,375	53.0%Eisenhower2,676	0.0%	R+6.0	R+15.2	D+4.8	5,051
1948	D	54.6%Truman2,509	45.4%Dewey2,086	0.1%	D+9.2	D+10.8	D+4.7	4,599
1944	R	49.1%Roosevelt2,203	50.7%Dewey2,277	0.2%	R+1.6	D+0.2	R+9.1	4,488
1940	R	49.0%Roosevelt2,405	50.9%Willkie2,495	0.1%	R+1.8	R+9.0	R+11.8	4,905
1936	D	53.5%Roosevelt2,323	46.4%Landon2,013	0.1%	D+7.1	R+17.1	R+17.1	4,342
1932	D	62.0%Roosevelt2,347	37.7%Hoover1,428	0.3%	D+24.3	D+48.3	D+6.5	3,788
1928	R	38.0%Smith1,326	62.0%Hoover2,165	0.0%	R+24.0	R+27.0	R+6.6	3,491
1924	D	51.0%Davis1,665	48.1%Coolidge1,569	0.9%La Follette29	D+2.9	D+7.9	D+28.1	3,265
1920	R	47.2%Cox1,830	52.2%Harding2,023	0.6%	R+5.0	R+8.1	D+21.2	3,876
1916	D	51.0%Wilson1,310	47.8%Hughes1,230	1.2%	D+3.1	R+10.5	±0.0	2,571
1912	D	51.2%Wilson1,126	37.6%Taft827	11.2%	D+13.6	D+10.8	R+6.0	2,200
1908	D	50.1%Bryan1,321	47.3%Taft1,248	2.7%	D+2.8	D+4.1	D+12.3	2,639
1904	R	48.0%Parker1,076	49.3%Roosevelt1,106	2.7%	R+1.3	R+14.5	D+18.3	2,242
1900	D	55.9%Bryan1,153	42.7%McKinley881	1.3%	D+13.2	R+10.0	D+20.7	2,061
1896	D	61.3%Bryan1,256	38.1%McKinley780	0.6%	D+23.2	D+1.7	D+29.3	2,048
1892	D	58.0%Cleveland1,010	36.5%Harrison635	5.6%	D+21.5	—	D+19.9	1,742
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	16.9%957	83.1%4,717	5,674
2018	R	23.6%998	76.4%3,224	4,222

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	18.8%1,068	78.7%4,465	5,677
2022	R	19.4%721	78.1%2,907	3,720
2018Class I	R	26.2%Claire McCaskill1,166	70.2%Josh Hawley3,119	4,442
2016Class III	R	33.4%Jason Kander1,766	60.6%Roy Blunt3,203	5,289
2012Class I	D	48.1%Claire McCaskill2,360	45.7%Todd Akin2,242	4,910
2010Class III	R	33.6%Robin Carnahan1,190	60.6%Roy Blunt2,148	3,546
2006Class I	R	41.7%Claire McCaskill1,761	53.9%Jim Talent2,278	4,227
2004Class III	R	37.3%Nancy Farmer1,823	61.5%Kit Bond3,002	4,885
2000Class I	R	48.0%Mel Carnahan2,102	51.1%John Ashcroft2,239	4,382
1998Class III	R	42.5%Jeremiah Nixon1,432	54.7%Kit Bond1,844	3,370
1994Class I	R	32.8%Alan Wheat1,402	62.9%John Ashcroft2,690	4,278
1992Class III	R	43.3%Geri Rothman-Serot2,179	54.2%Kit Bond2,732	5,037
1988Class I	R	31.3%Jay Nixon1,446	68.5%John C. Danforth3,163	4,616
1986Class III	R	44.5%Harriett Woods1,616	55.5%Kit Bond2,013	3,629
1982Class I	D	51.8%Harriett Woods2,101	48.2%John C. Danforth1,952	4,053
1980Class III	R	48.9%Thomas Eagleton2,427	51.0%Gene McNary2,532	4,964
1976Class I	R	48.5%Warren E. Hearnes1,913	51.3%John C. Danforth2,025	3,946
1974Class III	D	59.0%Thomas Eagleton1,564	41.0%Thomas B. Curtis1,089	2,653
1970Class I	R	48.0%Stuart Symington1,966	51.7%John C. Danforth2,118	4,100
1968Class III	R	44.4%Thomas Eagleton1,804	55.6%Thomas B. Curtis2,260	4,064
1964Class I	D	60.1%Stuart Symington2,620	39.9%Jean P. Bradshaw1,738	4,358
1962Class III	D	52.5%Edward Long2,120	47.5%Crosby Kemper1,918	4,038
1958Class I	D	63.4%Stuart Symington2,514	36.6%Hazel Palmer1,450	3,964
1956Class III	D	51.2%Thomas Hennings Jr.2,535	48.8%Herbert Douglas2,419	4,954
1952Class I	D	50.7%Stuart Symington2,542	49.3%James P. Kem2,471	5,013
1950Class III	D	51.4%Thomas Hennings Jr.2,165	48.6%Forrest C. Donnell2,045	4,210
1946Class I	R	47.5%Frank Briggs1,794	52.4%James P. Kem1,982	3,780
1944Class III	R	49.1%Roy McKittrick2,188	50.8%Forrest C. Donnell2,261	4,453
1940Class I	R	48.0%Harry S. Truman2,399	52.0%Manvel H. Davis2,602	5,002
1938Class III	D	54.4%J. Bennett Clark2,150	45.6%Henry S. Caulfield1,804	3,954
1934Class I	D	52.6%Harry S. Truman2,050	47.3%Roscoe Patterson1,845	3,900
1932Class III	D	62.0%J. Bennett Clark2,334	37.8%Henry W. Kiel1,424	3,764
1928Class I	R	46.1%Charles M. Hay1,641	53.9%Roscoe Patterson1,916	3,557
1926Class III	D	54.3%Harry B. Hawes1,483	45.2%George H. Williams1,234	2,729
1922Class I	D	49.9%James A. Reed1,385	49.8%R.R. Brewster1,384	2,778
1920Class III	R	47.6%Breckinridge Long1,848	51.9%Selden Spencer2,016	3,881
1916Class I	D	50.9%James A. Reed1,325	48.3%Walter S. Dickey1,258	2,605
1914Class III	D	49.8%William Stone994	47.7%Thomas Akins952	1,995

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2002Special · Class I	R	46.7%Jean Carnahan1,599	51.9%Jim Talent1,774	3,421
1960Special · Class III	R	45.7%Edward V. Long2,175	54.3%Lon Hocker2,582	4,757
1918Special · Class III	R	48.2%Joseph Folk932	51.2%Selden Spencer991	1,935

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	16.6%Crystal Quade940	81.2%Mike Kehoe4,598	5,661
2020	R	19.9%Nicole Galloway1,126	77.1%Mike Parson4,362	5,658
2016	R	32.2%Chris Koster1,707	64.2%Eric Greitens3,405	5,307
2012	D	50.2%Jay Nixon2,455	46.9%Dave Spence2,298	4,895
2008	D	54.3%Jay Nixon2,719	43.1%Kenny Hulshof2,160	5,008
2004	R	40.5%Claire McCaskill1,972	57.9%Matt Blunt2,819	4,872
2000	R	46.8%Bob Holden2,050	50.5%Jim Talent2,210	4,376
1996	D	60.5%Mel Carnahan2,809	36.8%Margaret B. Kelly1,709	4,642
1992	D	54.4%Mel Carnahan2,728	45.6%William L. Webster2,289	5,017
1988	R	36.4%Betty Hearnes1,717	63.4%John Ashcroft2,989	4,714
1984	R	41.1%Ken Rothman1,913	58.9%John Ashcroft2,746	4,659
1980	R	41.9%Joseph Teasdale2,088	58.0%Kit Bond2,889	4,981
1976	R	49.6%Joseph Teasdale1,966	50.3%Kit Bond1,994	3,961

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Madison County, MO
Year	Total registered
2016	7,826
2018	7,929
2020	8,391
2022	8,187
2024	8,595

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

+41 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net +580 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $39,306 in average income, against $58,406 for residents who stayed — 33% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+51.4 on average — 14 points more Democratic-leaning than Madison County, MO itself (R+64.9).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

St. Francois County, MO111R+51.4

Where departures went households, 2022–23

St. Francois County, MO86

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Madison County, MO in Madison County, MO: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+35
2012	+136
2013	−81
2014	−39
2015	+23
2016	+61
2017	+39
2018	−9
2019	−55
2021	+133
2022	+154
2023	+10
2024	+132
2025	+41

Madison County's R+64.9 margin in 2024 places it among the state's most heavily one-sided jurisdictions, a pattern consistent with the rural Ozark-fringe counties that have shifted sharply over the past two decades.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 24.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 64.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 64.9 points.

A population of 12,729, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,434 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Owen County and Oregon County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Owen County

Kentucky

93.5twin score

12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectory% Evangelical

Oregon County

Missouri

93.2twin score

12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry

St. Clair County

Missouri

92.2twin score

2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ American ancestry

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Madison County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29123/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Madison County

Fredericktown

R+55

4.5K residents

Missouri at the ballot boxAll elections →

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Frequently asked questions

How did Madison County, Missouri vote in 2024?

In 2024, Madison County, Missouri voted Republican by 64.9 points (R+64.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,753 votes cast, 986 went Democratic and 4,721 went Republican.

When did Madison County, Missouri last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Madison County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.

How many people live in Madison County, Missouri?

Madison County, Missouri has a population of 12,729 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Madison County, Missouri?

Median household income in Madison County, Missouri is $54,434 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.

What is the political history of Madison County, Missouri?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Madison County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.

Measure

Madison County

Missouri

United States

Median age

41.1

39.2

39.1

Age 18–24

7.1%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

19.5%

17.9%

17.2%

Measure

Madison County

Missouri

United States

Median household income

$54,434

$70,702

$84,427

Poverty rate

13.2%

12.6%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

16.3%

32.4%

35.6%

Measure

Madison County

Missouri

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

2.6%

6.7%

22.3%

Spanish

1.2%

2.9%

13.6%

Measure

Madison County

Missouri

United States

Catholic

2.3%

12.5%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

42.5%

24.1%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

47.4%

51.7%

51.5%

Mainline Protestant

5.6%

5.7%

5.2%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+64.9MIT Election Lab

Population

12,7292024 5-year

Median household income

$54,4342024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

92.2%2024 5-year

Black

0.3%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

2.8%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+24.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+64.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Owen County, KY · twin score 93.5

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

6,101

9,458

64.5%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

4,496

9,380

47.9%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

7,543

9,323

80.9%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

4,491

9,612

46.7%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

7,959

9,693

82.1%

A/A

Madison County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -CASTORCASTOR

303

1,674

1,992

15.2%

84.0%

R+68.8

Precinct -ST. FRANCOISST. FRANCOIS

176

811

991

17.8%

81.8%

R+64.1

Precinct -WARD I (FREDERICKTOWN)WARD I (FREDERICKTOWN)

122

501

632

19.3%

79.3%

R+60.0

Precinct -CENTRAL PRECCENTRAL PREC

100

524

627

15.9%

83.6%

R+67.6

Precinct -MARQUANDMARQUAND

456

556

16.7%

82.0%

R+65.3

Precinct -WARD III (FREDERICKTOWN)WARD III (FREDERICKTOWN)

109

424

538

20.3%

78.8%

R+58.6

Precinct -WARD II (FREDERICKTOWN)WARD II (FREDERICKTOWN)

331

417

19.9%

79.4%

R+59.5

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	+21.5%
1896	+23.2%
1900	+13.2%
1904	−1.3%
1908	+2.8%
1912	+13.6%
1916	+3.1%
1920	−5.0%
1924	+2.9%
1928	−24.0%
1932	+24.3%
1936	+7.1%
1940	−1.8%
1944	−1.6%
1948	+9.2%
1952	−6.0%
1956	−9.6%
1960	−22.5%
1964	+21.5%
1968	−15.0%
1972	−32.3%
1976	+12.3%
1980	−7.8%
1984	−20.3%
1988	−7.7%
1992	+16.3%
1996	+16.2%
2000	−14.5%
2004	−19.0%
2008	−17.0%
2012	−33.2%
2016	−59.0%
2020	−62.8%
2024	−64.9%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

17.1%Harris986

82.1%Trump4,721

0.6%Oliver32 +1

R+64.9

R+2.1

R+63.5

5,753

All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent

Donald J TrumpRepublican82.1%4,721
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic17.1%986
Chase OliverLibertarian0.6%32
Jill SteinIndependent0.2%14

2020

18.0%Biden1,019

80.8%Trump4,584

0.9%Jorgensen53

R+62.8

R+3.8

R+67.3

5,676

2016

19.1%Clinton1,005

78.1%Trump4,102

2.8%

R+59.0

R+25.7

R+61.1

5,252

2012

32.2%Obama1,588

65.5%Romney3,227

2.0%Gray100

R+33.2

R+16.2

R+37.1

4,930

2008

40.6%Obama2,042

57.6%McCain2,897

1.8%

R+17.0

D+2.0

R+24.3

5,028

2004

40.1%Kerry1,972

59.1%Bush2,905

0.8%

R+19.0

R+4.5

R+16.5

4,918

2000

41.8%Gore1,828

56.3%Bush2,460

1.0%Nader42

R+14.5

R+30.7

R+15.0

4,373

1996

50.4%Clinton2,351

34.2%Dole1,595

13.4%Perot625

D+16.2

R+0.1

D+7.7

4,663

1992

49.2%Clinton2,501

32.9%Bush1,673

17.7%Perot899

D+16.3

D+24.0

D+10.7

5,082

1988

46.1%Dukakis2,167

53.8%Bush2,528

0.2%

R+7.7

D+12.6

D+0.1

4,703

1984

39.9%Mondale1,862

60.1%Reagan2,808

0.0%

R+20.3

R+12.4

R+2.0

4,670

1980

45.2%Carter2,231

53.0%Reagan2,618

1.8%

R+7.8

R+20.1

D+1.9

4,938

1976

55.9%Carter2,229

43.6%Ford1,739

0.5%

D+12.3

D+44.6

D+10.2

3,989

1972

33.8%McGovern1,451

66.2%Nixon2,837

0.0%

R+32.3

R+17.4

R+9.2

4,288

1968

35.4%Humphrey1,521

50.3%Nixon2,164

14.3%

R+15.0

R+36.5

R+14.3

4,300

1964

60.8%Johnson2,718

39.2%Goldwater1,756

0.0%

D+21.5

D+44.0

R+1.1

4,474

1960

38.8%Kennedy1,874

61.2%Nixon2,960

0.0%

R+22.5

R+12.9

R+22.6

4,834

1956

45.2%Stevenson2,280

54.8%Eisenhower2,763

0.0%

R+9.6

R+3.6

D+5.8

5,043

1952

47.0%Stevenson2,375

53.0%Eisenhower2,676

0.0%

R+6.0

R+15.2

D+4.8

5,051

1948

54.6%Truman2,509

45.4%Dewey2,086

0.1%

D+9.2

D+10.8

D+4.7

4,599

1944

49.1%Roosevelt2,203

50.7%Dewey2,277

0.2%

R+1.6

D+0.2

R+9.1

4,488

1940

49.0%Roosevelt2,405

50.9%Willkie2,495

0.1%

R+1.8

R+9.0

R+11.8

4,905

1936

53.5%Roosevelt2,323

46.4%Landon2,013

0.1%

D+7.1

R+17.1

4,342

1932

62.0%Roosevelt2,347

37.7%Hoover1,428

0.3%

D+24.3

D+48.3

D+6.5

3,788

1928

38.0%Smith1,326

62.0%Hoover2,165

0.0%

R+24.0

R+27.0

R+6.6

3,491

1924

51.0%Davis1,665

48.1%Coolidge1,569

0.9%La Follette29

D+2.9

D+7.9

D+28.1

3,265

1920

47.2%Cox1,830

52.2%Harding2,023

0.6%

R+5.0

R+8.1

D+21.2

3,876

1916

51.0%Wilson1,310

47.8%Hughes1,230

1.2%

D+3.1

R+10.5

±0.0

2,571

1912

51.2%Wilson1,126

37.6%Taft827

11.2%

D+13.6

D+10.8

R+6.0

2,200

1908

50.1%Bryan1,321

47.3%Taft1,248

2.7%

D+2.8

D+4.1

D+12.3

2,639

1904

48.0%Parker1,076

49.3%Roosevelt1,106

2.7%

R+1.3

R+14.5

D+18.3

2,242

1900

55.9%Bryan1,153

42.7%McKinley881

1.3%

D+13.2

R+10.0

D+20.7

2,061

1896

61.3%Bryan1,256

38.1%McKinley780

0.6%

D+23.2

D+1.7

D+29.3

2,048

1892

58.0%Cleveland1,010

36.5%Harrison635

5.6%

D+21.5

—

D+19.9

1,742

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

16.9%957

83.1%4,717

5,674

2018

23.6%998

76.4%3,224

4,222

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

18.8%1,068

78.7%4,465

5,677

2022

19.4%721

78.1%2,907

3,720

2018Class I

26.2%Claire McCaskill1,166

70.2%Josh Hawley3,119

4,442

2016Class III

33.4%Jason Kander1,766

60.6%Roy Blunt3,203

5,289

2012Class I

48.1%Claire McCaskill2,360

45.7%Todd Akin2,242

4,910

2010Class III

33.6%Robin Carnahan1,190

60.6%Roy Blunt2,148

3,546

2006Class I

41.7%Claire McCaskill1,761

53.9%Jim Talent2,278

4,227

2004Class III

37.3%Nancy Farmer1,823

61.5%Kit Bond3,002

4,885

2000Class I

48.0%Mel Carnahan2,102

51.1%John Ashcroft2,239

4,382

1998Class III

42.5%Jeremiah Nixon1,432

54.7%Kit Bond1,844

3,370

1994Class I

32.8%Alan Wheat1,402

62.9%John Ashcroft2,690

4,278

1992Class III

43.3%Geri Rothman-Serot2,179

54.2%Kit Bond2,732

5,037

1988Class I

31.3%Jay Nixon1,446

68.5%John C. Danforth3,163

4,616

1986Class III

44.5%Harriett Woods1,616

55.5%Kit Bond2,013

3,629

1982Class I

51.8%Harriett Woods2,101

48.2%John C. Danforth1,952

4,053

1980Class III

48.9%Thomas Eagleton2,427

51.0%Gene McNary2,532

4,964

1976Class I

48.5%Warren E. Hearnes1,913

51.3%John C. Danforth2,025

3,946

1974Class III

59.0%Thomas Eagleton1,564

41.0%Thomas B. Curtis1,089

2,653

1970Class I

48.0%Stuart Symington1,966

51.7%John C. Danforth2,118

4,100

1968Class III

44.4%Thomas Eagleton1,804

55.6%Thomas B. Curtis2,260

4,064

1964Class I

60.1%Stuart Symington2,620

39.9%Jean P. Bradshaw1,738

4,358

1962Class III

52.5%Edward Long2,120

47.5%Crosby Kemper1,918

4,038

1958Class I

63.4%Stuart Symington2,514

36.6%Hazel Palmer1,450

3,964

1956Class III

51.2%Thomas Hennings Jr.2,535

48.8%Herbert Douglas2,419

4,954

1952Class I

50.7%Stuart Symington2,542

49.3%James P. Kem2,471

5,013

1950Class III

51.4%Thomas Hennings Jr.2,165

48.6%Forrest C. Donnell2,045

4,210

1946Class I

47.5%Frank Briggs1,794

52.4%James P. Kem1,982

3,780

1944Class III

49.1%Roy McKittrick2,188

50.8%Forrest C. Donnell2,261

4,453

1940Class I

48.0%Harry S. Truman2,399

52.0%Manvel H. Davis2,602

5,002

1938Class III

54.4%J. Bennett Clark2,150

45.6%Henry S. Caulfield1,804

3,954

1934Class I

52.6%Harry S. Truman2,050

47.3%Roscoe Patterson1,845

3,900

1932Class III

62.0%J. Bennett Clark2,334

37.8%Henry W. Kiel1,424

3,764

1928Class I

46.1%Charles M. Hay1,641

53.9%Roscoe Patterson1,916

3,557

1926Class III

54.3%Harry B. Hawes1,483

45.2%George H. Williams1,234

2,729

1922Class I

49.9%James A. Reed1,385

49.8%R.R. Brewster1,384

2,778

1920Class III

47.6%Breckinridge Long1,848

51.9%Selden Spencer2,016

3,881

1916Class I

50.9%James A. Reed1,325

48.3%Walter S. Dickey1,258

2,605

1914Class III

49.8%William Stone994

47.7%Thomas Akins952

1,995

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2002Special · Class I

46.7%Jean Carnahan1,599

51.9%Jim Talent1,774

3,421

1960Special · Class III

45.7%Edward V. Long2,175

54.3%Lon Hocker2,582

4,757

1918Special · Class III

48.2%Joseph Folk932

51.2%Selden Spencer991

1,935

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

16.6%Crystal Quade940

81.2%Mike Kehoe4,598

5,661

2020

19.9%Nicole Galloway1,126

77.1%Mike Parson4,362

5,658

2016

32.2%Chris Koster1,707

64.2%Eric Greitens3,405

5,307

2012

50.2%Jay Nixon2,455

46.9%Dave Spence2,298

4,895

2008

54.3%Jay Nixon2,719

43.1%Kenny Hulshof2,160

5,008

2004

40.5%Claire McCaskill1,972

57.9%Matt Blunt2,819

4,872

2000

46.8%Bob Holden2,050

50.5%Jim Talent2,210

4,376

1996

60.5%Mel Carnahan2,809

36.8%Margaret B. Kelly1,709

4,642

1992

54.4%Mel Carnahan2,728

45.6%William L. Webster2,289

5,017

1988

36.4%Betty Hearnes1,717

63.4%John Ashcroft2,989

4,714

1984

41.1%Ken Rothman1,913

58.9%John Ashcroft2,746

4,659

1980

41.9%Joseph Teasdale2,088

58.0%Kit Bond2,889

4,981

1976

49.6%Joseph Teasdale1,966

50.3%Kit Bond1,994

3,961

Frequently asked questions

Voter registration in Madison County, MO
Year	Total registered
2016	7,826
2018	7,929
2020	8,391
2022	8,187
2024	8,595

How did Madison County, Missouri vote in 2024?

In 2024, Madison County, Missouri voted Republican by 64.9 points (R+64.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,753 votes cast, 986 went Democratic and 4,721 went Republican.

When did Madison County, Missouri last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Madison County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.

How many people live in Madison County, Missouri?

Madison County, Missouri has a population of 12,729 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Madison County, Missouri?

Median household income in Madison County, Missouri is $54,434 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.

What is the political history of Madison County, Missouri?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Madison County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.