HarrisDemocratic24.3%105,685TrumpRepublican74.5%323,896OtherAll other candidates1.2%5,055
R+50.2- Lead
- 218,211
- Total
- 434,636
- vs nation
- R+48.7
Akashicmedia market
Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
43 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic25.5%113,855TrumpRepublican72.9%325,692OtherAll other candidates1.6%7,041
R+47.4- Lead
- 211,837
- Total
- 446,588
- vs nation
- R+51.9
ClintonDemocratic24.4%105,073TrumpRepublican71.3%307,083OtherAll other candidates4.3%18,420
R+46.9- Lead
- 202,010
- Total
- 430,576
- vs nation
- R+49.0
ObamaDemocratic33.7%140,175RomneyRepublican64.3%267,572OtherAll other candidates2.0%8,523
R+30.6- Lead
- 127,397
- Total
- 416,270
- vs nation
- R+34.5
ObamaDemocratic39.2%170,914McCainRepublican59.1%258,089OtherAll other candidates1.7%7,410
R+20.0- Lead
- 87,175
- Total
- 436,413
- vs nation
- R+27.2
KerryDemocratic39.2%170,364BushRepublican60.1%260,882OtherAll other candidates0.7%2,881
R+20.9- Lead
- 90,518
- Total
- 434,127
- vs nation
- R+18.4
GoreDemocratic43.6%172,625BushRepublican54.0%214,094OtherAll other candidates2.4%9,524
R+10.5- Lead
- 41,469
- Total
- 396,243
- vs nation
- R+11.0
ClintonDemocratic49.4%185,319DoleRepublican39.5%148,178OtherAll other candidates11.1%41,634
D+9.9- Lead
- 37,141
- Total
- 375,131
- vs nation
- D+1.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+50.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 934,1602024 5-year
- Population density
- 52 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 18,061 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $57,8012024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Tri-Cities, TN-VA · twin score 91.6
presidential history
Party record book
Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
65.5%
221,926 votes · D+32.4
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 65.0%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
74.5%
323,896 votes · R+50.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 72.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1940
230,102votes
55.8% of the vote · D+12.0
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 229,561 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
325,692votes
72.9% of the vote · R+47.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 323,896 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+28.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+3.8 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +23.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+51.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+47.4 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +49.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
On a multi-state Place, each row sums votes cast in the separate U.S. House races held inside the Place that year. It is a geographic vote total, not one contest or a seat tally.
Some U.S. House rows cover a contest held in only part of this Place — the votes are real, but the total is not place-wide because the rest of the Place had no such race that year.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registered voters
† Some years predate full county coverage; a flagged year sums only the counties reporting it.
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 (partial) | 511,409 |
| 2018 (partial) | 499,168 |
| 2020 (partial) | 522,787 |
| 2022 (partial) | 481,532 |
| 2024 | 691,117 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+1,718 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −24,887 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +317 |
| 2012 | −4,299 |
| 2013 | −1,636 |
| 2014 | −4,079 |
| 2015 | −3,661 |
| 2016 | −4,820 |
| 2017 | −4,512 |
| 2018 | −3,917 |
| 2019 | −4,881 |
| 2021 | +662 |
| 2022 | +1,340 |
| 2023 | +1,237 |
| 2024 | +1,644 |
| 2025 | +1,718 |
Spanning corners of Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, and Tennessee, this mid-Mississippi media market forces campaigns to buy across multiple state lines to reach a relatively small, predominantly rural audience that has shifted decisively toward Republican margins over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 50.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 2.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 50.2 points.
A population of 934,160, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,801 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Tri-Cities, TN-VA and Springfield, MO.
Political twins — media markets
The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Tri-Cities, TN-VA
91.6twin score
2016–2024 trajectory% Evangelical≠ median age
Springfield, MO
91.0twin score
2016–2024 trajectory% Evangelical
Joplin-Pittsburg
Kansas
89.7twin score
2012–2024 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/632/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg
counties43
Alexander CountyBallard CountyBollinger CountyButler CountyCaldwell CountyCalloway CountyCape Girardeau CountyCarlisle CountyCarter CountyCrittenden CountyDunklin CountyFranklin CountyFulton CountyGallatin CountyGraves CountyHamilton CountyHardin CountyHickman CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyJohnson CountyLake CountyLivingston CountyLyon County+19 more
Frequently asked questions
How did Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois voted Republican by 50.2 points (R+50.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 434,636 votes cast, 105,685 went Democratic and 323,896 went Republican.
When did Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois?
Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois has a population of 934,160 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois?
Median household income in Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois is $57,801 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Paducah-Cape Girardeau-Harrisburg, Illinois from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 15 went Republican.