HarrisDemocratic29.0%16,602TrumpRepublican69.6%39,896OtherAll other candidates1.4%794
R+40.7- Lead
- 23,294
- Total
- 57,292
- vs nation
- R+39.2
Akashicmedia market
Ottumwa-Kirksville
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
10 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic31.9%19,000TrumpRepublican66.3%39,463OtherAll other candidates1.7%1,015
R+34.4- Lead
- 20,463
- Total
- 59,478
- vs nation
- R+38.9
ClintonDemocratic30.8%17,772TrumpRepublican63.1%36,391OtherAll other candidates6.0%3,472
R+32.3- Lead
- 18,619
- Total
- 57,635
- vs nation
- R+34.4
ObamaDemocratic44.6%25,746RomneyRepublican52.8%30,482OtherAll other candidates2.6%1,479
R+8.2- Lead
- 4,736
- Total
- 57,707
- vs nation
- R+12.1
ObamaDemocratic48.0%29,071McCainRepublican49.6%30,065OtherAll other candidates2.4%1,483
R+1.6- Lead
- 994
- Total
- 60,619
- vs nation
- R+8.9
KerryDemocratic46.2%28,380BushRepublican52.8%32,466OtherAll other candidates1.0%632
R+6.6- Lead
- 4,086
- Total
- 61,478
- vs nation
- R+4.2
GoreDemocratic43.1%24,700BushRepublican52.0%29,779OtherAll other candidates4.9%2,837
R+8.9- Lead
- 5,079
- Total
- 57,316
- vs nation
- R+9.4
ClintonDemocratic46.7%25,948DoleRepublican38.7%21,480OtherAll other candidates14.6%8,088
D+8.0- Lead
- 4,468
- Total
- 55,516
- vs nation
- R+0.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+40.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 127,1522024 5-year
- Population density
- 25 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 5,132 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $63,7722024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+26.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Zanesville, OH · twin score 95.9
presidential history
Party record book
Ottumwa-Kirksville · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
63.3%
41,066 votes · D+26.8
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 58.6%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
69.6%
39,896 votes · R+40.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 66.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
43,096votes
52.3% of the vote · D+5.7
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 42,056 votes
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
46,515votes
61.5% of the vote · R+23.6
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 46,258 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Michael Dukakis1988
+11.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+3.5 · U.S. R+7.7
Runner-up · Walter Mondale, 1984 · +9.8 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+39.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+40.7 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +38.9 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
On a multi-state Place, each row sums votes cast in the separate U.S. House races held inside the Place that year. It is a geographic vote total, not one contest or a seat tally.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2014D+7.9
Presidential vote · 2024R+40.7
Ottumwa-Kirksville registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 49-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
† Some years predate full county coverage; a flagged year sums only the counties reporting it.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 (partial) | 47,516 | 19,488 | 12,292 | 15,714 | 22 |
| 2010 (partial) | 47,503 | 18,246 | 13,676 | 15,535 | 46 |
| 2012 (partial) | 47,490 | 17,582 | 13,769 | 16,056 | 83 |
| 2014 (partial) | 45,230 | 16,639 | 13,066 | 15,392 | 133 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−829 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −9,607 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −690 |
| 2012 | −540 |
| 2013 | −287 |
| 2014 | −856 |
| 2015 | −875 |
| 2016 | −851 |
| 2017 | −692 |
| 2018 | −672 |
| 2019 | −831 |
| 2021 | −222 |
| 2022 | −1,081 |
| 2023 | −424 |
| 2024 | −757 |
| 2025 | −829 |
This mid-Missouri and southeast-Iowa media market ties together small industrial cities like Ottumwa and Kirksville across a rural landscape where ag-economy pressures and population decline have steadily shifted the electorate toward wide Republican margins over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 26.8 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 40.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 6.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 40.7 points.
A population of 127,152, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $63,772 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Zanesville and St. Joseph.
Political twins — media markets
The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Zanesville
Ohio
95.9twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectorypopulation scale
St. Joseph
Missouri
89.9twin score
2016–2024 trajectorypopulation scale≠ 12-yr trend
Quincy-Hannibal-Keokuk
Missouri
85.9twin score
12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/631/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri voted Republican by 40.7 points (R+40.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 57,292 votes cast, 16,602 went Democratic and 39,896 went Republican.
When did Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri?
Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri has a population of 127,152 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri?
Median household income in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri is $63,772 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 24 went Republican.