HarrisDemocratic33.6%4,896TrumpRepublican65.0%9,479KennedyWe The People0.9%127
R+31.4- Lead
- 4,583
- Total
- 14,583
- vs nation
- R+30.0
- Turnout
- 59.1%
Akashiccounty
Wapello County, IA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 59.1% of 24,880 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic37.2%5,821TrumpRepublican60.9%9,516JorgensenLibertarian1.3%200
R+23.6- Lead
- 3,695
- Total
- 15,633
- vs nation
- R+28.1
- Turnout
- 61.2%
ClintonDemocratic36.6%5,594TrumpRepublican57.0%8,715JohnsonLibertarian2.5%380
R+20.4- Lead
- 3,121
- Total
- 15,277
- vs nation
- R+22.5
- Turnout
- 60.0%
ObamaDemocratic54.9%8,663RomneyRepublican43.1%6,789JohnsonLibertarian0.7%110
D+11.9- Lead
- 1,874
- Total
- 15,770
- vs nation
- D+8.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic55.4%8,820McCainRepublican41.8%6,663OtherAll other candidates2.8%448
D+13.5- Lead
- 2,157
- Total
- 15,931
- vs nation
- D+6.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic54.6%9,125BushRepublican44.3%7,403OtherAll other candidates1.1%179
D+10.3- Lead
- 1,722
- Total
- 16,707
- vs nation
- D+12.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic55.2%8,355BushRepublican41.7%6,313NaderGreen2.1%317
D+13.5- Lead
- 2,042
- Total
- 15,139
- vs nation
- D+13.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic57.1%8,437DoleRepublican32.7%4,828PerotReform9.3%1,376
D+24.4- Lead
- 3,609
- Total
- 14,770
- vs nation
- D+15.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+31.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 35,3622024 5-year
- Median household income
- $64,7662024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 75.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+39.6 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lee County, IA · twin score 88.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 59.1%14,697 participants ÷ 24,880 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 39.6%–43.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 15,277 | 25,445 | 60.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 12,174 | 25,692 | 47.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 15,735 | 25,723 | 61.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 10,603 | 25,398 | 41.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 14,697 | 24,880 | 59.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
22 precincts · 14,571 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Ottumwa 3Ottumwa 3 | 639 | 780 | 17 | 1,436 | 44.5% | 54.3% | R+9.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Ottumwa 2Ottumwa 2 | 522 | 687 | 20 | 1,229 | 42.5% | 55.9% | R+13.4 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 9Ottumwa 9 | 421 | 633 | 13 | 1,067 | 39.5% | 59.3% | R+19.9 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 8Ottumwa 8 | 317 | 624 | 13 | 954 | 33.2% | 65.4% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 10Ottumwa 10 | 361 | 580 | 10 | 951 | 38.0% | 61.0% | R+23.0 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 1Ottumwa 1 | 318 | 520 | 14 | 852 | 37.3% | 61.0% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct -Agency City/Twp/Pleasant TwpAgency City/Twp/Pleasant Twp | 208 | 566 | 13 | 787 | 26.4% | 71.9% | R+45.5 |
| Precinct -Adams Twp/Blakesurg City/PolkAdams Twp/Blakesurg City/Polk | 154 | 605 | 12 | 771 | 20.0% | 78.5% | R+58.5 |
| Precinct -Center TownshipCenter Township | 195 | 550 | 8 | 753 | 25.9% | 73.0% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 7Ottumwa 7 | 267 | 460 | 12 | 739 | 36.1% | 62.2% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 6Ottumwa 6 | 241 | 449 | 15 | 705 | 34.2% | 63.7% | R+29.5 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 5Ottumwa 5 | 282 | 348 | 5 | 635 | 44.4% | 54.8% | R+10.4 |
| Precinct -Washington TownshipWashington Township | 139 | 484 | 7 | 630 | 22.1% | 76.8% | R+54.8 |
| Precinct -Ottumwa 4Ottumwa 4 | 236 | 337 | 7 | 580 | 40.7% | 58.1% | R+17.4 |
| Precinct -Green TownshipGreen Township | 105 | 377 | 7 | 489 | 21.5% | 77.1% | R+55.6 |
| Precinct -Columbia TownshipColumbia Township | 119 | 359 | 3 | 481 | 24.7% | 74.6% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct -Keokuk TownshipKeokuk Township | 107 | 352 | 9 | 468 | 22.9% | 75.2% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct -Richland TownshipRichland Township | 104 | 291 | 3 | 398 | 26.1% | 73.1% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct -Dahlonega TownshipDahlonega Township | 94 | 189 | 2 | 285 | 33.0% | 66.3% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -Highland TwpHighland Twp | 31 | 110 | 3 | 144 | 21.5% | 76.4% | R+54.9 |
| Precinct -Competine TwpCompetine Twp | 16 | 105 | 1 | 122 | 13.1% | 86.1% | R+73.0 |
| Precinct -Cass TownshipCass Township | 20 | 73 | 2 | 95 | 21.1% | 76.8% | R+55.8 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −3.4% |
| 1896 | −3.3% |
| 1900 | −9.4% |
| 1904 | −30.1% |
| 1908 | −9.1% |
| 1912 | +4.1% |
| 1916 | −4.4% |
| 1920 | −39.6% |
| 1924 | −39.4% |
| 1928 | −33.0% |
| 1932 | +13.2% |
| 1936 | +15.8% |
| 1940 | +13.5% |
| 1944 | +13.0% |
| 1948 | +15.6% |
| 1952 | −5.1% |
| 1956 | +2.6% |
| 1960 | +0.4% |
| 1964 | +43.2% |
| 1968 | +8.3% |
| 1972 | −5.2% |
| 1976 | +20.1% |
| 1980 | +8.2% |
| 1984 | +19.4% |
| 1988 | +30.8% |
| 1992 | +23.7% |
| 1996 | +24.4% |
| 2000 | +13.5% |
| 2004 | +10.3% |
| 2008 | +13.5% |
| 2012 | +11.9% |
| 2016 | −20.4% |
| 2020 | −23.6% |
| 2024 | −31.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+3.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+31.4
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 28 points more Democratic.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 23,695 | 11,421 | 4,888 | 7,381 | 5 |
| 2010 | 23,697 | 10,802 | 5,603 | 7,283 | 9 |
| 2012 | 23,940 | 10,297 | 5,715 | 7,906 | 22 |
| 2014 | 23,107 | 9,687 | 5,461 | 7,916 | 43 |
| 2016 | 22,854 | 9,233 | 5,806 | 7,725 | 90 |
| 2018 | 22,112 | 8,632 | 5,654 | 7,714 | 112 |
| 2020 | 22,286 | 8,201 | 6,550 | 7,383 | 152 |
| 2022 | 21,668 | 7,257 | 6,891 | 7,349 | 171 |
| 2024 | 21,487 | 6,518 | 7,158 | 7,629 | 182 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−381 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,971 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $40,943 in average income, against $67,421 for residents who stayed — 39% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+33.3 on average — 1.9 points more Republican-leaning than Wapello County, IA itself (R+31.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Mahaska County, IA65R+51.4
- Davis County, IA48R+54.4
- Jefferson County, IA41R+6.8
- Polk County, IA35D+10.8
- Monroe County, IA31R+50.6
- Keokuk County, IA25R+51.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Polk County, IA86
- Mahaska County, IA63
- Keokuk County, IA34
- Jefferson County, IA33
- Davis County, IA32
- Marion County, IA31
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −300 |
| 2012 | −124 |
| 2013 | −55 |
| 2014 | −216 |
| 2015 | −64 |
| 2016 | −365 |
| 2017 | −473 |
| 2018 | −129 |
| 2019 | −154 |
| 2021 | −77 |
| 2022 | −367 |
| 2023 | −23 |
| 2024 | −243 |
| 2025 | −381 |
Wapello County, anchored by Ottumwa along the Des Moines River, was a union-labor stronghold that backed Democrats into the 2000s; by 2024 it recorded an R+31 presidential margin, tracing one of Iowa's steepest partisan realignments.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 39.6 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.4 points.
A population of 35,362, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,766 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lee County and Clarke County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Lee County
Iowa
88.6twin score
12-yr trend2000–2012 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
Clarke County
Iowa
87.9twin score
12-yr trend2000–2012 trajectory
Des Moines County
Iowa
87.3twin score
2000–2012 trajectory12-yr trend≠ Scottish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Wapello County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19179/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Wapello County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Wapello County, Iowa vote in 2024?
In 2024, Wapello County, Iowa voted Republican by 31.4 points (R+31.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 14,583 votes cast, 4,896 went Democratic and 9,479 went Republican.
When did Wapello County, Iowa last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Wapello County, Iowa voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Wapello County, Iowa?
Wapello County, Iowa has a population of 35,362 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Wapello County, Iowa?
Median household income in Wapello County, Iowa is $64,766 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.
What is the political history of Wapello County, Iowa?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Wapello County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.