- Lead
- 9,338
- Total
- 23,602
- vs nation
- R+38.1
- Turnout
- 56.6%
Johnson County, MO
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 56.6% of 41,798 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 8,515
- Total
- 23,172
- vs nation
- R+41.2
- Turnout
- 55.7%
- Lead
- 7,789
- Total
- 21,362
- vs nation
- R+38.6
- Turnout
- 52.0%
- Lead
- 5,096
- Total
- 21,021
- vs nation
- R+28.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,703
- Total
- 22,080
- vs nation
- R+19.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,467
- Total
- 20,236
- vs nation
- R+19.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,413
- Total
- 16,787
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 56
- Total
- 14,574
- vs nation
- R+8.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+39.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 54,7322024 5-year
- Median household income
- $67,2722024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+25.9 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Adair County, MO · twin score 82.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 56.6%23,667 participants ÷ 41,798 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 38.7%–43.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 21,564 | 41,472 | 52.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 17,834 | 41,246 | 43.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 23,123 | 41,509 | 55.7% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 15,672 | 41,464 | 37.8% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 23,667 | 41,798 | 56.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
10 precincts · 23,602 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -N&S HOLDEN/KINGSVILLE/ROSE HILLN&S HOLDEN/KINGSVILLE/ROSE HILL | 829 | 2,634 | 35 | 3,498 | 23.7% | 75.3% | R+51.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -WBG SE-2/WBG NEWBG SE-2/WBG NE | 1,321 | 1,993 | 63 | 3,377 | 39.1% | 59.0% | R+19.9 |
| Precinct -PITTSVILLEPITTSVILLE | 789 | 2,458 | 38 | 3,285 | 24.0% | 74.8% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct -WBG SE-1/MONTSERRATWBG SE-1/MONTSERRAT | 1,006 | 1,829 | 59 | 2,894 | 34.8% | 63.2% | R+28.4 |
| Precinct -KNOBNOSTER/LOWLANDKNOBNOSTER/LOWLAND | 777 | 1,958 | 41 | 2,776 | 28.0% | 70.5% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct -WBG SW/WBG NWWBG SW/WBG NW | 1,010 | 1,599 | 44 | 2,653 | 38.1% | 60.3% | R+22.2 |
| Precinct -CENTERVIEW/COLUMBUSCENTERVIEW/COLUMBUS | 404 | 1,178 | 17 | 1,599 | 25.3% | 73.7% | R+48.4 |
| Precinct -HAZEL HILL/SIMPSONHAZEL HILL/SIMPSON | 348 | 1,051 | 24 | 1,423 | 24.5% | 73.9% | R+49.4 |
| Precinct -POST OAK/JEFFERSONPOST OAK/JEFFERSON | 320 | 1,037 | 12 | 1,369 | 23.4% | 75.7% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct -CHILHOWEECHILHOWEE | 156 | 561 | 11 | 728 | 21.4% | 77.1% | R+55.6 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +6.8% |
| 1896 | +13.6% |
| 1900 | +8.2% |
| 1904 | +4.5% |
| 1908 | +7.4% |
| 1912 | +25.9% |
| 1916 | +10.9% |
| 1920 | −2.3% |
| 1924 | +2.5% |
| 1928 | −23.9% |
| 1932 | +22.5% |
| 1936 | +4.1% |
| 1940 | −8.6% |
| 1944 | −14.7% |
| 1948 | −0.2% |
| 1952 | −23.8% |
| 1956 | −18.6% |
| 1960 | −19.3% |
| 1964 | +19.2% |
| 1968 | −14.5% |
| 1972 | −40.7% |
| 1976 | +0.3% |
| 1980 | −8.0% |
| 1984 | −33.0% |
| 1988 | −16.6% |
| 1992 | +3.4% |
| 1996 | −0.4% |
| 2000 | −14.4% |
| 2004 | −22.1% |
| 2008 | −12.2% |
| 2012 | −24.2% |
| 2016 | −36.5% |
| 2020 | −36.7% |
| 2024 | −39.6% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 32,462 |
| 2018 | 32,048 |
| 2020 | 33,100 |
| 2022 | 33,191 |
| 2024 | 35,427 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+415 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,537 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $49,839 in average income, against $70,457 for residents who stayed — 29% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+12.8 on average — 27 points more Democratic-leaning than Johnson County, MO itself (R+39.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jackson County, MO368D+19.3
- Pettis County, MO124R+48.7
- Henry County, MO100R+52.6
- Lafayette County, MO94R+48.9
- Cass County, MO85R+32.1
- Johnson County, KS47D+8.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Jackson County, MO357
- Pettis County, MO125
- Lafayette County, MO85
- Cass County, MO82
- Henry County, MO76
- Johnson County, KS49
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +250 |
| 2012 | +205 |
| 2013 | −432 |
| 2014 | −646 |
| 2015 | −1,020 |
| 2016 | −363 |
| 2017 | −76 |
| 2018 | −422 |
| 2019 | +94 |
| 2021 | −34 |
| 2022 | +18 |
| 2023 | +184 |
| 2024 | +290 |
| 2025 | +415 |
Home to Warrensburg and the University of Central Missouri, Johnson County sits at the edge of the Kansas City metro but votes decidedly differently — its 2024 presidential margin of R+39.6 reflects deep rural Republican strength despite a sizable college-town presence.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 25.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 40.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 39.6 points.
A population of 54,732, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,272 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Adair County and Pulaski County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Johnson County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29101/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.