HarrisDemocratic32.1%12,874TrumpRepublican66.5%26,686OliverLibertarian0.9%379
R+34.4- Lead
- 13,812
- Total
- 40,152
- vs nation
- R+32.9
- Turnout
- 69.0%
Akashiccounty
Cole County, MO
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 69.0% of 59,076 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic32.0%12,694TrumpRepublican65.8%26,086JorgensenLibertarian1.5%603
R+33.8- Lead
- 13,392
- Total
- 39,645
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Turnout
- 85.2%
ClintonDemocratic29.0%10,913TrumpRepublican65.4%24,616JohnsonLibertarian3.7%1,377
R+36.4- Lead
- 13,703
- Total
- 37,656
- vs nation
- R+38.5
- Turnout
- 71.6%
ObamaDemocratic32.3%12,005RomneyRepublican65.9%24,490GrayLibertarian1.4%510
R+33.6- Lead
- 12,485
- Total
- 37,190
- vs nation
- R+37.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic36.0%13,959McCainRepublican62.9%24,385OtherAll other candidates1.0%401
R+26.9- Lead
- 10,426
- Total
- 38,745
- vs nation
- R+34.2
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic32.0%11,753BushRepublican67.4%24,752OtherAll other candidates0.5%196
R+35.4- Lead
- 12,999
- Total
- 36,701
- vs nation
- R+33.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic36.8%12,056BushRepublican61.5%20,167NaderGreen1.1%370
R+24.7- Lead
- 8,111
- Total
- 32,775
- vs nation
- R+25.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic37.0%10,857DoleRepublican55.0%16,140PerotReform7.2%2,121
R+18.0- Lead
- 5,283
- Total
- 29,342
- vs nation
- R+26.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+34.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 77,0322024 5-year
- Median household income
- $74,8762024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+23.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cape Girardeau County, MO · twin score 79.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 69.0%40,765 participants ÷ 59,076 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +27.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +8.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.5%–50.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 41,607 | 58,079 | 71.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 36,685 | 58,317 | 62.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 49,743 | 58,377 | 85.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 33,894 | 58,774 | 57.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 40,765 | 59,076 | 69.0% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
28 precincts · 40,152 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Liberty Township Taos PrecinctLiberty Township Taos Precinct | 676 | 2,149 | 33 | 2,858 | 23.7% | 75.2% | R+51.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Osage Township Wardsville PrecinctOsage Township Wardsville Precinct | 532 | 1,790 | 20 | 2,342 | 22.7% | 76.4% | R+53.7 |
| Precinct -Jefferson Township Apache Flats PrecinctJefferson Township Apache Flats Precinct | 798 | 1,484 | 35 | 2,317 | 34.4% | 64.0% | R+29.6 |
| Precinct -W4P2W4P2 | 741 | 1,430 | 39 | 2,210 | 33.5% | 64.7% | R+31.2 |
| Precinct -W4P1W4P1 | 777 | 1,350 | 32 | 2,159 | 36.0% | 62.5% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -Jefferson Township Scott Station PrecinctJefferson Township Scott Station Precinct | 606 | 1,333 | 32 | 1,971 | 30.7% | 67.6% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct -Marion Township St Martins PrecinctMarion Township St Martins Precinct | 469 | 1,405 | 29 | 1,903 | 24.6% | 73.8% | R+49.2 |
| Precinct -Jefferson Township JC Fair PrecinctJefferson Township JC Fair Precinct | 617 | 1,096 | 30 | 1,743 | 35.4% | 62.9% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -W5P1W5P1 | 752 | 940 | 27 | 1,719 | 43.7% | 54.7% | R+10.9 |
| Precinct -W3P3W3P3 | 618 | 1,049 | 29 | 1,696 | 36.4% | 61.9% | R+25.4 |
| Precinct -Jefferson Township CC General PrecinctJefferson Township CC General Precinct | 496 | 1,141 | 28 | 1,665 | 29.8% | 68.5% | R+38.7 |
| Precinct -Clark Township Brazito PrecinctClark Township Brazito Precinct | 329 | 1,221 | 15 | 1,565 | 21.0% | 78.0% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct -W3P1W3P1 | 512 | 796 | 24 | 1,332 | 38.4% | 59.8% | R+21.3 |
| Precinct -W5P2W5P2 | 466 | 805 | 22 | 1,293 | 36.0% | 62.3% | R+26.2 |
| Precinct -W1P2W1P2 | 479 | 786 | 15 | 1,280 | 37.4% | 61.4% | R+24.0 |
| Precinct -W3P2W3P2 | 458 | 790 | 18 | 1,266 | 36.2% | 62.4% | R+26.2 |
| Precinct -Moreau Township Russellville PrecinctMoreau Township Russellville Precinct | 281 | 949 | 21 | 1,251 | 22.5% | 75.9% | R+53.4 |
| Precinct -W1P3W1P3 | 420 | 762 | 21 | 1,203 | 34.9% | 63.3% | R+28.4 |
| Precinct -W1P1W1P1 | 547 | 583 | 22 | 1,152 | 47.5% | 50.6% | R+3.1 |
| Precinct -W2P2W2P2 | 464 | 616 | 19 | 1,099 | 42.2% | 56.1% | R+13.8 |
| Precinct -Clark Township Eugene PrecinctClark Township Eugene Precinct | 222 | 849 | 11 | 1,082 | 20.5% | 78.5% | R+57.9 |
| Precinct -Marion Township Centertown PrecinctMarion Township Centertown Precinct | 218 | 706 | 12 | 936 | 23.3% | 75.4% | R+52.1 |
| Precinct -W2P3W2P3 | 367 | 522 | 16 | 905 | 40.6% | 57.7% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct -Osage Township St. Thomas PrecinctOsage Township St. Thomas Precinct | 144 | 569 | 9 | 722 | 19.9% | 78.8% | R+58.9 |
| Precinct -Moreau Township Lohman PrecinctMoreau Township Lohman Precinct | 162 | 537 | 8 | 707 | 22.9% | 76.0% | R+53.0 |
| Precinct -W2P1W2P1 | 349 | 332 | 9 | 690 | 50.6% | 48.1% | D+2.5 |
| Precinct -W5P3W5P3 | 237 | 393 | 9 | 639 | 37.1% | 61.5% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -Jefferson Township Expressway Rental PrecinctJefferson Township Expressway Rental Precinct | 137 | 303 | 7 | 447 | 30.6% | 67.8% | R+37.1 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +2.5% |
| 1896 | +3.9% |
| 1900 | +3.6% |
| 1904 | +3.7% |
| 1908 | +1.9% |
| 1912 | +7.1% |
| 1916 | +3.0% |
| 1920 | −17.0% |
| 1924 | −9.9% |
| 1928 | −1.2% |
| 1932 | +23.3% |
| 1936 | +17.5% |
| 1940 | +3.5% |
| 1944 | −1.6% |
| 1948 | +6.6% |
| 1952 | −12.7% |
| 1956 | −11.6% |
| 1960 | −6.7% |
| 1964 | −10.7% |
| 1968 | −29.6% |
| 1972 | −55.7% |
| 1976 | −28.5% |
| 1980 | −27.1% |
| 1984 | −50.5% |
| 1988 | −36.5% |
| 1992 | −16.2% |
| 1996 | −18.0% |
| 2000 | −24.7% |
| 2004 | −35.4% |
| 2008 | −26.9% |
| 2012 | −33.6% |
| 2016 | −36.4% |
| 2020 | −33.8% |
| 2024 | −34.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | R | 27.3%10,385 | 72.7%27,676 | 38,061 |
| 2018 | R | 29.5%9,646 | 70.5%23,049 | 32,695 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 53,691 |
| 2018 | 51,507 |
| 2020 | 54,218 |
| 2022 | 54,289 |
| 2024 | 53,756 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−70 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,917 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,713 in average income, against $81,294 for residents who stayed — 38% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+27.5 on average — 6.9 points more Democratic-leaning than Cole County, MO itself (R+34.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Callaway County, MO249R+43.3
- Boone County, MO248D+9.7
- Moniteau County, MO87R+62.7
- Miller County, MO83R+67.3
- Osage County, MO82R+73.1
- St. Louis County, MO64D+23.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Callaway County, MO296
- Boone County, MO240
- Moniteau County, MO90
- St. Louis County, MO82
- Jackson County, MO72
- Osage County, MO68
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −43 |
| 2012 | −399 |
| 2013 | −111 |
| 2014 | −434 |
| 2015 | −222 |
| 2016 | −426 |
| 2017 | −391 |
| 2018 | −180 |
| 2019 | −210 |
| 2021 | +9 |
| 2022 | +254 |
| 2023 | +164 |
| 2024 | +142 |
| 2025 | −70 |
Despite housing the state capitol and its government workforce, Cole County voted Republican by 34 points in 2024, reflecting how decisively small-city Missouri has shifted from its once-competitive roots.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 23.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 55.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 34.4 points.
A population of 77,032, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,876 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cape Girardeau County and Warren County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Cape Girardeau County
Missouri
79.3twin score
12-yr trend2004 marginpopulation scale
Warren County
Ohio
74.8twin score
12-yr trendcollege share2004–2012 trajectory≠ median income
Campbell County
Kentucky
74.3twin score
12-yr trendcollege share% Catholic≠ Irish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Cole County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Cole County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Cole County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Cole County, Missouri voted Republican by 34.4 points (R+34.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 40,152 votes cast, 12,874 went Democratic and 26,686 went Republican.
When did Cole County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Cole County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1948.
How many people live in Cole County, Missouri?
Cole County, Missouri has a population of 77,032 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Cole County, Missouri?
Median household income in Cole County, Missouri is $74,876 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Cole County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Cole County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 23 went Republican.