HarrisDemocratic24.8%824TrumpRepublican73.8%2,451KennedyIndependent0.8%26
R+49.0- Lead
- 1,627
- Total
- 3,319
- vs nation
- R+47.5
- Turnout
- 57.3%
Akashiccounty
Nicholas County, KY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 57.3% of 5,828 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic28.1%955TrumpRepublican70.9%2,408JorgensenLibertarian0.8%27
R+42.8- Lead
- 1,453
- Total
- 3,396
- vs nation
- R+47.2
- Turnout
- 62.3%
ClintonDemocratic27.7%787TrumpRepublican68.9%1,957JohnsonLibertarian2.3%65
R+41.2- Lead
- 1,170
- Total
- 2,841
- vs nation
- R+43.3
- Turnout
- 53.9%
ObamaDemocratic36.7%948RomneyRepublican61.3%1,583OtherAll other candidates1.9%50
R+24.6- Lead
- 635
- Total
- 2,581
- vs nation
- R+28.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic42.8%1,272McCainRepublican55.0%1,634OtherAll other candidates2.2%64
R+12.2- Lead
- 362
- Total
- 2,970
- vs nation
- R+19.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic43.5%1,332BushRepublican55.6%1,700OtherAll other candidates0.9%27
R+12.0- Lead
- 368
- Total
- 3,059
- vs nation
- R+9.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic37.2%994BushRepublican60.3%1,613NaderGreen1.6%42
R+23.2- Lead
- 619
- Total
- 2,673
- vs nation
- R+23.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic47.3%1,092DoleRepublican41.1%950PerotReform11.5%265
D+6.1- Lead
- 142
- Total
- 2,311
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+49.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 7,7082024 5-year
- Population density
- 39 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 195 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $59,5312024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 95.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.0 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Bath County, KY · twin score 86.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 57.3%3,337 participants ÷ 5,828 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 39.4%–45.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,916 | 5,410 | 53.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,628 | 5,399 | 48.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,420 | 5,493 | 62.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,572 | 5,797 | 44.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,337 | 5,828 | 57.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Nicholas County, KY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
73.3%
1,742 votes · D+47.1
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · 68.7%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
73.8%
2,451 votes · R+49.0
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 70.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
2,953votes
65.7% of the vote · D+32.4
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 2,728 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
2,451votes
73.8% of the vote · R+49.0
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 2,408 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+58.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+32.4 · U.S. R+26.2
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +49.6 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+47.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+49.0 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +47.2 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+25.2
Presidential vote · 2024R+49.0
Nicholas County, KY registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 74-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
5,525 registered voters · 2024
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+179 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +639 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $40,514 in average income, against $51,908 for residents who stayed — 22% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+14.0 on average — 35 points more Democratic-leaning than Nicholas County, KY itself (R+49.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Bourbon County, KY33R+33.5
- Fayette County, KY20D+18.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Bourbon County, KY38
- Harrison County, KY23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −29 |
| 2012 | −78 |
| 2013 | +23 |
| 2014 | +40 |
| 2015 | +21 |
| 2016 | +32 |
| 2017 | +85 |
| 2018 | +44 |
| 2019 | +86 |
| 2021 | +220 |
| 2022 | +69 |
| 2023 | −84 |
| 2024 | +31 |
| 2025 | +179 |
Nicholas County sits in the Bluegrass region with a population under 7,000, and its lopsided recent presidential results reflect the broader rural realignment that has reshaped small Appalachian-adjacent counties over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 47.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 49.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 49.0 points.
A population of 7,708, a 96% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $59,531 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bath County and Montgomery County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Bath County
Kentucky
86.9twin score
American ancestrycollege share% White≠ 12-yr trend
Montgomery County
Kentucky
86.9twin score
American ancestryelasticity% Catholic≠ college share
Fleming County
Kentucky
86.6twin score
American ancestry12-yr trend% White
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Nicholas County, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/21181/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Nicholas County, Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Nicholas County, Kentucky voted Republican by 49.0 points (R+49.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,319 votes cast, 824 went Democratic and 2,451 went Republican.
When did Nicholas County, Kentucky last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Nicholas County, Kentucky voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Nicholas County, Kentucky?
Nicholas County, Kentucky has a population of 7,708 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Nicholas County, Kentucky?
Median household income in Nicholas County, Kentucky is $59,531 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Nicholas County, Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Nicholas County, Kentucky from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 11 went Republican.