HarrisDemocratic9.2%692TrumpRepublican89.5%6,729KennedyIndependent0.9%67
R+80.3- Lead
- 6,037
- Total
- 7,517
- vs nation
- R+78.8
- Turnout
- 48.3%
Akashiccounty
Clay County, KY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 48.3% of 15,680 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic10.9%831TrumpRepublican88.0%6,677JorgensenLibertarian0.5%40
R+77.0- Lead
- 5,846
- Total
- 7,591
- vs nation
- R+81.5
- Turnout
- 48.9%
ClintonDemocratic11.1%752TrumpRepublican86.6%5,861JohnsonLibertarian1.2%83
R+75.5- Lead
- 5,109
- Total
- 6,767
- vs nation
- R+77.6
- Turnout
- 41.5%
ObamaDemocratic15.0%1,111RomneyRepublican83.7%6,176OtherAll other candidates1.3%96
R+68.6- Lead
- 5,065
- Total
- 7,383
- vs nation
- R+72.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic21.1%1,552McCainRepublican77.5%5,710OtherAll other candidates1.4%102
R+56.5- Lead
- 4,158
- Total
- 7,364
- vs nation
- R+63.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic24.7%1,901BushRepublican74.5%5,726OtherAll other candidates0.8%60
R+49.8- Lead
- 3,825
- Total
- 7,687
- vs nation
- R+47.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic25.6%1,723BushRepublican73.3%4,926NaderGreen0.4%28
R+47.7- Lead
- 3,203
- Total
- 6,719
- vs nation
- R+48.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic33.4%2,135DoleRepublican58.1%3,716PerotReform7.5%478
R+24.7- Lead
- 1,581
- Total
- 6,401
- vs nation
- R+33.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+80.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 19,9212024 5-year
- Population density
- 42 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 469 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $40,9002024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Republican margin
- R+80.3 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carter County, TN · twin score 94.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 48.3%7,578 participants ÷ 15,680 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.3 ptsPersistently low turnout
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 31.0%–35.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 6,863 | 16,522 | 41.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 5,414 | 16,129 | 33.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 7,707 | 15,762 | 48.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 5,049 | 15,976 | 31.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 7,578 | 15,680 | 48.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Clay County, KY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
48.8%
3,098 votes · R+2.0
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 38.0%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
89.5%
6,729 votes · R+80.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 88.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
3,098votes
48.8% of the vote · R+2.0
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · 2,135 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
6,729votes
89.5% of the vote · R+80.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 6,677 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
George McGovern1972
−17.3pts D vs U.S.
Place R+40.4 · U.S. R+23.2
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · −24.6 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+81.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+77.0 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +78.8 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+72.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+80.3
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 8.3 points more Republican than the rolls.
14,155 registered voters · 2024
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+7 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,198 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $31,995 in average income, against $48,165 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+69.8 on average — 10 points more Democratic-leaning than Clay County, KY itself (R+80.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Laurel County, KY84R+69.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Laurel County, KY118
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −73 |
| 2012 | −103 |
| 2013 | −373 |
| 2014 | −168 |
| 2015 | −162 |
| 2016 | −314 |
| 2017 | −357 |
| 2018 | −173 |
| 2019 | −178 |
| 2021 | −28 |
| 2022 | −128 |
| 2023 | −142 |
| 2024 | −6 |
| 2025 | +7 |
A rural Appalachian county in southeastern Kentucky, Clay recorded an R+80.3 margin in 2024, placing it among the most lopsided presidential results in the state and reflecting a decades-long partisan realignment across the region.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 80.3 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 80.3 points.
A population of 19,921, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $40,900 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carter County and Russell County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Carter County
Tennessee
94.4twin score
2008–2016 trajectoryelasticity≠ median age
Russell County
Kentucky
94.4twin score
2000–2016 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Jackson County
Kentucky
94.4twin score
2012–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Clay County, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/21051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Kentucky at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Clay County, Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Clay County, Kentucky voted Republican by 80.3 points (R+80.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,517 votes cast, 692 went Democratic and 6,729 went Republican.
How many people live in Clay County, Kentucky?
Clay County, Kentucky has a population of 19,921 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Clay County, Kentucky?
Median household income in Clay County, Kentucky is $40,900 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Clay County, Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Clay County, Kentucky from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 34 went Republican.