Kentucky 5th Congressional District, Kentucky: Populist district. In 2024, voted R+64%. Republican peak: R+64 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+64MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 737,7992024 5-year
- Median household income
- $45,8392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 94.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+23 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Predecessors: CARTER, Tim Lee (1979–1981), CARTER, Tim Lee (1977–1979), CARTER, Tim Lee (1975–1977), CARTER, Tim Lee (1973–1975)
Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 54,700 | 256,107 | 314,854 | ||
| R | 63,829 | 256,968 | 324,991 | ||
| R | 55,316 | 235,575 | 299,948 | ||
| R | 69,380 | 207,479 | 281,822 | ||
| R | 92,811 | 185,764 | 283,584 | ||
| R | 121,953 | 182,607 | 306,819 | ||
| R | 114,470 | 150,531 | 269,269 | ||
| D | 116,172 | 103,568 | 243,929 | ||
| D | 134,347 | 113,507 | 279,963 | ||
| R | 121,399 | 134,409 | 257,407 | ||
| R | 115,661 | 152,140 | 269,339 | ||
| R | 127,491 | 132,553 | 264,360 | ||
| D | 123,468 | 109,672 | 234,928 | ||
| R | 77,710 | 139,688 | 219,290 | ||
| R | 86,280 | 107,503 | 219,152 | ||
| D | 136,132 | 85,582 | 222,471 | ||
| R | 106,564 | 144,934 | 251,499 | ||
| R | 99,095 | 150,027 | 249,590 | ||
| R | 111,872 | 128,156 | 240,445 | ||
| D | 107,739 | 97,194 | 206,420 | ||
| R | 96,439 | 111,762 | 208,617 | ||
| D | 123,783 | 119,400 | 243,619 | ||
| D | 116,966 | 112,784 | 230,117 | ||
| D | 124,656 | 114,992 | 240,664 | ||
| R | 68,484 | 139,475 | 208,226 | ||
| R | 63,590 | 100,315 | 172,742 | ||
| R | 64,836 | 115,403 | 181,340 | ||
| R | 42,549 | 63,771 | 107,547 | ||
| D | 34,365 | 29,657 | 86,545 | ||
| R | 34,767 | 58,077 | 94,387 | ||
| R | 30,305 | 47,505 | 79,175 | ||
| R | 33,375 | 49,754 | 83,643 | ||
| R | 29,571 | 44,406 | 75,205 | ||
| R | 24,475 | 28,239 | 55,060 | ||
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U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 38.2% | 61.8% | 1,477,830 |
| 2020 | R | 38.2% | 57.8% | 2,135,057 |
| 2016 | R | 42.7% | 57.3% | 1,903,465 |
| 2014 | R | 40.7% | 56.2% | 1,435,868 |
| 2010 | R | 44.2% | 55.7% | 1,356,096 |
| 2008 | R | 47.0% | 53.0% | 1,800,821 |
| 2004 | R | 49.3% | 50.7% | 1,724,362 |
| 2002 | R | 35.3% | 64.7% | 1,131,313 |
| 1998 | R | 49.2% | 49.7% | 1,145,414 |
| 1996 | R | 42.8% | 55.5% | 1,307,046 |
| 1992 | D | 62.9% | 35.8% | 1,330,858 |
| 1990 | R | 47.8% | 52.2% | 916,010 |
| 1986 | D | 74.4% | 25.6% | 677,280 |
| 1984 | R | 49.5% | 49.9% | 1,292,407 |
| 1980 | D | 65.1% | 34.9% | 1,106,920 |
| 1978 | D | 61.0% | 36.9% | 476,783 |
Demographics
Kentucky's 5th congressional district covers the eastern third of the state — most of the Cumberland Plateau, the Appalachian coalfields, and the Big Sandy valley. About 738,000 people live in the district. Hal Rogers has represented the seat since 1981, making him one of the longest-serving members of the House. Median household income across the district is among the lowest of any congressional district nationally; the share of working-age adults out of the labor force is among the highest. The district voted Democratic for president in every election from 1932 through 1996, narrowly favored George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 (R+20 in 2004), then shifted hard. Republican margins climbed to R+33 in 2008, R+49 in 2012, R+60 in 2016, R+59 in 2020, and R+64 in 2024 — making the district one of the most lopsidedly Republican in the country and the most Republican in Kentucky. Democratic vote totals fell from 121,954 in 2004 to 54,701 in 2024 even as turnout overall stayed roughly flat. The shift tracks closely with the collapse of underground coal employment in the region from the late 1990s onward.
The Democratic margin in Kentucky 5th Congressional District peaked at twenty-three points in 1964. By 2000 the district had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was sixty-four points, the most Republican-leaning result in the district's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $45,839 sits well below state and national norms, and 25% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
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Congressional District 5, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/2105/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.