HarrisDemocratic34.5%16,572TrumpRepublican63.8%30,672KennedyIndependent0.9%450
R+29.3- Lead
- 14,100
- Total
- 48,082
- vs nation
- R+27.9
- Turnout
- 58.9%
Akashiccounty
Hardin County, KY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.9% of 82,258 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic37.0%18,101TrumpRepublican61.0%29,832JorgensenLibertarian1.5%753
R+24.0- Lead
- 11,731
- Total
- 48,941
- vs nation
- R+28.4
- Turnout
- 60.3%
ClintonDemocratic32.3%13,944TrumpRepublican62.5%26,971JohnsonLibertarian3.3%1,413
R+30.2- Lead
- 13,027
- Total
- 43,156
- vs nation
- R+32.3
- Turnout
- 55.5%
ObamaDemocratic38.8%15,214RomneyRepublican59.6%23,357OtherAll other candidates1.6%647
R+20.8- Lead
- 8,143
- Total
- 39,218
- vs nation
- R+24.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic39.1%15,650McCainRepublican59.8%23,896OtherAll other candidates1.1%444
R+20.6- Lead
- 8,246
- Total
- 39,990
- vs nation
- R+27.9
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic31.6%11,507BushRepublican67.6%24,627OtherAll other candidates0.8%307
R+36.0- Lead
- 13,120
- Total
- 36,441
- vs nation
- R+33.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic36.2%11,095BushRepublican61.8%18,964NaderGreen1.4%437
R+25.6- Lead
- 7,869
- Total
- 30,690
- vs nation
- R+26.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic41.4%11,031DoleRepublican47.5%12,642PerotReform10.6%2,815
R+6.1- Lead
- 1,611
- Total
- 26,617
- vs nation
- R+14.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+29.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 111,9422024 5-year
- Median household income
- $67,6472024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+38.3 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Onslow County, NC · twin score 80.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.9%48,421 participants ÷ 82,258 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +22.2 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +2.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 36.7%–41.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 43,749 | 78,887 | 55.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 33,895 | 79,776 | 42.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 49,005 | 81,306 | 60.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 31,207 | 81,903 | 38.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 48,421 | 82,258 | 58.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
58 precincts · 48,082 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -D005D005 | 729 | 990 | 25 | 1,744 | 41.8% | 56.8% | R+15.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -H005H005 | 775 | 877 | 35 | 1,687 | 45.9% | 52.0% | R+6.0 |
| Precinct -D004D004 | 665 | 957 | 39 | 1,661 | 40.0% | 57.6% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -F003F003 | 408 | 1,084 | 14 | 1,506 | 27.1% | 72.0% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -H006H006 | 535 | 842 | 25 | 1,402 | 38.2% | 60.1% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct -C004C004 | 428 | 932 | 21 | 1,381 | 31.0% | 67.5% | R+36.5 |
| Precinct -G006G006 | 327 | 959 | 24 | 1,310 | 25.0% | 73.2% | R+48.2 |
| Precinct -D002D002 | 460 | 779 | 24 | 1,263 | 36.4% | 61.7% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct -G008G008 | 201 | 1,037 | 11 | 1,249 | 16.1% | 83.0% | R+66.9 |
| Precinct -B003B003 | 601 | 567 | 20 | 1,188 | 50.6% | 47.7% | D+2.9 |
| Precinct -F004F004 | 298 | 828 | 18 | 1,144 | 26.0% | 72.4% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct -C006C006 | 368 | 736 | 16 | 1,120 | 32.9% | 65.7% | R+32.9 |
| Precinct -H004H004 | 278 | 746 | 13 | 1,037 | 26.8% | 71.9% | R+45.1 |
| Precinct -E003E003 | 383 | 632 | 21 | 1,036 | 37.0% | 61.0% | R+24.0 |
| Precinct -H007H007 | 272 | 723 | 14 | 1,009 | 27.0% | 71.7% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct -F001F001 | 320 | 668 | 13 | 1,001 | 32.0% | 66.7% | R+34.8 |
| Precinct -C003C003 | 229 | 755 | 14 | 998 | 22.9% | 75.7% | R+52.7 |
| Precinct -D003D003 | 387 | 551 | 16 | 954 | 40.6% | 57.8% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -B002B002 | 466 | 446 | 21 | 933 | 49.9% | 47.8% | D+2.1 |
| Precinct -E005E005 | 356 | 515 | 15 | 886 | 40.2% | 58.1% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct -E007E007 | 415 | 443 | 15 | 873 | 47.5% | 50.7% | R+3.2 |
| Precinct -F005F005 | 201 | 663 | 4 | 868 | 23.2% | 76.4% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -F006F006 | 182 | 663 | 11 | 856 | 21.3% | 77.5% | R+56.2 |
| Precinct -F002F002 | 164 | 675 | 11 | 850 | 19.3% | 79.4% | R+60.1 |
| Precinct -G009G009 | 257 | 570 | 22 | 849 | 30.3% | 67.1% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct -C002C002 | 364 | 440 | 32 | 836 | 43.5% | 52.6% | R+9.1 |
| Precinct -B004B004 | 410 | 386 | 15 | 811 | 50.6% | 47.6% | D+3.0 |
| Precinct -A006A006 | 396 | 354 | 16 | 766 | 51.7% | 46.2% | D+5.5 |
| Precinct -G007G007 | 167 | 562 | 10 | 739 | 22.6% | 76.0% | R+53.5 |
| Precinct -A002A002 | 334 | 376 | 14 | 724 | 46.1% | 51.9% | R+5.8 |
| Precinct -A008A008 | 328 | 366 | 13 | 707 | 46.4% | 51.8% | R+5.4 |
| Precinct -C005C005 | 181 | 513 | 10 | 704 | 25.7% | 72.9% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct -A004A004 | 345 | 332 | 11 | 688 | 50.1% | 48.3% | D+1.9 |
| Precinct -B006B006 | 314 | 342 | 25 | 681 | 46.1% | 50.2% | R+4.1 |
| Precinct -G003G003 | 81 | 591 | 1 | 673 | 12.0% | 87.8% | R+75.8 |
| Precinct -C001C001 | 248 | 399 | 12 | 659 | 37.6% | 60.5% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct -G005G005 | 191 | 455 | 7 | 653 | 29.2% | 69.7% | R+40.4 |
| Precinct -A005A005 | 265 | 369 | 11 | 645 | 41.1% | 57.2% | R+16.1 |
| Precinct -G002G002 | 121 | 495 | 10 | 626 | 19.3% | 79.1% | R+59.7 |
| Precinct -C007C007 | 284 | 328 | 8 | 620 | 45.8% | 52.9% | R+7.1 |
| Precinct -B005B005 | 200 | 387 | 8 | 595 | 33.6% | 65.0% | R+31.4 |
| Precinct -H008H008 | 131 | 442 | 12 | 585 | 22.4% | 75.6% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -D006D006 | 212 | 336 | 9 | 557 | 38.1% | 60.3% | R+22.3 |
| Precinct -A009A009 | 257 | 287 | 12 | 556 | 46.2% | 51.6% | R+5.4 |
| Precinct -D001D001 | 208 | 335 | 11 | 554 | 37.5% | 60.5% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct -E006E006 | 173 | 358 | 16 | 547 | 31.6% | 65.4% | R+33.8 |
| Precinct -F007F007 | 106 | 426 | 15 | 547 | 19.4% | 77.9% | R+58.5 |
| Precinct -E004E004 | 183 | 346 | 12 | 541 | 33.8% | 64.0% | R+30.1 |
| Precinct -G004G004 | 98 | 430 | 6 | 534 | 18.4% | 80.5% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -H001H001 | 140 | 355 | 15 | 510 | 27.5% | 69.6% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -E001E001 | 228 | 267 | 13 | 508 | 44.9% | 52.6% | R+7.7 |
| Precinct -E002E002 | 223 | 270 | 14 | 507 | 44.0% | 53.3% | R+9.3 |
| Precinct -G001G001 | 82 | 410 | 10 | 502 | 16.3% | 81.7% | R+65.3 |
| Precinct -B001B001 | 163 | 288 | 9 | 460 | 35.4% | 62.6% | R+27.2 |
| Precinct -A001A001 | 94 | 316 | 10 | 420 | 22.4% | 75.2% | R+52.9 |
| Precinct -A003A003 | 181 | 210 | 7 | 398 | 45.5% | 52.8% | R+7.3 |
| Precinct -A007A007 | 134 | 207 | 2 | 343 | 39.1% | 60.3% | R+21.3 |
| Precinct -A010A010 | 25 | 56 | 0 | 81 | 30.9% | 69.1% | R+38.3 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +23.7% |
| 1896 | +19.8% |
| 1900 | +19.3% |
| 1904 | +23.0% |
| 1908 | +22.0% |
| 1912 | +43.8% |
| 1916 | +26.7% |
| 1920 | +23.3% |
| 1924 | +21.7% |
| 1928 | −18.0% |
| 1932 | +36.4% |
| 1936 | +32.2% |
| 1940 | +33.4% |
| 1944 | +22.0% |
| 1948 | +26.3% |
| 1952 | +8.0% |
| 1956 | −7.7% |
| 1960 | −9.3% |
| 1964 | +33.0% |
| 1968 | −6.7% |
| 1972 | −35.3% |
| 1976 | +6.7% |
| 1980 | −7.7% |
| 1984 | −38.3% |
| 1988 | −29.0% |
| 1992 | −11.1% |
| 1996 | −6.1% |
| 2000 | −25.6% |
| 2004 | −36.0% |
| 2008 | −20.6% |
| 2012 | −20.8% |
| 2016 | −30.2% |
| 2020 | −24.0% |
| 2024 | −29.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 36 Senate · 4 Senate special · 10 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+5.6
Presidential vote · 2024R+29.3
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 24 points more Democratic.
89,373 registered voters · 2024
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+460 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,459 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $53,639 in average income, against $71,583 for residents who stayed — 25% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+23.6 on average — 5.7 points more Democratic-leaning than Hardin County, KY itself (R+29.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jefferson County, KY468D+16.5
- Meade County, KY237R+52.0
- Bullitt County, KY138R+51.0
- Larue County, KY132R+60.4
- Grayson County, KY84R+61.8
- Nelson County, KY71R+41.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Jefferson County, KY468
- Meade County, KY255
- Larue County, KY177
- Bullitt County, KY118
- Grayson County, KY104
- Nelson County, KY99
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −512 |
| 2012 | −466 |
| 2013 | −383 |
| 2014 | −1,526 |
| 2015 | −3,150 |
| 2016 | +9 |
| 2017 | +574 |
| 2018 | +1,579 |
| 2019 | +271 |
| 2021 | +756 |
| 2022 | −121 |
| 2023 | +169 |
| 2024 | −119 |
| 2025 | +460 |
Home to Fort Knox and one of Kentucky's larger non-metro populations, Hardin County combines a substantial military-connected workforce with rural surrounding communities, producing consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent federal elections.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 38.3 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 29.3 points.
A population of 111,942, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,647 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Onslow County and Washington County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Onslow County
North Carolina
80.5twin score
elasticity2004 marginpopulation scale≠ median age
Washington County
Maryland
78.1twin score
elasticitypopulation scale12-yr trend
Elkhart County
Indiana
76.7twin score
2004 marginpopulation scalemedian age≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hardin County, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/21093/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Hardin County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Hardin County, Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hardin County, Kentucky voted Republican by 29.3 points (R+29.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 48,082 votes cast, 16,572 went Democratic and 30,672 went Republican.
When did Hardin County, Kentucky last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Hardin County, Kentucky voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Hardin County, Kentucky?
Hardin County, Kentucky has a population of 111,942 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hardin County, Kentucky?
Median household income in Hardin County, Kentucky is $67,647 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Hardin County, Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Hardin County, Kentucky from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.