| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 3,048 | 10,491 | 13,692 | |
| 2020 | R | 3,545 | 10,497 | 14,235 | |
| 2016 | R | 3,272 | 9,393 | 13,060 | |
| 2012 | R | 4,771 | 7,762 | 12,739 | |
| 2008 | R | 6,221 | 6,447 | 12,889 | |
| 2004 | R | 6,636 | 6,749 | 13,479 | |
| 2000 | D | 6,295 | 5,518 | 11,956 | |
| 1996 | D | 6,564 | 3,569 | 11,386 | |
| 1992 | D | 7,901 | 3,551 | 13,114 | |
| 1988 | D | 6,912 | 5,369 | 12,322 | |
| 1984 | D | 6,157 | 6,094 | 12,277 | |
| 1980 | D | 6,616 | 4,893 | 11,706 | |
| 1976 | D | 7,058 | 4,292 | 11,449 | |
| 1972 | R | 3,246 | 5,596 | 8,978 | |
| 1968 | R | 3,688 | 3,853 | 9,750 | |
| 1964 | D | 6,421 | 3,300 | 9,741 | |
| 1960 | R | 4,427 | 5,968 | 10,395 | |
| 1956 | R | 4,752 | 5,323 | 10,113 | |
| 1952 | D | 5,037 | 4,761 | 9,812 | |
| 1948 | D | 4,426 | 3,478 | 8,031 | |
| 1944 | R | 3,657 | 4,618 | 8,304 | |
| 1940 | R | 5,140 | 5,332 | 10,500 | |
| 1936 | D | 6,385 | 4,168 | 10,628 | |
| 1932 | D | 7,162 | 4,349 | 11,630 | |
| 1928 | R | 5,130 | 6,651 | 11,830 | |
| 1924 | R | 4,379 | 5,210 | 10,471 | |
| 1920 | R | 4,824 | 6,667 | 11,753 | |
| 1916 | R | 2,900 | 3,533 | 6,601 | |
| 1912 | D | 2,093 | 1,038 | 5,596 | |
| 1908 | R | 2,740 | 3,063 | 5,962 | |
| 1904 | R | 1,954 | 2,476 | 4,555 | |
| 1900 | R | 1,857 | 2,493 | 4,409 | |
| 1896 | R | 1,700 | 2,217 | 4,016 | |
| 1892 | R | 1,421 | 1,688 | 3,389 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Muhlenberg County's political identity shifted sharply as its coal industry declined over recent decades. In 2024 it delivered an R+54.4 presidential margin, reflecting a broader realignment across western Kentucky's former mining belt.
The 2004 election was the turning point, when the Republican candidate carried the county by one points. The 2024 margin was fifty-four points, in line with the county's new direction.
The demographics suggest why. A population of 30,591, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $51,927 situate the county in the broader realignment patterns of recent cycles. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Perry County and Dickenson County.
