HarrisDemocratic21.8%5,440TrumpRepublican76.9%19,174KennedyIndependent0.8%189
R+55.1- Lead
- 13,734
- Total
- 24,932
- vs nation
- R+53.6
- Turnout
- 56.3%
Akashiccounty
Coffee County, TN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 56.3% of 44,585 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic23.5%5,705TrumpRepublican73.6%17,883JorgensenLibertarian1.0%242
R+50.2- Lead
- 12,178
- Total
- 24,282
- vs nation
- R+54.6
- Turnout
- 58.5%
ClintonDemocratic23.7%4,743TrumpRepublican72.2%14,417JohnsonLibertarian2.6%517
R+48.4- Lead
- 9,674
- Total
- 19,971
- vs nation
- R+50.5
- Turnout
- 50.5%
ObamaDemocratic30.5%5,870RomneyRepublican67.6%13,023OtherAll other candidates1.9%366
R+37.1- Lead
- 7,153
- Total
- 19,259
- vs nation
- R+41.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic34.3%7,132McCainRepublican63.7%13,250OtherAll other candidates2.0%408
R+29.4- Lead
- 6,118
- Total
- 20,790
- vs nation
- R+36.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic40.9%8,243BushRepublican58.5%11,793OtherAll other candidates0.6%131
R+17.6- Lead
- 3,550
- Total
- 20,167
- vs nation
- R+15.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic49.1%8,741BushRepublican49.4%8,788NaderGreen0.8%151
R+0.3- Lead
- 47
- Total
- 17,788
- vs nation
- R+0.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic48.8%7,951DoleRepublican43.2%7,038PerotReform7.4%1,205
D+5.6- Lead
- 913
- Total
- 16,301
- vs nation
- R+2.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+55.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 59,7102024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,5052024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+68.3 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Greene County, AR · twin score 93.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 56.3%25,101 participants ÷ 44,585 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +26.7 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 29.6%–38.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 20,172 | 39,952 | 50.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 17,151 | 40,460 | 42.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 24,386 | 41,655 | 58.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 13,751 | 43,141 | 31.9% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 25,101 | 44,585 | 56.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
16 precincts · 24,932 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -2-1 Trinity Baptist Church2-1 Trinity Baptist Church | 750 | 2,047 | 41 | 2,838 | 26.4% | 72.1% | R+45.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -3-1 Coffee County Rescue Squad3-1 Coffee County Rescue Squad | 373 | 1,679 | 34 | 2,086 | 17.9% | 80.5% | R+62.6 |
| Precinct -1-1 First Baptist Church1-1 First Baptist Church | 533 | 1,492 | 36 | 2,061 | 25.9% | 72.4% | R+46.5 |
| Precinct -8-2 Grace Baptist Church8-2 Grace Baptist Church | 570 | 1,458 | 23 | 2,051 | 27.8% | 71.1% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -5-1 Hickerson Station Fire Hall5-1 Hickerson Station Fire Hall | 331 | 1,623 | 29 | 1,983 | 16.7% | 81.8% | R+65.2 |
| Precinct -4-1 New Union Church of Christ4-1 New Union Church of Christ | 293 | 1,544 | 19 | 1,856 | 15.8% | 83.2% | R+67.4 |
| Precinct -5-2 Blanton's Chapel Community Center5-2 Blanton's Chapel Community Center | 288 | 1,416 | 14 | 1,718 | 16.8% | 82.4% | R+65.7 |
| Precinct -6-1 Conference Center6-1 Conference Center | 264 | 1,310 | 18 | 1,592 | 16.6% | 82.3% | R+65.7 |
| Precinct -6-2 Hillsboro Community Center6-2 Hillsboro Community Center | 244 | 1,249 | 11 | 1,504 | 16.2% | 83.0% | R+66.8 |
| Precinct -9-1 D.W. Wilson Community Center9-1 D.W. Wilson Community Center | 455 | 1,029 | 10 | 1,494 | 30.5% | 68.9% | R+38.4 |
| Precinct -4-2 Forest Mill Church of Christ4-2 Forest Mill Church of Christ | 215 | 1,155 | 28 | 1,398 | 15.4% | 82.6% | R+67.2 |
| Precinct -8-1 Lion's Club8-1 Lion's Club | 313 | 865 | 19 | 1,197 | 26.1% | 72.3% | R+46.1 |
| Precinct -3-2 Lakewood Baptist Church3-2 Lakewood Baptist Church | 196 | 959 | 14 | 1,169 | 16.8% | 82.0% | R+65.3 |
| Precinct -7-1 CD Stamps7-1 CD Stamps | 357 | 763 | 10 | 1,130 | 31.6% | 67.5% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -7-2 Wesley Heights Methodist Church7-2 Wesley Heights Methodist Church | 258 | 585 | 12 | 855 | 30.2% | 68.4% | R+38.2 |
| Precinct -9-2 and 9-4 Cedar Lane Church of Christ9-2 and 9-4 Cedar Lane Church of Christ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +45.4% |
| 1896 | +48.0% |
| 1900 | +43.9% |
| 1904 | +44.7% |
| 1908 | +42.5% |
| 1912 | +51.1% |
| 1916 | +57.5% |
| 1920 | +42.6% |
| 1924 | +53.7% |
| 1928 | +2.1% |
| 1932 | +63.3% |
| 1936 | +67.7% |
| 1940 | +68.3% |
| 1944 | +65.2% |
| 1948 | +40.0% |
| 1952 | +25.2% |
| 1956 | +34.5% |
| 1960 | +19.5% |
| 1964 | +38.8% |
| 1968 | −2.7% |
| 1972 | −35.5% |
| 1976 | +34.7% |
| 1980 | +16.1% |
| 1984 | −14.9% |
| 1988 | −15.8% |
| 1992 | +14.6% |
| 1996 | +5.6% |
| 2000 | −0.3% |
| 2004 | −17.6% |
| 2008 | −29.4% |
| 2012 | −37.1% |
| 2016 | −48.4% |
| 2020 | −50.2% |
| 2024 | −55.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 11 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 22.0%5,086 | 78.0%18,037 | 23,123 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 32,656 |
| 2018 | 31,630 |
| 2020 | 34,762 |
| 2022 | 35,848 |
| 2024 | 38,150 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+918 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +8,128 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,914 in average income, against $68,883 for residents who stayed — 20% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+39.2 on average — 16 points more Democratic-leaning than Coffee County, TN itself (R+55.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Rutherford County, TN444R+21.8
- Franklin County, TN268R+53.2
- Bedford County, TN154R+58.0
- Warren County, TN92R+56.1
- Davidson County, TN69D+27.4
- Moore County, TN62R+68.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Franklin County, TN277
- Rutherford County, TN229
- Bedford County, TN125
- Warren County, TN89
- Davidson County, TN69
- Moore County, TN64
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +139 |
| 2012 | +250 |
| 2013 | +171 |
| 2014 | +242 |
| 2015 | +510 |
| 2016 | +474 |
| 2017 | +527 |
| 2018 | +862 |
| 2019 | +623 |
| 2021 | +965 |
| 2022 | +834 |
| 2023 | +852 |
| 2024 | +761 |
| 2025 | +918 |
Coffee County sits on the Highland Rim southeast of Nashville, anchored by Manchester, and has shifted from a competitive rural Democrat stronghold in the 1990s to one of Tennessee's most lopsided Republican counties, posting a 55-point margin in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 68.3 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 55.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 55.1 points.
A population of 59,710, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,505 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Greene County and Jackson County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Greene County
Arkansas
93.5twin score
2000–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Jackson County
Alabama
92.1twin score
2000–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Lawrence County
Tennessee
91.4twin score
elasticity2008–2024 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Coffee County, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/47031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Coffee County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Coffee County, Tennessee vote in 2024?
In 2024, Coffee County, Tennessee voted Republican by 55.1 points (R+55.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 24,932 votes cast, 5,440 went Democratic and 19,174 went Republican.
When did Coffee County, Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Coffee County, Tennessee voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Coffee County, Tennessee?
Coffee County, Tennessee has a population of 59,710 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Coffee County, Tennessee?
Median household income in Coffee County, Tennessee is $61,505 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Coffee County, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Coffee County, Tennessee from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 10 went Republican.