- Lead
- 9,662
- Total
- 14,444
- vs nation
- R+65.4
- Turnout
- 55.9%
Rhea County, TN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 55.9% of 26,035 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 8,681
- Total
- 13,637
- vs nation
- R+68.1
- Turnout
- 55.3%
- Lead
- 6,718
- Total
- 11,062
- vs nation
- R+62.8
- Turnout
- 46.0%
- Lead
- 5,174
- Total
- 10,590
- vs nation
- R+52.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,135
- Total
- 11,106
- vs nation
- R+53.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,636
- Total
- 11,054
- vs nation
- R+30.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,178
- Total
- 9,772
- vs nation
- R+22.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 507
- Total
- 9,188
- vs nation
- R+14.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+66.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 33,9922024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,0332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Tishomingo County, MS · twin score 97.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 55.9%14,542 participants ÷ 26,035 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +24.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 31.3%–40.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 11,290 | 24,542 | 46.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 9,530 | 24,422 | 39.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 13,738 | 24,834 | 55.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,744 | 25,146 | 30.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 14,542 | 26,035 | 55.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 14,444 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Frazier/Grace Bible ChurchFrazier/Grace Bible Church | 261 | 1,592 | 22 | 1,875 | 13.9% | 84.9% | R+71.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Garrison/Garrison Baptist ChurchGarrison/Garrison Baptist Church | 326 | 1,511 | 16 | 1,853 | 17.6% | 81.5% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -Evensville South/Sheriff Training CenterEvensville South/Sheriff Training Center | 230 | 1,329 | 12 | 1,571 | 14.6% | 84.6% | R+70.0 |
| Precinct -Spring City South/City HallSpring City South/City Hall | 295 | 1,250 | 12 | 1,557 | 18.9% | 80.3% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -1-1 Spring City North Penecostal Worship Center1-1 Spring City North Penecostal Worship Center | 263 | 1,214 | 14 | 1,491 | 17.6% | 81.4% | R+63.8 |
| Precinct -Dayton North/Welcome CenterDayton North/Welcome Center | 221 | 956 | 27 | 1,204 | 18.4% | 79.4% | R+61.0 |
| Precinct -Dayton West/Family Worship CenterDayton West/Family Worship Center | 230 | 882 | 16 | 1,128 | 20.4% | 78.2% | R+57.8 |
| Precinct -3-2 Evensville North/Sheriff Training Center3-2 Evensville North/Sheriff Training Center | 118 | 833 | 6 | 957 | 12.3% | 87.0% | R+74.7 |
| Precinct -3-1 Wolf Creek/Wolf Creek Baptist Church3-1 Wolf Creek/Wolf Creek Baptist Church | 114 | 830 | 9 | 953 | 12.0% | 87.1% | R+75.1 |
| Precinct -9-2 Walden's Ridge/Community Center9-2 Walden's Ridge/Community Center | 100 | 725 | 11 | 836 | 12.0% | 86.7% | R+74.8 |
| Precinct -9-1 Graysville/City Hall9-1 Graysville/City Hall | 96 | 426 | 8 | 530 | 18.1% | 80.4% | R+62.3 |
| Precinct -1-2 Grandview/Grandview Community Center1-2 Grandview/Grandview Community Center | 58 | 426 | 5 | 489 | 11.9% | 87.1% | R+75.3 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −2.7% |
| 1896 | −8.0% |
| 1900 | −2.0% |
| 1904 | −4.7% |
| 1908 | −5.9% |
| 1912 | +28.8% |
| 1916 | −7.3% |
| 1920 | −12.0% |
| 1924 | +0.0% |
| 1928 | −30.6% |
| 1932 | +3.4% |
| 1936 | +5.6% |
| 1940 | +9.4% |
| 1944 | −8.6% |
| 1948 | −4.3% |
| 1952 | −9.3% |
| 1956 | −13.0% |
| 1960 | −21.1% |
| 1964 | −1.7% |
| 1968 | −18.9% |
| 1972 | −47.7% |
| 1976 | +3.9% |
| 1980 | −20.5% |
| 1984 | −33.6% |
| 1988 | −32.8% |
| 1992 | −5.5% |
| 1996 | −5.5% |
| 2000 | −22.3% |
| 2004 | −32.9% |
| 2008 | −46.2% |
| 2012 | −48.9% |
| 2016 | −60.7% |
| 2020 | −63.7% |
| 2024 | −66.9% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 15.4%2,082 | 84.6%11,457 | 13,539 |
| 2020 | R | 20.6%2,620 | 79.4%10,089 | 12,709 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 20,025 |
| 2018 | 18,825 |
| 2020 | 20,843 |
| 2022 | 20,848 |
| 2024 | 22,363 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+273 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +3,329 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,121 in average income, against $65,712 for residents who stayed — 5% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+40.7 on average — 26 points more Democratic-leaning than Rhea County, TN itself (R+66.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Hamilton County, TN171R+13.0
- Bledsoe County, TN52R+70.5
- McMinn County, TN39R+64.2
- Meigs County, TN39R+67.5
- Bradley County, TN38R+58.9
- Roane County, TN37R+54.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Hamilton County, TN179
- Bledsoe County, TN51
- Meigs County, TN41
- Bradley County, TN37
- Cumberland County, TN32
- Roane County, TN32
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +173 |
| 2012 | +240 |
| 2013 | +107 |
| 2014 | +75 |
| 2015 | −227 |
| 2016 | +115 |
| 2017 | +190 |
| 2018 | +228 |
| 2019 | +263 |
| 2021 | +392 |
| 2022 | +628 |
| 2023 | +363 |
| 2024 | +509 |
| 2025 | +273 |
Rhea County, nestled in the Cumberland Plateau, recorded a 66.9-point Republican margin in 2024, reflecting a rural Appalachian electorate that has swung sharply rightward over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 28.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 66.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.9 points.
A population of 33,992, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,033 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Tishomingo County and Wayne County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Rhea County, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/47143/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.