| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 56,656 | 88,811 | 148,201 | |
| 2020 | R | 59,341 | 81,480 | 143,878 | |
| 2016 | R | 36,706 | 64,515 | 107,436 | |
| 2012 | R | 36,414 | 60,846 | 98,848 | |
| 2008 | R | 40,460 | 59,892 | 101,737 | |
| 2004 | R | 31,647 | 52,200 | 84,409 | |
| 2000 | R | 27,360 | 33,445 | 62,182 | |
| 1996 | R | 22,815 | 24,565 | 51,594 | |
| 1992 | D | 21,084 | 18,877 | 47,140 | |
| 1988 | R | 12,245 | 20,397 | 32,801 | |
| 1984 | R | 11,618 | 19,503 | 31,469 | |
| 1980 | D | 15,213 | 11,208 | 27,350 | |
| 1976 | D | 14,854 | 7,921 | 23,082 | |
| 1972 | R | 5,811 | 11,256 | 17,554 | |
| 1968 | D | 4,921 | 4,168 | 16,862 | |
| 1964 | D | 9,580 | 4,088 | 13,668 | |
| 1960 | D | 6,410 | 4,526 | 11,052 | |
| 1956 | D | 6,494 | 2,713 | 9,306 | |
| 1952 | D | 6,793 | 3,196 | 10,061 | |
| 1948 | D | 4,151 | 854 | 6,078 | |
| 1944 | D | 4,730 | 879 | 5,638 | |
| 1940 | D | 4,207 | 782 | 5,009 | |
| 1936 | D | 4,101 | 580 | 4,710 | |
| 1932 | D | 3,924 | 606 | 4,550 | |
| 1928 | D | 2,115 | 1,429 | 3,544 | |
| 1924 | D | 2,137 | 680 | 2,849 | |
| 1920 | D | 3,406 | 1,881 | 5,287 | |
| 1916 | D | 2,941 | 1,116 | 4,057 | |
| 1912 | D | 3,406 | 1,217 | 4,967 | |
| 1908 | D | 2,764 | 1,226 | 3,990 | |
| 1904 | D | 2,504 | 1,348 | 3,889 | |
| 1900 | D | 2,517 | 1,429 | 4,041 | |
| 1896 | D | 3,352 | 2,203 | 5,637 | |
| 1892 | D | 2,211 | 1,210 | 4,056 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Rutherford County's population has surged past 180,000 as exurban sprawl extends southeast from Nashville, making it one of Tennessee's most consequential swing-to-solid counties — Republican presidential margins have widened even as the newcomer population diversifies.
The shift began with civil rights. 1996 marked the realignment in Rutherford County, by a three points margin. The Republican margin reached its widest at thirty-one points in 1972. The 2024 margin was twenty-two points.
The political shift has tracked, in Rutherford County, the political shift of the South more broadly. A 66% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $85,470, and a 9% poverty rate describe the demographic context. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Knox County and Sebastian County.