HarrisDemocratic21.4%3,647TrumpRepublican77.5%13,192KennedyIndependent0.6%102
R+56.1- Lead
- 9,545
- Total
- 17,015
- vs nation
- R+54.6
- Turnout
- 55.0%
Akashiccounty
Warren County, TN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 55.0% of 31,129 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic24.5%3,924TrumpRepublican74.0%11,850JorgensenLibertarian0.7%119
R+49.5- Lead
- 7,926
- Total
- 16,009
- vs nation
- R+54.0
- Turnout
- 54.1%
ClintonDemocratic26.0%3,535TrumpRepublican70.1%9,540JohnsonLibertarian2.5%339
R+44.1- Lead
- 6,005
- Total
- 13,612
- vs nation
- R+46.2
- Turnout
- 47.5%
ObamaDemocratic36.5%4,752RomneyRepublican61.5%8,010OtherAll other candidates1.9%253
R+25.0- Lead
- 3,258
- Total
- 13,015
- vs nation
- R+28.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic38.3%5,515McCainRepublican59.5%8,562OtherAll other candidates2.2%323
R+21.2- Lead
- 3,047
- Total
- 14,400
- vs nation
- R+28.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic47.3%6,808BushRepublican52.1%7,503OtherAll other candidates0.6%89
R+4.8- Lead
- 695
- Total
- 14,400
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic56.2%7,378BushRepublican42.3%5,552NaderGreen0.8%105
D+13.9- Lead
- 1,826
- Total
- 13,131
- vs nation
- D+13.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic54.9%6,389DoleRepublican36.3%4,226PerotReform7.9%917
D+18.6- Lead
- 2,163
- Total
- 11,633
- vs nation
- D+10.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+56.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,1662024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,4872024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+69.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Clay County, AR · twin score 92.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 55.0%17,129 participants ÷ 31,129 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +24.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 30.8%–38.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 13,844 | 29,143 | 47.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 11,574 | 29,391 | 39.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 16,110 | 29,766 | 54.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 8,958 | 30,013 | 29.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 17,129 | 31,129 | 55.0% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
20 precincts · 17,015 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -07-1 - Friendship The Baptist Church07-1 - Friendship The Baptist Church | 307 | 1,223 | 16 | 1,546 | 19.9% | 79.1% | R+59.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -01-1 Christ Community Church01-1 Christ Community Church | 415 | 827 | 14 | 1,256 | 33.0% | 65.8% | R+32.8 |
| Precinct -08-1 Shellsford Baptist Church08-1 Shellsford Baptist Church | 225 | 1,002 | 16 | 1,243 | 18.1% | 80.6% | R+62.5 |
| Precinct -09-1 Morrison Ruritan Club09-1 Morrison Ruritan Club | 242 | 957 | 19 | 1,218 | 19.9% | 78.6% | R+58.7 |
| Precinct -04-1 TSU Nursery Res. Center04-1 TSU Nursery Res. Center | 272 | 799 | 9 | 1,080 | 25.2% | 74.0% | R+48.8 |
| Precinct -11-2 HWY 56 N Church of Christ11-2 HWY 56 N Church of Christ | 179 | 873 | 9 | 1,061 | 16.9% | 82.3% | R+65.4 |
| Precinct -06-1 Redemption Center06-1 Redemption Center | 262 | 753 | 7 | 1,022 | 25.6% | 73.7% | R+48.0 |
| Precinct -03-2 Smartt First Baptist Church03-2 Smartt First Baptist Church | 190 | 778 | 8 | 976 | 19.5% | 79.7% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -02-1 Courthouse02-1 Courthouse | 224 | 658 | 13 | 895 | 25.0% | 73.5% | R+48.5 |
| Precinct -10-1 Centertown United Methodist Church10-1 Centertown United Methodist Church | 174 | 667 | 5 | 846 | 20.6% | 78.8% | R+58.3 |
| Precinct -02-2 Warren County Airport02-2 Warren County Airport | 142 | 654 | 8 | 804 | 17.7% | 81.3% | R+63.7 |
| Precinct -05-1 Three Star Mall05-1 Three Star Mall | 192 | 541 | 9 | 742 | 25.9% | 72.9% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct -10-2 Centertown Community Center10-2 Centertown Community Center | 123 | 599 | 4 | 726 | 16.9% | 82.5% | R+65.6 |
| Precinct -12-2 Lucky Community Center12-2 Lucky Community Center | 132 | 531 | 7 | 670 | 19.7% | 79.3% | R+59.6 |
| Precinct -12-1 Highway Department12-1 Highway Department | 113 | 514 | 9 | 636 | 17.8% | 80.8% | R+63.1 |
| Precinct -03-1 Westwood Church of Christ03-1 Westwood Church of Christ | 131 | 496 | 7 | 634 | 20.7% | 78.2% | R+57.6 |
| Precinct -08-3 Bonner Church of Christ08-3 Bonner Church of Christ | 86 | 397 | 3 | 486 | 17.7% | 81.7% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -11-1 Midway Community Center11-1 Midway Community Center | 73 | 360 | 5 | 438 | 16.7% | 82.2% | R+65.5 |
| Precinct -09-2 Viola Valley Community Center09-2 Viola Valley Community Center | 69 | 329 | 5 | 403 | 17.1% | 81.6% | R+64.5 |
| Precinct -05-2 Chamber of Commerce05-2 Chamber of Commerce | 96 | 234 | 3 | 333 | 28.8% | 70.3% | R+41.4 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +35.8% |
| 1896 | +41.9% |
| 1900 | +48.3% |
| 1904 | +42.6% |
| 1908 | +36.2% |
| 1912 | +59.8% |
| 1916 | +49.3% |
| 1920 | +32.4% |
| 1924 | +46.2% |
| 1928 | +9.2% |
| 1932 | +69.3% |
| 1936 | +61.0% |
| 1940 | +61.6% |
| 1944 | +49.9% |
| 1948 | +48.4% |
| 1952 | +30.0% |
| 1956 | +34.3% |
| 1960 | +7.5% |
| 1964 | +48.3% |
| 1968 | +2.4% |
| 1972 | −24.6% |
| 1976 | +47.2% |
| 1980 | +23.6% |
| 1984 | +0.0% |
| 1988 | +1.3% |
| 1992 | +28.2% |
| 1996 | +18.6% |
| 2000 | +13.9% |
| 2004 | −4.8% |
| 2008 | −21.2% |
| 2012 | −25.0% |
| 2016 | −44.1% |
| 2020 | −49.5% |
| 2024 | −56.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 11 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 22.3%3,280 | 77.7%11,413 | 14,693 |
| 2020 | R | 29.2%4,292 | 70.8%10,400 | 14,692 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 21,953 |
| 2018 | 21,773 |
| 2020 | 22,911 |
| 2022 | 23,915 |
| 2024 | 25,486 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+218 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,944 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,210 in average income, against $59,980 for residents who stayed — 4% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+38.3 on average — 18 points more Democratic-leaning than Warren County, TN itself (R+56.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Rutherford County, TN167R+21.8
- Coffee County, TN89R+55.1
- DeKalb County, TN57R+62.7
- Davidson County, TN50D+27.4
- Cannon County, TN47R+66.1
- White County, TN34R+66.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Rutherford County, TN107
- Coffee County, TN92
- DeKalb County, TN55
- Cannon County, TN49
- White County, TN47
- Putnam County, TN44
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +36 |
| 2012 | −167 |
| 2013 | +55 |
| 2014 | +59 |
| 2015 | +264 |
| 2016 | +174 |
| 2017 | +242 |
| 2018 | +124 |
| 2019 | +413 |
| 2021 | +558 |
| 2022 | +510 |
| 2023 | +566 |
| 2024 | +892 |
| 2025 | +218 |
Warren County sits on Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau and has shifted steadily toward lopsided Republican margins in federal races, with Donald Trump carrying it by 56 points in 2024 — among the wider gaps in a state already dominated by one party at the top of the ticket.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 56.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 56.1 points.
A population of 42,166, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,487 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Clay County and Franklin County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Clay County
Arkansas
92.5twin score
elasticity12-yr trend2000 margin≠ American ancestry
Franklin County
Tennessee
92.3twin score
elasticity2000–2024 trajectory12-yr trend
Cannon County
Tennessee
92.1twin score
2000–2024 trajectory12-yr trendelasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Warren County, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/47177/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Warren County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Warren County, Tennessee vote in 2024?
In 2024, Warren County, Tennessee voted Republican by 56.1 points (R+56.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 17,015 votes cast, 3,647 went Democratic and 13,192 went Republican.
When did Warren County, Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Warren County, Tennessee voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in Warren County, Tennessee?
Warren County, Tennessee has a population of 42,166 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Warren County, Tennessee?
Median household income in Warren County, Tennessee is $55,487 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Warren County, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warren County, Tennessee from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 26 went Democratic and 7 went Republican.