HarrisDemocratic21.4%3,647TrumpRepublican77.5%13,192KennedyIndependent0.6%102
R+56.1- Lead
- 9,545
- Total
- 17,015
- vs nation
- R+54.6
Akashicmetro area
McMinnville, TN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
1 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic24.5%3,924TrumpRepublican74.0%11,850OtherAll other candidates1.5%235
R+49.5- Lead
- 7,926
- Total
- 16,009
- vs nation
- R+54.0
ClintonDemocratic26.0%3,535TrumpRepublican70.1%9,540OtherAll other candidates3.9%537
R+44.1- Lead
- 6,005
- Total
- 13,612
- vs nation
- R+46.2
ObamaDemocratic36.5%4,752RomneyRepublican61.5%8,010OtherAll other candidates1.9%253
R+25.0- Lead
- 3,258
- Total
- 13,015
- vs nation
- R+28.9
ObamaDemocratic38.3%5,515McCainRepublican59.5%8,562OtherAll other candidates2.2%323
R+21.2- Lead
- 3,047
- Total
- 14,400
- vs nation
- R+28.4
KerryDemocratic47.3%6,808BushRepublican52.1%7,503OtherAll other candidates0.6%89
R+4.8- Lead
- 695
- Total
- 14,400
- vs nation
- R+2.4
GoreDemocratic56.2%7,378BushRepublican42.3%5,552OtherAll other candidates1.5%201
D+13.9- Lead
- 1,826
- Total
- 13,131
- vs nation
- D+13.4
ClintonDemocratic54.9%6,389DoleRepublican36.3%4,226OtherAll other candidates8.8%1,018
D+18.6- Lead
- 2,163
- Total
- 11,633
- vs nation
- D+10.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+56.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,1662024 5-year
- Population density
- 97 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 433 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $55,4872024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+69.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Winchester, TN · twin score 94.6
presidential history
Party record book
McMinnville, TN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
84.1%
2,325 votes · D+69.3
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 80.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
77.5%
13,192 votes · R+56.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 74.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
7,378votes
56.2% of the vote · D+13.9
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 7,189 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
13,192votes
77.5% of the vote · R+56.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 11,850 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+71.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+46.2 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +62.3 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+54.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+56.1 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +54.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 22.3%3,280 | 77.7%11,413 | 14,693 |
| 2020 | R | 29.2%4,292 | 70.8%10,400 | 14,692 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 21,953 |
| 2018 | 21,773 |
| 2020 | 22,911 |
| 2022 | 23,915 |
| 2024 | 25,486 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+218 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,944 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +36 |
| 2012 | −167 |
| 2013 | +55 |
| 2014 | +59 |
| 2015 | +264 |
| 2016 | +174 |
| 2017 | +242 |
| 2018 | +124 |
| 2019 | +413 |
| 2021 | +558 |
| 2022 | +510 |
| 2023 | +566 |
| 2024 | +892 |
| 2025 | +218 |
McMinnville anchors Warren County, a persistently Republican-leaning corner of the Cumberland Plateau where voter registration has trended increasingly toward the GOP over the past decade, even as light industrial growth draws a modestly younger workforce.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 56.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 6.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 56.1 points.
A population of 42,166, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,487 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Winchester, TN and Lewisburg, TN.
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Winchester, TN
94.6twin score
elasticity2000–2024 trajectory≠ college share
Lewisburg, TN
92.7twin score
12-yr trend2000–2024 trajectory≠ median income
Scottsboro, AL
92.4twin score
elasticity12-yr trend2024 margin≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
McMinnville, TN, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/32660/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within McMinnville, TN
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Frequently asked questions
How did McMinnville, TN, Tennessee vote in 2024?
In 2024, McMinnville, TN, Tennessee voted Republican by 56.1 points (R+56.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 17,015 votes cast, 3,647 went Democratic and 13,192 went Republican.
When did McMinnville, TN, Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which McMinnville, TN, Tennessee voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
McMinnville, TN, Tennessee has a population of 42,166 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
Median household income in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee is $55,487 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 26 went Democratic and 7 went Republican.