HarrisDemocratic17.2%2,782TrumpRepublican81.9%13,208KennedyIndependent0.6%89
R+64.6- Lead
- 10,426
- Total
- 16,128
- vs nation
- R+63.2
- Turnout
- 58.8%
Akashiccounty
Lincoln County, TN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.8% of 27,593 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic18.7%2,919TrumpRepublican78.7%12,281WestIndependent0.9%147
R+60.0- Lead
- 9,362
- Total
- 15,608
- vs nation
- R+64.4
- Turnout
- 60.4%
ClintonDemocratic19.1%2,554TrumpRepublican77.9%10,398JohnsonLibertarian1.7%231
R+58.8- Lead
- 7,844
- Total
- 13,348
- vs nation
- R+60.9
- Turnout
- 52.5%
ObamaDemocratic24.8%3,290RomneyRepublican73.9%9,803OtherAll other candidates1.3%175
R+49.1- Lead
- 6,513
- Total
- 13,268
- vs nation
- R+52.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic28.1%3,695McCainRepublican70.3%9,231OtherAll other candidates1.6%204
R+42.2- Lead
- 5,536
- Total
- 13,130
- vs nation
- R+49.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic36.5%4,546BushRepublican62.8%7,829OtherAll other candidates0.7%82
R+26.4- Lead
- 3,283
- Total
- 12,457
- vs nation
- R+23.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic47.5%5,060BushRepublican51.0%5,435NaderGreen0.7%72
R+3.5- Lead
- 375
- Total
- 10,659
- vs nation
- R+4.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.7%4,361DoleRepublican46.7%4,551PerotReform7.8%761
R+1.9- Lead
- 190
- Total
- 9,747
- vs nation
- R+10.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+64.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 35,9462024 5-year
- Population density
- 63 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 570 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $64,6672024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+81.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Claiborne County, TN · twin score 94.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.8%16,218 participants ÷ 27,593 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +26.2 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 32.6%–40.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 13,494 | 25,694 | 52.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 10,650 | 25,839 | 41.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 15,668 | 25,949 | 60.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 9,203 | 26,898 | 34.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 16,218 | 27,593 | 58.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Lincoln County, TN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
90.3%
3,095 votes · D+81.9
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 88.8%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
81.9%
13,208 votes · R+64.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 78.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Jimmy Carter1976
5,732votes
76.2% of the vote · D+53.3
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1980 · 5,387 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
13,208votes
81.9% of the vote · R+64.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 12,281 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+98.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+72.8 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Adlai Stevenson, 1956 · +72.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+64.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+60.0 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +63.2 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 16.6%2,488 | 83.4%12,491 | 14,979 |
| 2020 | R | 19.8%2,982 | 80.2%12,084 | 15,066 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 20,817 |
| 2018 | 20,215 |
| 2020 | 21,845 |
| 2022 | 22,870 |
| 2024 | 24,424 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+156 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,242 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $64,722 in average income, against $68,944 for residents who stayed — 6% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+35.5 on average — 29 points more Democratic-leaning than Lincoln County, TN itself (R+64.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Madison County, AL189R+8.9
- Franklin County, TN64R+53.2
- Marshall County, TN47R+56.6
- Giles County, TN43R+55.0
- Rutherford County, TN38R+21.8
- Bedford County, TN37R+58.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Madison County, AL208
- Franklin County, TN49
- Giles County, TN47
- Rutherford County, TN37
- Limestone County, AL36
- Marshall County, TN33
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +2 |
| 2012 | +44 |
| 2013 | +176 |
| 2014 | −8 |
| 2015 | +206 |
| 2016 | +25 |
| 2017 | +324 |
| 2018 | +348 |
| 2019 | +212 |
| 2021 | +272 |
| 2022 | +705 |
| 2023 | +215 |
| 2024 | +565 |
| 2025 | +156 |
Lincoln County, anchored by Fayetteville in south-central Tennessee, recorded an R+64.7 presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the state's most decisively one-sided rural counties in a era of widening small-town partisan gaps.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 81.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 64.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 64.6 points.
A population of 35,946, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,667 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Claiborne County and Cherokee County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Claiborne County
Tennessee
94.8twin score
elasticity2012–2024 trajectory
Cherokee County
Alabama
94.3twin score
elasticity2008–2024 trajectory
Dyer County
Tennessee
92.8twin score
elasticity% Evangelical2020–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lincoln County, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/47103/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Lincoln County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Lincoln County, Tennessee vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lincoln County, Tennessee voted Republican by 64.6 points (R+64.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 16,128 votes cast, 2,782 went Democratic and 13,208 went Republican.
When did Lincoln County, Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lincoln County, Tennessee voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Lincoln County, Tennessee?
Lincoln County, Tennessee has a population of 35,946 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lincoln County, Tennessee?
Median household income in Lincoln County, Tennessee is $64,667 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Lincoln County, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lincoln County, Tennessee from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 10 went Republican.