AkashicTennessee — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 8%; raw Republican YES price 91%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Marsha BlackburnRNominee |
| Jerri GreenDNominee |
| Lauren PinkstonIndependentNominee |
| John RoseR |
Declared candidates. Open seat; Gov. Bill Lee term-limited. Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the Aug. 6 GOP primary with ~43% over Rep. John Rose (~33%); Memphis councilmember Jerri Green won the Dem primary with 69.0%. Either winner would be Tennessee's first female governor. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Bill LeeR | R+21 |
| 2014 | Bill HaslamR | R+48 |
| 2010 | Bill HaslamR | R+32 |
| 2006 | Phil BredesenD | D+39 |
| 2002 | Phil BredesenD | D+3 |
| 1998 | Don SundquistR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →