- Lead
- 22,758
- Total
- 174,438
- vs nation
- R+11.6
- Turnout
- 62.2%
Hamilton County, TN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 62.2% of 283,789 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 16,586
- Total
- 171,113
- vs nation
- R+14.1
- Turnout
- 61.7%
- Lead
- 23,417
- Total
- 142,408
- vs nation
- R+18.5
- Turnout
- 54.2%
- Lead
- 21,097
- Total
- 141,741
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 17,456
- Total
- 147,520
- vs nation
- R+19.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 21,245
- Total
- 136,936
- vs nation
- R+13.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 14,897
- Total
- 120,379
- vs nation
- R+12.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 7,197
- Total
- 110,831
- vs nation
- R+15.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 376,1922024 5-year
- Median household income
- $76,1832024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 68.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+40.9 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+45.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Madison County, AL · twin score 93.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 62.2%176,632 participants ÷ 283,789 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +25.4 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 36.9%–47.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 145,049 | 267,798 | 54.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 134,494 | 273,008 | 49.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 172,363 | 279,194 | 61.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 101,829 | 280,111 | 36.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 176,632 | 283,789 | 62.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
92 precincts · 174,438 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Ooltewah RinggoldOoltewah Ringgold | 1,322 | 2,884 | 71 | 4,277 | 30.9% | 67.4% | R+36.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -OoltewahOoltewah | 1,041 | 2,759 | 79 | 3,879 | 26.8% | 71.1% | R+44.3 |
| Precinct -Hurricane CreekHurricane Creek | 1,385 | 2,361 | 58 | 3,804 | 36.4% | 62.1% | R+25.7 |
| Precinct -WolfteverWolftever | 1,423 | 2,322 | 51 | 3,796 | 37.5% | 61.2% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct -ValleybrookValleybrook | 1,363 | 2,294 | 67 | 3,724 | 36.6% | 61.6% | R+25.0 |
| Precinct -East Brainerd BEast Brainerd B | 1,417 | 2,167 | 52 | 3,636 | 39.0% | 59.6% | R+20.6 |
| Precinct -Signal Mountain BSignal Mountain B | 1,650 | 1,909 | 56 | 3,615 | 45.6% | 52.8% | R+7.2 |
| Precinct -Harrison BayHarrison Bay | 919 | 2,638 | 37 | 3,594 | 25.6% | 73.4% | R+47.8 |
| Precinct -Lookout ValleyLookout Valley | 969 | 2,431 | 51 | 3,451 | 28.1% | 70.4% | R+42.4 |
| Precinct -HunterHunter | 1,017 | 2,245 | 38 | 3,300 | 30.8% | 68.0% | R+37.2 |
| Precinct -GannsGanns | 859 | 2,163 | 43 | 3,065 | 28.0% | 70.6% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct -DallasDallas | 713 | 2,264 | 49 | 3,026 | 23.6% | 74.8% | R+51.3 |
| Precinct -NorthwoodsNorthwoods | 1,318 | 1,572 | 53 | 2,943 | 44.8% | 53.4% | R+8.6 |
| Precinct -Mountain Creek AMountain Creek A | 1,348 | 1,444 | 44 | 2,836 | 47.5% | 50.9% | R+3.4 |
| Precinct -HarrisonHarrison | 1,268 | 1,515 | 32 | 2,815 | 45.0% | 53.8% | R+8.8 |
| Precinct -Pleasant Grove APleasant Grove A | 879 | 1,852 | 47 | 2,778 | 31.6% | 66.7% | R+35.0 |
| Precinct -Possum CreekPossum Creek | 540 | 2,205 | 27 | 2,772 | 19.5% | 79.5% | R+60.1 |
| Precinct -East Ridge BEast Ridge B | 1,227 | 1,438 | 56 | 2,721 | 45.1% | 52.8% | R+7.8 |
| Precinct -NorthshoreNorthshore | 1,652 | 904 | 65 | 2,621 | 63.0% | 34.5% | D+28.5 |
| Precinct -Savannah BaySavannah Bay | 616 | 1,988 | 17 | 2,621 | 23.5% | 75.8% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct -East Ridge AEast Ridge A | 1,103 | 1,435 | 49 | 2,587 | 42.6% | 55.5% | R+12.8 |
| Precinct -Soddy Daisy ASoddy Daisy A | 577 | 1,965 | 23 | 2,565 | 22.5% | 76.6% | R+54.1 |
| Precinct -MeadowviewMeadowview | 470 | 2,050 | 28 | 2,548 | 18.4% | 80.5% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -Stuart HeightsStuart Heights | 1,357 | 1,123 | 48 | 2,528 | 53.7% | 44.4% | D+9.3 |
| Precinct -East Brainerd AEast Brainerd A | 972 | 1,512 | 37 | 2,521 | 38.6% | 60.0% | R+21.4 |
| Precinct -SummitSummit | 1,047 | 1,397 | 48 | 2,492 | 42.0% | 56.1% | R+14.0 |
| Precinct -Westview BWestview B | 942 | 1,497 | 49 | 2,488 | 37.9% | 60.2% | R+22.3 |
| Precinct -Soddy Daisy BSoddy Daisy B | 508 | 1,890 | 34 | 2,432 | 20.9% | 77.7% | R+56.8 |
| Precinct -DupontDupont | 965 | 1,383 | 32 | 2,380 | 40.5% | 58.1% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -Red Bank ARed Bank A | 1,286 | 967 | 53 | 2,306 | 55.8% | 41.9% | D+13.8 |
| Precinct -FairmountFairmount | 702 | 1,533 | 41 | 2,276 | 30.8% | 67.4% | R+36.5 |
| Precinct -East Ridge DEast Ridge D | 917 | 1,308 | 25 | 2,250 | 40.8% | 58.1% | R+17.4 |
| Precinct -Concord BConcord B | 1,073 | 1,112 | 38 | 2,223 | 48.3% | 50.0% | R+1.8 |
| Precinct -NorthgateNorthgate | 883 | 1,296 | 43 | 2,222 | 39.7% | 58.3% | R+18.6 |
| Precinct -SequoyahSequoyah | 486 | 1,711 | 25 | 2,222 | 21.9% | 77.0% | R+55.1 |
| Precinct -Lupton CityLupton City | 1,041 | 1,018 | 32 | 2,091 | 49.8% | 48.7% | D+1.1 |
| Precinct -St ElmoSt Elmo | 1,394 | 600 | 47 | 2,041 | 68.3% | 29.4% | D+38.9 |
| Precinct -Apison BApison B | 635 | 1,341 | 45 | 2,021 | 31.4% | 66.4% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -Signal Mountain ASignal Mountain A | 944 | 1,021 | 40 | 2,005 | 47.1% | 50.9% | R+3.8 |
| Precinct -Red Bank BRed Bank B | 901 | 1,032 | 43 | 1,976 | 45.6% | 52.2% | R+6.6 |
| Precinct -Ooltewah GeorgetownOoltewah Georgetown | 456 | 1,484 | 20 | 1,960 | 23.3% | 75.7% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct -Sale CreekSale Creek | 306 | 1,580 | 17 | 1,903 | 16.1% | 83.0% | R+66.9 |
| Precinct -EastsideEastside | 1,277 | 542 | 32 | 1,851 | 69.0% | 29.3% | D+39.7 |
| Precinct -DowntownDowntown | 1,210 | 602 | 36 | 1,848 | 65.5% | 32.6% | D+32.9 |
| Precinct -BirchwoodBirchwood | 290 | 1,484 | 18 | 1,792 | 16.2% | 82.8% | R+66.6 |
| Precinct -Bonny OaksBonny Oaks | 1,345 | 377 | 25 | 1,747 | 77.0% | 21.6% | D+55.4 |
| Precinct -Middle ValleyMiddle Valley | 495 | 1,223 | 21 | 1,739 | 28.5% | 70.3% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -TynerTyner | 846 | 832 | 21 | 1,699 | 49.8% | 49.0% | D+0.8 |
| Precinct -HixsonHixson | 707 | 912 | 33 | 1,652 | 42.8% | 55.2% | R+12.4 |
| Precinct -RidgedaleRidgedale | 1,275 | 313 | 49 | 1,637 | 77.9% | 19.1% | D+58.8 |
| Precinct -BrainerdBrainerd | 978 | 592 | 41 | 1,611 | 60.7% | 36.7% | D+24.0 |
| Precinct -DalewoodDalewood | 1,471 | 113 | 15 | 1,599 | 92.0% | 7.1% | D+84.9 |
| Precinct -Red Bank CRed Bank C | 731 | 771 | 30 | 1,532 | 47.7% | 50.3% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct -RiverviewRiverview | 912 | 580 | 29 | 1,521 | 60.0% | 38.1% | D+21.8 |
| Precinct -Apison AApison A | 291 | 1,203 | 25 | 1,519 | 19.2% | 79.2% | R+60.0 |
| Precinct -EastgateEastgate | 1,187 | 295 | 25 | 1,507 | 78.8% | 19.6% | D+59.2 |
| Precinct -BushtownBushtown | 1,262 | 183 | 26 | 1,471 | 85.8% | 12.4% | D+73.4 |
| Precinct -Collegedale ACollegedale A | 573 | 853 | 17 | 1,443 | 39.7% | 59.1% | R+19.4 |
| Precinct -Murray HillsMurray Hills | 883 | 534 | 19 | 1,436 | 61.5% | 37.2% | D+24.3 |
| Precinct -KingspointKingspoint | 954 | 454 | 25 | 1,433 | 66.6% | 31.7% | D+34.9 |
| Precinct -Concord AConcord A | 700 | 649 | 18 | 1,367 | 51.2% | 47.5% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct -WaldenWalden | 546 | 798 | 18 | 1,362 | 40.1% | 58.6% | R+18.5 |
| Precinct -GlenwoodGlenwood | 1,057 | 280 | 24 | 1,361 | 77.7% | 20.6% | D+57.1 |
| Precinct -Soddy Daisy CSoddy Daisy C | 293 | 1,034 | 15 | 1,342 | 21.8% | 77.0% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -WoodmoreWoodmore | 1,148 | 144 | 21 | 1,313 | 87.4% | 11.0% | D+76.5 |
| Precinct -Brainerd HillsBrainerd Hills | 709 | 583 | 20 | 1,312 | 54.0% | 44.4% | D+9.6 |
| Precinct -Westview AWestview A | 446 | 826 | 16 | 1,288 | 34.6% | 64.1% | R+29.5 |
| Precinct -Lookout MountainLookout Mountain | 506 | 763 | 15 | 1,284 | 39.4% | 59.4% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct -East ChattanoogaEast Chattanooga | 1,105 | 153 | 14 | 1,272 | 86.9% | 12.0% | D+74.8 |
| Precinct -Alton ParkAlton Park | 1,049 | 184 | 28 | 1,261 | 83.2% | 14.6% | D+68.6 |
| Precinct -North Chattanooga ANorth Chattanooga A | 737 | 468 | 25 | 1,230 | 59.9% | 38.0% | D+21.9 |
| Precinct -Missionary RidgeMissionary Ridge | 691 | 499 | 30 | 1,220 | 56.6% | 40.9% | D+15.7 |
| Precinct -LakesiteLakesite | 256 | 865 | 19 | 1,140 | 22.5% | 75.9% | R+53.4 |
| Precinct -East Ridge CEast Ridge C | 400 | 692 | 19 | 1,111 | 36.0% | 62.3% | R+26.3 |
| Precinct -Lake HillsLake Hills | 788 | 310 | 12 | 1,110 | 71.0% | 27.9% | D+43.1 |
| Precinct -SilverdaleSilverdale | 514 | 522 | 18 | 1,054 | 48.8% | 49.5% | R+0.8 |
| Precinct -Mountain Creek BMountain Creek B | 511 | 513 | 27 | 1,051 | 48.6% | 48.8% | R+0.2 |
| Precinct -Airport BAirport B | 583 | 388 | 19 | 990 | 58.9% | 39.2% | D+19.7 |
| Precinct -CourthouseCourthouse | 696 | 236 | 25 | 957 | 72.7% | 24.7% | D+48.1 |
| Precinct -East LakeEast Lake | 523 | 341 | 21 | 885 | 59.1% | 38.5% | D+20.6 |
| Precinct -Collegedale BCollegedale B | 289 | 574 | 13 | 876 | 33.0% | 65.5% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct -Falling Water BFalling Water B | 239 | 619 | 7 | 865 | 27.6% | 71.6% | R+43.9 |
| Precinct -AvondaleAvondale | 768 | 75 | 12 | 855 | 89.8% | 8.8% | D+81.1 |
| Precinct -North Chattanooga BNorth Chattanooga B | 400 | 401 | 22 | 823 | 48.6% | 48.7% | R+0.1 |
| Precinct -Mowbray BMowbray B | 124 | 456 | 14 | 594 | 20.9% | 76.8% | R+55.9 |
| Precinct -Flat Top MountainFlat Top Mountain | 65 | 351 | 5 | 421 | 15.4% | 83.4% | R+67.9 |
| Precinct -Mowbray AMowbray A | 70 | 338 | 6 | 414 | 16.9% | 81.6% | R+64.7 |
| Precinct -Falling Water AFalling Water A | 123 | 272 | 5 | 400 | 30.8% | 68.0% | R+37.3 |
| Precinct -RidgesideRidgeside | 186 | 114 | 9 | 309 | 60.2% | 36.9% | D+23.3 |
| Precinct -Airport AAirport A | 216 | 75 | 0 | 291 | 74.2% | 25.8% | D+48.5 |
| Precinct -Pleasant Grove BPleasant Grove B | 61 | 136 | 5 | 202 | 30.2% | 67.3% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -Mountain Creek CMountain Creek C | 60 | 63 | 7 | 130 | 46.2% | 48.5% | R+2.3 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +3.8% |
| 1896 | −11.3% |
| 1900 | −12.8% |
| 1904 | −10.6% |
| 1908 | −0.8% |
| 1912 | +31.2% |
| 1916 | +6.5% |
| 1920 | −4.2% |
| 1924 | −5.4% |
| 1928 | −29.5% |
| 1932 | +23.1% |
| 1936 | +40.9% |
| 1940 | +27.2% |
| 1944 | +25.4% |
| 1948 | +21.6% |
| 1952 | −10.9% |
| 1956 | −9.5% |
| 1960 | −12.9% |
| 1964 | −2.1% |
| 1968 | −6.9% |
| 1972 | −45.7% |
| 1976 | −2.8% |
| 1980 | −15.3% |
| 1984 | −25.2% |
| 1988 | −24.7% |
| 1992 | −5.8% |
| 1996 | −6.5% |
| 2000 | −12.4% |
| 2004 | −15.5% |
| 2008 | −11.8% |
| 2012 | −14.9% |
| 2016 | −16.4% |
| 2020 | −9.7% |
| 2024 | −13.0% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 247,712 |
| 2018 | 255,759 |
| 2020 | 250,362 |
| 2022 | 258,948 |
| 2024 | 274,755 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2,140 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +35,817 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $76,172 in average income, against $102,405 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+25.3 on average — 12 points more Republican-leaning than Hamilton County, TN itself (R+13.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Bradley County, TN637R+58.9
- Catoosa County, GA598R+55.5
- Walker County, GA423R+59.3
- Davidson County, TN289D+27.4
- Knox County, TN259R+19.5
- Rhea County, TN179R+66.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Catoosa County, GA742
- Bradley County, TN681
- Walker County, GA527
- Davidson County, TN262
- Knox County, TN207
- Marion County, TN178
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +2,415 |
| 2012 | +3,361 |
| 2013 | +1,977 |
| 2014 | +641 |
| 2015 | +1,869 |
| 2016 | +2,898 |
| 2017 | +2,332 |
| 2018 | +2,244 |
| 2019 | +2,595 |
| 2021 | +1,500 |
| 2022 | +5,005 |
| 2023 | +3,807 |
| 2024 | +3,033 |
| 2025 | +2,140 |
Hamilton County anchors Tennessee's fourth-largest metro and has shifted from a competitive swing county in the early 2000s to a reliable Republican margin, reflecting broader suburban realignment across mid-sized Southern cities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 45.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 13.0 points.
A population of 376,192, a 68% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,183 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Madison County and Knox County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Hamilton County, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/47065/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.