HarrisDemocratic16.4%524TrumpRepublican82.1%2,628KennedyIndependent0.6%20
R+65.8- Lead
- 2,104
- Total
- 3,200
- vs nation
- R+64.3
- Turnout
- 50.3%
Akashiccounty
Prairie County, AR
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 50.3% of 6,393 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic18.7%654TrumpRepublican79.7%2,786JorgensenLibertarian0.5%16
R+61.0- Lead
- 2,132
- Total
- 3,495
- vs nation
- R+65.5
- Turnout
- 54.3%
ClintonDemocratic24.1%814TrumpRepublican74.2%2,505JohnsonLibertarian1.7%56
R+50.1- Lead
- 1,691
- Total
- 3,375
- vs nation
- R+52.2
- Turnout
- 52.6%
ObamaDemocratic28.0%880RomneyRepublican68.5%2,153HonkalaGreen1.6%51
R+40.5- Lead
- 1,273
- Total
- 3,141
- vs nation
- R+44.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic31.0%1,048McCainRepublican65.7%2,223OtherAll other candidates3.3%110
R+34.8- Lead
- 1,175
- Total
- 3,381
- vs nation
- R+42.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic43.1%1,562BushRepublican56.0%2,030OtherAll other candidates0.9%32
R+12.9- Lead
- 468
- Total
- 3,624
- vs nation
- R+10.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic44.6%1,563BushRepublican53.1%1,862NaderGreen0.8%29
R+8.5- Lead
- 299
- Total
- 3,507
- vs nation
- R+9.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic61.8%2,211DoleRepublican28.7%1,025PerotReform8.5%305
D+33.2- Lead
- 1,186
- Total
- 3,575
- vs nation
- D+24.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+65.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 8,0642024 5-year
- Median household income
- $51,6462024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+82.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+65.8 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Perry County, AR · twin score 95.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 50.3%3,216 participants ÷ 6,393 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 37.5%–39.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,474 | 6,605 | 52.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,860 | 6,563 | 43.6% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,503 | 6,448 | 54.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,721 | 6,557 | 41.5% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,216 | 6,393 | 50.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
24 precincts · 3,200 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Hickory PlainsHickory Plains | 26 | 257 | 5 | 288 | 9.0% | 89.2% | R+80.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Wattensaw CountryWattensaw Country | 38 | 228 | 5 | 271 | 14.0% | 84.1% | R+70.1 |
| Precinct -White River CountryWhite River Country | 44 | 221 | 2 | 267 | 16.5% | 82.8% | R+66.3 |
| Precinct -White River Ward 2White River Ward 2 | 30 | 169 | 4 | 203 | 14.8% | 83.3% | R+68.5 |
| Precinct -CenterCenter | 11 | 183 | 3 | 197 | 5.6% | 92.9% | R+87.3 |
| Precinct -White River Ward 3White River Ward 3 | 26 | 164 | 3 | 193 | 13.5% | 85.0% | R+71.5 |
| Precinct -Hazen Ward 1Hazen Ward 1 | 37 | 147 | 1 | 185 | 20.0% | 79.5% | R+59.5 |
| Precinct -Hazen Ward 2Hazen Ward 2 | 35 | 143 | 4 | 182 | 19.2% | 78.6% | R+59.3 |
| Precinct -White River Ward 1White River Ward 1 | 47 | 115 | 0 | 162 | 29.0% | 71.0% | R+42.0 |
| Precinct -Hazen Ward 3Hazen Ward 3 | 40 | 104 | 5 | 149 | 26.8% | 69.8% | R+43.0 |
| Precinct -Hazen CountryHazen Country | 26 | 111 | 2 | 139 | 18.7% | 79.9% | R+61.2 |
| Precinct -Belcher / TylerBelcher / Tyler | 12 | 104 | 2 | 118 | 10.2% | 88.1% | R+78.0 |
| Precinct -Lower Hill CityLower Hill City | 34 | 80 | 3 | 117 | 29.1% | 68.4% | R+39.3 |
| Precinct -CalhounCalhoun | 9 | 98 | 1 | 108 | 8.3% | 90.7% | R+82.4 |
| Precinct -Des ArcDes Arc | 8 | 95 | 0 | 103 | 7.8% | 92.2% | R+84.5 |
| Precinct -Roc Roe CountryRoc Roe Country | 6 | 94 | 1 | 101 | 5.9% | 93.1% | R+87.1 |
| Precinct -Lower Hill CountryLower Hill Country | 17 | 72 | 0 | 89 | 19.1% | 80.9% | R+61.8 |
| Precinct -BullardBullard | 12 | 49 | 0 | 61 | 19.7% | 80.3% | R+60.7 |
| Precinct -Roc Roe CityRoc Roe City | 11 | 45 | 2 | 58 | 19.0% | 77.6% | R+58.6 |
| Precinct -Wattensaw City Ward 2Wattensaw City Ward 2 | 24 | 31 | 0 | 55 | 43.6% | 56.4% | R+12.7 |
| Precinct -UnionUnion | 2 | 44 | 2 | 48 | 4.2% | 91.7% | R+87.5 |
| Precinct -Wattensaw City Ward 1Wattensaw City Ward 1 | 13 | 32 | 2 | 47 | 27.7% | 68.1% | R+40.4 |
| Precinct -Wattensaw City Ward 3Wattensaw City Ward 3 | 11 | 29 | 1 | 41 | 26.8% | 70.7% | R+43.9 |
| Precinct -Upper HillUpper Hill | 5 | 13 | 0 | 18 | 27.8% | 72.2% | R+44.4 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +21.8% |
| 1896 | +28.7% |
| 1900 | +26.5% |
| 1904 | −0.7% |
| 1908 | +14.7% |
| 1912 | +22.8% |
| 1916 | +23.7% |
| 1920 | +6.5% |
| 1924 | +29.1% |
| 1928 | +23.9% |
| 1932 | +82.9% |
| 1936 | +64.7% |
| 1940 | +52.1% |
| 1944 | +41.1% |
| 1948 | +45.3% |
| 1952 | +31.2% |
| 1956 | +24.1% |
| 1960 | +35.9% |
| 1964 | +10.2% |
| 1968 | +5.1% |
| 1972 | −42.9% |
| 1976 | +55.4% |
| 1980 | +1.9% |
| 1984 | −25.0% |
| 1988 | −7.1% |
| 1992 | +30.6% |
| 1996 | +33.2% |
| 2000 | −8.5% |
| 2004 | −12.9% |
| 2008 | −34.8% |
| 2012 | −40.5% |
| 2016 | −50.1% |
| 2020 | −61.0% |
| 2024 | −65.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 33 Senate · 2 Senate special · 15 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 4,943 |
| 2020 | 4,981 |
| 2022 | 4,741 |
| 2024 | 4,725 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−1 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −471 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $49,006 in average income, against $62,527 for residents who stayed — 22% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+49.8 on average — 16 points more Democratic-leaning than Prairie County, AR itself (R+65.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Lonoke County, AR38R+53.7
- Arkansas County, AR26R+44.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Lonoke County, AR49
- Pulaski County, AR23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −101 |
| 2012 | −98 |
| 2013 | −100 |
| 2014 | −11 |
| 2015 | −26 |
| 2016 | −4 |
| 2017 | +14 |
| 2018 | −143 |
| 2019 | +19 |
| 2021 | −85 |
| 2022 | +48 |
| 2023 | +36 |
| 2024 | −19 |
| 2025 | −1 |
Prairie County's population has declined steadily for decades, leaving a sparse, agriculture-dominated electorate that delivered a 65-point Republican margin in 2024 — among the widest gaps in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 82.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 65.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 65.8 points.
A population of 8,064, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $51,646 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Perry County and Cleveland County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Perry County
Arkansas
95.0twin score
elasticity2008–2024 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
Cleveland County
Arkansas
94.8twin score
elasticity2012–2024 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
Decatur County
Tennessee
93.0twin score
elasticity2020–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Prairie County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05117/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Prairie County, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Prairie County, Arkansas voted Republican by 65.8 points (R+65.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,200 votes cast, 524 went Democratic and 2,628 went Republican.
When did Prairie County, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Prairie County, Arkansas voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Prairie County, Arkansas?
Prairie County, Arkansas has a population of 8,064 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Prairie County, Arkansas?
Median household income in Prairie County, Arkansas is $51,646 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Prairie County, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Prairie County, Arkansas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 11 went Republican.