AkashicAlabama — Governor
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 93% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 9-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Tommy TubervilleRNominee |
| Doug JonesDNominee |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Kay Ivey (R) is term-limited. Primary held May 19, 2026. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville won the GOP primary outright (~85%); former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones won the Democratic primary outright (~76%), so the June 16 runoff was not needed for governor. Tuberville heavily favored in this red state. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AL state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kay IveyR | R+38 |
| 2018 | Kay IveyR | R+19 |
| 2014 | Robert J. BentleyR | R+27 |
| 2010 | Robert J. BentleyR | R+16 |
| 2006 | Bob RileyR | R+16 |
| 2002 | Bob RileyR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →