AkashicMinnesota — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is running for governor.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Amy KlobucharDPresumptive |
| Kendall QuallsR |
| Lisa DemuthR |
| Mike LindellR |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) announced Jan 2026 he would not seek a third term (voluntary retirement; MN has no gubernatorial term limit). DFL = Democratic ('D'). U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is running and won the DFL endorsement on the first ballot (~68%) at the May 30 2026 convention; presumptive D nominee but the Aug 11 primary is not yet held. GOP side is a genuinely contested three-way: Kendall Qualls won the convention endorsement, but the party waived the endorsement pledge amid voting irregularities, so House Speaker Lisa Demuth and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell remain in the primary. Scott Jensen (R) withdrew to run for state auditor (excluded). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MN state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tim WalzD | D+8 |
| 2018 | Tim Walz And Peggy FlanaganD | D+11 |
| 2014 | Mark DaytonD | D+6 |
| 2010 | Mark DaytonD | even |
| 2006 | Tim PawlentyR | R+1 |
| 2002 | Tim PawlentyR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →