AkashicGeorgia — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 59% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Rick JacksonRNominee |
| Keisha Lance BottomsDNominee |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Brian Kemp (R) is term-limited. Primary held May 19, 2026; a June 16, 2026 GOP runoff was required. SURPRISE: self-funding healthcare businessman Rick Jackson defeated Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones 53%-47% in the runoff to become the Republican nominee. Keisha Lance Bottoms (former Atlanta mayor) is the Democratic nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the GA state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Brian KempR | R+8 |
| 2018 | Brian KempR | R+1 |
| 2014 | Nathan DealR | R+8 |
| 2010 | Nathan DealR | R+10 |
| 2006 | Sonny PerdueR | R+20 |
| 2002 | Sonny PerdueR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 407 LV | Bottoms 49·Jones 43 | D+6 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 407 LV | Bottoms 49·Jackson 43 | D+6 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 407 LV | Bottoms 46·Raffensperger 44 | D+2 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 407 LV |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →