AkashicMichigan — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 84% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is more confident — a 26-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Jocelyn BensonD |
| Chris SwansonD |
| John JamesR |
| Mike CoxR |
| Perry JohnsonR |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is term-limited. Primary is August 4, 2026 (not yet held). Democratic frontrunner is SoS Jocelyn Benson; Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist withdrew to run for SoS. GOP frontrunner is U.S. Rep. John James (Trump-endorsed); Aric Nesbitt suspended his campaign June 22 and endorsed James. Former Detroit mayor Mike Duggan had run as an independent but withdrew in May 2026, so no independent remains. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MI state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Gretchen WhitmerD | D+10 |
| 2018 | Gretchen WhitmerD | D+10 |
| 2014 | Rick SnyderR | R+4 |
| 2010 | Rick SnyderR | R+18 |
| 2006 | Jennifer GranholmD | D+14 |
| 2002 | Jennifer GranholmD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →