AkashicSouth Dakota — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 93% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Dan AhlersDPresumptive |
| Larry RhodenRIncumbent |
| Toby DoedenR |
Declared candidates. Not an open seat: incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) is running for a first full term (he ascended in Jan 2025 when Kristi Noem became DHS Secretary). The June 2 2026 primary was held but the GOP race is UNRESOLVED: in SD's first-ever gubernatorial primary runoff (35% threshold law), businessman Toby Doeden (1st, ~31%) and incumbent Rhoden (2nd, ~25%) advance to a July 28 2026 runoff; U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson was eliminated. Dan Ahlers is the sole/presumptive Democratic nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the SD state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kristi NoemR | R+27 |
| 2018 | Kristi Noem And Larry RhodenR | R+3 |
| 2014 | Dennis DaugaardR | R+45 |
| 2010 | Dennis DaugaardR | R+23 |
| 2006 | Mike RoundsR | R+26 |
| 2002 | Mike RoundsR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →