AkashicNew Mexico — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 90%; raw Republican YES price 9%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Deb HaalandDNominee |
| Gregg HullRNominee |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited (no third consecutive term). Former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic primary (~72%) over Sam Bregman; she would be the first Native American woman elected governor of any state. Former Rio Rancho mayor Gregg Hull (note: 'Gregg' with two g's) won the GOP primary (~47%) over Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez. Independent Ken Miyagishima failed to qualify for the ballot (court denied his signature petition; appeal pending) and is excluded. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →