Akashic
1876–2024
Governors / Governor

New Mexico — Governor

ForecastA single, locked expectation — as of June 22, 2026. Predicted outcomes, never results.

The call

Lean D

We expect Democratic to win — 65%.

RatingLean D
Win probabilityD 65%
Predicted marginD+6.0
The substrate
2024 baselineD+6.0
2022 resultD+6.4
Seat held byDemocratic

The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NM state page.

On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →