AkashicNew Mexico — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 91% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Deb HaalandDNominee |
| Gregg HullRNominee |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited (no third consecutive term). Former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic primary (~72%) over Sam Bregman; she would be the first Native American woman elected governor of any state. Former Rio Rancho mayor Gregg Hull (note: 'Gregg' with two g's) won the GOP primary (~47%) over Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez. Independent Ken Miyagishima failed to qualify for the ballot (court denied his signature petition; appeal pending) and is excluded. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NM state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Michelle Lujan GrishamD | D+6 |
| 2018 | Michelle Lujan Grisham And Howie C MoralesD | D+14 |
| 2014 | Susana MartínezR | R+14 |
| 2010 | Susana MartinezR | R+7 |
| 2006 | Bill RichardsonD | D+38 |
| 2002 | Bill RichardsonD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →