HarrisDemocratic51.9%478,802TrumpRepublican45.9%423,391KennedyIndependent1.0%9,553
D+6.0- Lead
- 55,411
- Total
- 923,403
- vs nation
- D+7.5
- Turnout
- 59.7%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+6.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 2,120,2462024 5-year
- Population density
- 17 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 121,313 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $64,0592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 36.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 48.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+27.0 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+24.5 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Nevada, NV · twin score 77.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 59.7%927,923 participants ÷ 1,553,240 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.5%–48.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 804,073 | 1,464,241 | 54.9% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 697,681 | 1,485,490 | 47.0% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 928,230 | 1,511,406 | 61.4% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 709,556 | 1,538,095 | 46.1% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 927,923 | 1,553,240 | 59.7% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
New Mexico · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
62.7%
95,089 votes · D+27.0
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 62.7%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
61.0%
235,606 votes · R+24.5
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 59.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
501,614votes
54.3% of the vote · D+10.8
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 478,802 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
423,391votes
45.9% of the vote · D+6.0
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 401,894 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+19.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+5.5 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +15.8 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
+14.1pts R vs U.S.
Place D+5.5 · U.S. D+19.5
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1968 · +11.4 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governoropen seat
Deb HaalandnomineeGregg Hullnominee
OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited (no third consecutive term). Former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic primary (~72%) over Sam Bregman; she would be the first Native American woman elected governor of any state. Former Rio Rancho mayor Gregg Hull (note: 'Gregg' with two g's) won the GOP primary (~47%) over Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez. Independent Ken Miyagishima failed to qualify for the ballot (court denied his signature petition; appeal pending) and is excluded.
U.S. Senate
Ben Ray LujánnomineeLarry Markernominee
Luján (D) seeking 2nd term, won primary ~83.7%. No R made the ballot; Larry Marker nominated via write-in. Solid D.
U.S. House elections · 72 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 3 | 55.1% | 44.9% | 896,498 | |
| D 3 | 55.1% | 44.9% | 704,126 | |
| D 2 · R 1 | 54.9% | 45.1% | 903,684 | |
| D 3 | 58.3% | 38.2% | 693,311 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+9.3
Presidential vote · 2024D+6.0
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 3.3 points more Republican than the rolls.
1,403,961 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−2,267 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −76,849 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +493 |
| 2012 | −7,247 |
| 2013 | −10,583 |
| 2014 | −13,779 |
| 2015 | −12,431 |
| 2016 | −7,165 |
| 2017 | −7,499 |
| 2018 | −5,244 |
| 2019 | −2,136 |
| 2021 | −978 |
| 2022 | −4,615 |
| 2023 | −1,524 |
| 2024 | −1,874 |
| 2025 | −2,267 |
Nearly half of New Mexicans are Hispanic or Latino — the largest share of any state — and the Democratic margin narrowed from 10.8 points to 6.0 as the state moved toward Trump in 2024.
- Narrowed but held
- D+10.8 (2020) → D+6.0 (2024) — a 4.8-point move toward Trump, with the national shift across Hispanic areas · MIT Election Lab
- Hispanic or Latino
- 48.4% of residents — the largest share of any state; 32.4% Mexican origin, plus the colonial-era Hispano families (Spanish 4.2%, Spaniard 3.6%) · ACS 2024 5-year (B03002 / B04006)
- The Hispano north and Albuquerque
- Santa Fe D+48.9 (bluest), Taos D+47.5; Bernalillo — Albuquerque — D+21.0 · MIT Election Lab 2024
- Little Texas
- The southeastern oil counties run Republican — Lea R+61.6 (reddest), Eddy R+55.8, Chaves R+44.8 · MIT Election Lab 2024
- The Navajo northwest moved
- McKinley County (Navajo Nation): D+38.6 (2020) → D+24.5 (2024); Doña Ana, on the border, D+18.3 → D+9.8 · MIT Election Lab
- Open governor in 2026
- Lujan Grisham term-limited — Deb Haaland (D), former U.S. Interior Secretary, vs Gregg Hull (R); Sen. Luján (D) seeks a 2nd term · Akashic 2026 forecast
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Nevada
Nevada
77.7twin score
elasticity% White% Catholic≠ % Latino
California
California
60.9twin score
% Latino% WhiteMexican ancestry≠ population scale
Arizona
Arizona
52.5twin score
Mexican ancestry% Black% Evangelical≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/NM/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, New Mexico voted Democratic by 6.0 points (D+6.0), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 923,403 votes cast, 478,802 went Democratic and 423,391 went Republican.
When did New Mexico last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which New Mexico voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in New Mexico?
New Mexico has a population of 2,120,246 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in New Mexico?
Median household income in New Mexico is $64,059 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in New Mexico from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.