HarrisDemocratic58.6%9,373TrumpRepublican39.2%6,268OtherAll other candidates1.6%249
D+19.4- Lead
- 3,105
- Total
- 15,989
- vs nation
- D+20.9
- Turnout
- 54.9%
Akashiccounty
Rio Arriba County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 54.9% of 29,271 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic66.1%10,990TrumpRepublican32.5%5,408JorgensenLibertarian0.7%119
D+33.6- Lead
- 5,582
- Total
- 16,628
- vs nation
- D+29.1
- Turnout
- 57.5%
ClintonDemocratic64.5%9,592TrumpRepublican24.2%3,599JohnsonLibertarian9.6%1,425
D+40.3- Lead
- 5,993
- Total
- 14,878
- vs nation
- D+38.2
- Turnout
- 52.0%
ObamaDemocratic74.7%11,465RomneyRepublican22.1%3,397GRAYLibertarian2.7%418
D+52.6- Lead
- 8,068
- Total
- 15,343
- vs nation
- D+48.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic75.0%12,703McCainRepublican24.1%4,086OtherAll other candidates0.9%151
D+50.9- Lead
- 8,617
- Total
- 16,940
- vs nation
- D+43.6
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic65.0%9,753BushRepublican34.3%5,149OtherAll other candidates0.6%97
D+30.7- Lead
- 4,604
- Total
- 14,999
- vs nation
- D+33.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic67.5%8,169BushRepublican28.9%3,495NaderGreen3.1%377
D+38.6- Lead
- 4,674
- Total
- 12,097
- vs nation
- D+38.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic70.5%7,965DoleRepublican22.6%2,551PerotReform4.1%469
D+47.9- Lead
- 5,414
- Total
- 11,305
- vs nation
- D+39.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+19.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 40,0702024 5-year
- Median household income
- $57,1552024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 14.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 67.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+52.6 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+31.9 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- San Miguel County, NM · twin score 98.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 54.9%16,068 participants ÷ 29,271 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.3%–44.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 15,015 | 28,900 | 52.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 12,890 | 29,152 | 44.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 16,710 | 29,045 | 57.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 13,038 | 29,696 | 43.9% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 16,068 | 29,271 | 54.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
89 precincts · 15,737 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000038000038 | 462 | 304 | 19 | 785 | 58.9% | 38.7% | D+20.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000069000069 | 405 | 305 | 0 | 710 | 57.0% | 43.0% | D+14.1 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 308 | 321 | 7 | 636 | 48.4% | 50.5% | R+2.0 |
| Precinct -000070000070 | 328 | 299 | 0 | 627 | 52.3% | 47.7% | D+4.6 |
| Precinct -000063000063 | 349 | 232 | 14 | 595 | 58.7% | 39.0% | D+19.7 |
| Precinct -000059000059 | 437 | 114 | 0 | 551 | 79.3% | 20.7% | D+58.6 |
| Precinct -000057000057 | 356 | 186 | 0 | 542 | 65.7% | 34.3% | D+31.4 |
| Precinct -000067000067 | 267 | 247 | 6 | 520 | 51.3% | 47.5% | D+3.8 |
| Precinct -000037000037 | 271 | 248 | 0 | 519 | 52.2% | 47.8% | D+4.4 |
| Precinct -000064000064 | 287 | 224 | 0 | 511 | 56.2% | 43.8% | D+12.3 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 348 | 136 | 11 | 495 | 70.3% | 27.5% | D+42.8 |
| Precinct -000060000060 | 390 | 94 | 8 | 492 | 79.3% | 19.1% | D+60.2 |
| Precinct -000036000036 | 212 | 270 | 0 | 482 | 44.0% | 56.0% | R+12.0 |
| Precinct -000045000045 | 284 | 193 | 0 | 477 | 59.5% | 40.5% | D+19.1 |
| Precinct -000065000065 | 301 | 161 | 0 | 462 | 65.2% | 34.8% | D+30.3 |
| Precinct -000027000027 | 323 | 137 | 0 | 460 | 70.2% | 29.8% | D+40.4 |
| Precinct -000026000026 | 301 | 149 | 9 | 459 | 65.6% | 32.5% | D+33.1 |
| Precinct -000068000068 | 243 | 189 | 0 | 432 | 56.3% | 43.8% | D+12.5 |
| Precinct -000048000048 | 313 | 98 | 11 | 422 | 74.2% | 23.2% | D+50.9 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 184 | 206 | 0 | 390 | 47.2% | 52.8% | R+5.6 |
| Precinct -000056000056 | 254 | 130 | 0 | 384 | 66.1% | 33.9% | D+32.3 |
| Precinct -000066000066 | 191 | 181 | 0 | 372 | 51.3% | 48.7% | D+2.7 |
| Precinct -000071000071 | 231 | 120 | 0 | 351 | 65.8% | 34.2% | D+31.6 |
| Precinct -000058000058 | 187 | 155 | 7 | 349 | 53.6% | 44.4% | D+9.2 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 198 | 74 | 7 | 279 | 71.0% | 26.5% | D+44.4 |
| Precinct -000039000039 | 156 | 121 | 0 | 277 | 56.3% | 43.7% | D+12.6 |
| Precinct -000061000061 | 157 | 115 | 0 | 272 | 57.7% | 42.3% | D+15.4 |
| Precinct -000073000073 | 165 | 104 | 0 | 269 | 61.3% | 38.7% | D+22.7 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 135 | 129 | 0 | 264 | 51.1% | 48.9% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -000047000047 | 156 | 94 | 0 | 250 | 62.4% | 37.6% | D+24.8 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 112 | 108 | 0 | 220 | 50.9% | 49.1% | D+1.8 |
| Precinct -000062000062 | 121 | 83 | 0 | 204 | 59.3% | 40.7% | D+18.6 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 104 | 88 | 0 | 192 | 54.2% | 45.8% | D+8.3 |
| Precinct -000040000040 | 106 | 71 | 0 | 177 | 59.9% | 40.1% | D+19.8 |
| Precinct -000023000023 | 49 | 116 | 0 | 165 | 29.7% | 70.3% | R+40.6 |
| Precinct -000049000049 | 129 | 31 | 0 | 160 | 80.6% | 19.4% | D+61.3 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 30 | 113 | 0 | 143 | 21.0% | 79.0% | R+58.0 |
| Precinct -000072000072 | 81 | 57 | 0 | 138 | 58.7% | 41.3% | D+17.4 |
| Precinct -000046000046 | 76 | 53 | 0 | 129 | 58.9% | 41.1% | D+17.8 |
| Precinct -000074000074 | 101 | 28 | 0 | 129 | 78.3% | 21.7% | D+56.6 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 70 | 56 | 0 | 126 | 55.6% | 44.4% | D+11.1 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 51 | 35 | 0 | 86 | 59.3% | 40.7% | D+18.6 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 50 | 22 | 0 | 72 | 69.4% | 30.6% | D+38.9 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 37 | 28 | 0 | 65 | 56.9% | 43.1% | D+13.8 |
| Precinct -000035000035 | 27 | 26 | 0 | 53 | 50.9% | 49.1% | D+1.9 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 28 | 71.4% | 28.6% | D+42.9 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 56.3% | 43.8% | D+12.5 |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 135_350391 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1035_3503910 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1135_3503911 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1235_3503912 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1335_3503913 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1435_3503914 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1535_3503915 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1635_3503916 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1735_3503917 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1835_3503918 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 1935_3503919 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 235_350392 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2035_3503920 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2135_3503921 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2235_3503922 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2335_3503923 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2435_3503924 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2535_3503925 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2635_3503926 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2735_3503927 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2835_3503928 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 2935_3503929 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 335_350393 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3035_3503930 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3135_3503931 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3235_3503932 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3335_3503933 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3435_3503934 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3535_3503935 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3635_3503936 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3735_3503937 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3835_3503938 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 3935_3503939 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 435_350394 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 4035_3503940 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 4135_3503941 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 4235_3503942 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 535_350395 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 635_350396 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 735_350397 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 835_350398 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Arriba County Precinct 935_350399 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | −20.5% |
| 1916 | −13.2% |
| 1920 | −31.9% |
| 1924 | −14.8% |
| 1928 | −25.4% |
| 1932 | +29.9% |
| 1936 | +6.8% |
| 1940 | +7.2% |
| 1944 | +3.5% |
| 1948 | +5.3% |
| 1952 | +2.6% |
| 1956 | −3.1% |
| 1960 | +25.4% |
| 1964 | +39.8% |
| 1968 | +9.5% |
| 1972 | +12.7% |
| 1976 | +37.4% |
| 1980 | +23.1% |
| 1984 | +25.3% |
| 1988 | +42.2% |
| 1992 | +44.6% |
| 1996 | +47.9% |
| 2000 | +38.6% |
| 2004 | +30.7% |
| 2008 | +50.9% |
| 2012 | +52.6% |
| 2016 | +40.3% |
| 2020 | +33.6% |
| 2024 | +19.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+45.1
Presidential vote · 2024D+19.4
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 26 points more Democratic.
26,309 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−99 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,913 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $58,443 in average income, against $56,473 for residents who stayed — 3% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+33.8 on average — 14 points more Democratic-leaning than Rio Arriba County, NM itself (D+19.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Santa Fe County, NM213D+48.9
- Bernalillo County, NM92D+21.0
- Los Alamos County, NM38D+30.2
- Sandoval County, NM34D+5.8
- Taos County, NM30D+47.5
- San Juan County, NM21R+31.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Santa Fe County, NM235
- Bernalillo County, NM115
- Sandoval County, NM63
- Taos County, NM34
- San Juan County, NM31
- Los Alamos County, NM27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −310 |
| 2012 | −267 |
| 2013 | −430 |
| 2014 | −494 |
| 2015 | −538 |
| 2016 | −235 |
| 2017 | −103 |
| 2018 | −207 |
| 2019 | −88 |
| 2021 | +18 |
| 2022 | −122 |
| 2023 | −57 |
| 2024 | +19 |
| 2025 | −99 |
Rio Arriba's electorate is roughly 75% Hispanic, a demographic reality that has anchored consistent double-digit Democratic margins for decades. The county's rural high-desert geography and land-grant history make it culturally distinct from most of the rural West.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 52.6 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 31.9 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 14.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.4 points.
A population of 40,070, a 14% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,155 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of San Miguel County and Dimmit County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
San Miguel County
New Mexico
98.6twin score
2012–2016 trajectory% Catholic% Latino
Dimmit County
Texas
96.4twin score
% Catholic2000–2008 trajectory% Latino≠ median age
Zavala County
Texas
95.4twin score
% Catholic% Latino2008–2012 trajectory≠ 12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Rio Arriba County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35039/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Rio Arriba County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Rio Arriba County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico voted Democratic by 19.4 points (D+19.4), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 15,989 votes cast, 9,373 went Democratic and 6,268 went Republican.
When did Rio Arriba County, New Mexico last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Rio Arriba County, New Mexico voted Republican was 1956.
How many people live in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico?
Rio Arriba County, New Mexico has a population of 40,070 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico is $57,155 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Rio Arriba County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.