HarrisDemocratic62.9%6,985TrumpRepublican35.0%3,887OtherAll other candidates1.6%183
D+27.9- Lead
- 3,098
- Total
- 11,108
- vs nation
- D+29.4
- Turnout
- 50.8%
Akashiccounty
San Miguel County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 50.8% of 22,019 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic68.4%7,888TrumpRepublican29.7%3,421JorgensenLibertarian1.0%115
D+38.7- Lead
- 4,467
- Total
- 11,531
- vs nation
- D+34.3
- Turnout
- 52.9%
ClintonDemocratic67.8%7,285TrumpRepublican21.5%2,313JohnsonLibertarian8.5%915
D+46.2- Lead
- 4,972
- Total
- 10,751
- vs nation
- D+44.2
- Turnout
- 49.4%
ObamaDemocratic76.9%8,850RomneyRepublican20.0%2,303OtherAll other candidates3.1%356
D+56.9- Lead
- 6,547
- Total
- 11,509
- vs nation
- D+53.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic79.7%10,320McCainRepublican19.1%2,478OtherAll other candidates1.1%143
D+60.6- Lead
- 7,842
- Total
- 12,941
- vs nation
- D+53.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic71.7%8,683BushRepublican27.3%3,313OtherAll other candidates1.0%120
D+44.3- Lead
- 5,370
- Total
- 12,116
- vs nation
- D+46.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic71.4%6,540BushRepublican24.2%2,215NaderGreen3.8%344
D+47.2- Lead
- 4,325
- Total
- 9,161
- vs nation
- D+46.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic72.5%6,995DoleRepublican20.1%1,938PerotReform4.2%405
D+52.4- Lead
- 5,057
- Total
- 9,647
- vs nation
- D+43.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+27.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 26,8502024 5-year
- Median household income
- $49,4312024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 17.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 75.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+60.6 in 2008MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+18.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Rio Arriba County, NM · twin score 98.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 50.8%11,180 participants ÷ 22,019 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +10.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -5.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 40.6%–42.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 10,840 | 21,943 | 49.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 9,300 | 21,787 | 42.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 11,593 | 21,915 | 52.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 9,468 | 22,139 | 42.8% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 11,180 | 22,019 | 50.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
62 precincts · 10,925 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000023000023 | 491 | 312 | 6 | 809 | 60.7% | 38.6% | D+22.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000026000026 | 444 | 193 | 9 | 646 | 68.7% | 29.9% | D+38.9 |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 332 | 244 | 15 | 591 | 56.2% | 41.3% | D+14.9 |
| Precinct -000027000027 | 379 | 200 | 0 | 579 | 65.5% | 34.5% | D+30.9 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 394 | 157 | 0 | 551 | 71.5% | 28.5% | D+43.0 |
| Precinct -000019000019 | 282 | 145 | 8 | 435 | 64.8% | 33.3% | D+31.5 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 262 | 166 | 0 | 428 | 61.2% | 38.8% | D+22.4 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 256 | 170 | 0 | 426 | 60.1% | 39.9% | D+20.2 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 251 | 170 | 0 | 421 | 59.6% | 40.4% | D+19.2 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 297 | 99 | 8 | 404 | 73.5% | 24.5% | D+49.0 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 280 | 94 | 0 | 374 | 74.9% | 25.1% | D+49.7 |
| Precinct -000034000034 | 235 | 124 | 0 | 359 | 65.5% | 34.5% | D+30.9 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 235 | 120 | 0 | 355 | 66.2% | 33.8% | D+32.4 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 233 | 121 | 0 | 354 | 65.8% | 34.2% | D+31.6 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 221 | 129 | 0 | 350 | 63.1% | 36.9% | D+26.3 |
| Precinct -000029000029 | 231 | 108 | 0 | 339 | 68.1% | 31.9% | D+36.3 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 175 | 140 | 0 | 315 | 55.6% | 44.4% | D+11.1 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 212 | 86 | 0 | 298 | 71.1% | 28.9% | D+42.3 |
| Precinct -000031000031 | 197 | 97 | 0 | 294 | 67.0% | 33.0% | D+34.0 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 187 | 106 | 0 | 293 | 63.8% | 36.2% | D+27.6 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 217 | 66 | 0 | 283 | 76.7% | 23.3% | D+53.4 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 144 | 124 | 0 | 268 | 53.7% | 46.3% | D+7.5 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 168 | 96 | 0 | 264 | 63.6% | 36.4% | D+27.3 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 172 | 68 | 0 | 240 | 71.7% | 28.3% | D+43.3 |
| Precinct -000030000030 | 144 | 71 | 7 | 222 | 64.9% | 32.0% | D+32.9 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 120 | 95 | 0 | 215 | 55.8% | 44.2% | D+11.6 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 127 | 66 | 0 | 193 | 65.8% | 34.2% | D+31.6 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 115 | 64 | 0 | 179 | 64.2% | 35.8% | D+28.5 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 42 | 115 | 0 | 157 | 26.8% | 73.2% | R+46.5 |
| Precinct -000032000032 | 50 | 58 | 0 | 108 | 46.3% | 53.7% | R+7.4 |
| Precinct -000020000020 | 40 | 23 | 0 | 63 | 63.5% | 36.5% | D+27.0 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 13 | 30 | 0 | 43 | 30.2% | 69.8% | R+39.5 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 36 | 77.8% | 22.2% | D+55.6 |
| Precinct -000033000033 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 33 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.3 |
| San Miguel County Precinct 135_350471 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1035_3504710 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1135_3504711 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1235_3504712 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1335_3504713 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1435_3504714 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1535_3504715 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1635_3504716 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1735_3504717 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1835_3504718 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 1935_3504719 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 235_350472 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2035_3504720 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2135_3504721 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2235_3504722 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2335_3504723 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2435_3504724 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2535_3504725 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2635_3504726 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2735_3504727 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 2835_3504728 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 335_350473 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 435_350474 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 535_350475 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 635_350476 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 735_350477 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 835_350478 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Miguel County Precinct 935_350479 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | −16.6% |
| 1916 | −13.5% |
| 1920 | −16.2% |
| 1924 | −4.6% |
| 1928 | −18.6% |
| 1932 | −2.8% |
| 1936 | +13.8% |
| 1940 | +10.7% |
| 1944 | +7.7% |
| 1948 | +3.1% |
| 1952 | −9.3% |
| 1956 | −11.7% |
| 1960 | +16.1% |
| 1964 | +35.9% |
| 1968 | +0.7% |
| 1972 | +2.5% |
| 1976 | +24.0% |
| 1980 | +14.6% |
| 1984 | +19.7% |
| 1988 | +37.3% |
| 1992 | +42.6% |
| 1996 | +52.4% |
| 2000 | +47.2% |
| 2004 | +44.3% |
| 2008 | +60.6% |
| 2012 | +56.9% |
| 2016 | +46.2% |
| 2020 | +38.7% |
| 2024 | +27.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 74.2%8,015 | 25.8%2,792 | 10,807 |
| 2020 | D | 74.6%8,455 | 25.4%2,884 | 11,339 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+42.9
Presidential vote · 2024D+27.9
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 15 points more Democratic.
17,953 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−44 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −3,064 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,615 in average income, against $46,972 for residents who stayed — 3% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+32.2 on average — 4.3 points more Democratic-leaning than San Miguel County, NM itself (D+27.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Santa Fe County, NM112D+48.9
- Bernalillo County, NM80D+21.0
- Mora County, NM27D+17.2
- Sandoval County, NM22D+5.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Bernalillo County, NM121
- Santa Fe County, NM89
- Sandoval County, NM39
- Mora County, NM21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −143 |
| 2012 | −407 |
| 2013 | −469 |
| 2014 | −440 |
| 2015 | −382 |
| 2016 | −217 |
| 2017 | −284 |
| 2018 | −218 |
| 2019 | −222 |
| 2021 | +101 |
| 2022 | −113 |
| 2023 | −132 |
| 2024 | −94 |
| 2025 | −44 |
San Miguel County, anchored by Las Vegas, N.M., combines a majority-Hispanic electorate with deep rural roots to produce presidential margins consistently exceeding D+25, making it an outlier among similarly sized rural counties nationwide.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 60.6 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 18.6 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 10.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.9 points.
A population of 26,850, a 18% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $49,431 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Rio Arriba County and Mora County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Rio Arriba County
New Mexico
98.6twin score
2012–2016 trajectory% Catholic% Latino
Mora County
New Mexico
96.0twin score
2008–2012 trajectory% Catholic% Latino≠ elasticity
Taos County
New Mexico
95.1twin score
2004–2016 trajectory≠ 12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
San Miguel County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35047/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in San Miguel County
New Mexico at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did San Miguel County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, San Miguel County, New Mexico voted Democratic by 27.9 points (D+27.9), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 11,108 votes cast, 6,985 went Democratic and 3,887 went Republican.
When did San Miguel County, New Mexico last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which San Miguel County, New Mexico voted Republican was 1956.
How many people live in San Miguel County, New Mexico?
San Miguel County, New Mexico has a population of 26,850 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in San Miguel County, New Mexico?
Median household income in San Miguel County, New Mexico is $49,431 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of San Miguel County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in San Miguel County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 8 went Republican.